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NEW YORK – With a second face-to-face showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump unlikely – and with a margin-of-error race with five weeks until Election Day in November – there’s a lot on the line in the vice presidential debate.

While debates between the running mates are the undercard of a White House race and have rarely moved the need much in the past, when Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democrats’ nominee, face-off on Tuesday, there will be heightened stakes.

Any major knockout blow – or agonizing misstep – could turn what’s traditionally seen as a second-tier event into an impactful showdown.

‘Given that we’re only likely to have one head-to-head matchup between the principal candidates and this is the last meet up between the two tickets directly before the election, it heightens the importance and significance of this debate,’ longtime Republican strategist and communicator Ryan Williams, a veteran of multiple presidential campaigns, told Fox News.

Most political pundits said that Harris bested Trump last month in their first and likely only debate. And flash polls of debate watchers agreed. 

So a strong showing by Vance in Tuesday’s vice presidential debate could give Trump a boost. 

And there’s a precedent from twelve years ago.

After a shaky first debate by then-President Barack Obama against 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, then-Vice President Joe Biden’s well-regarded performance in the running mate debate against Romney running mate Rep. Paul Ryan gave the Democrats’ ticket a big boost.

Heading into the 2024 vice presidential debate, the 40-year-old Vance has been very talkative, sitting for scores of interviews and taking plenty of questions from reporters on the campaign trail. 

Walz, who is 60, has been much more reluctant to speak with the national news media. 

The governor has been in debate camp ahead of the showdown, to prepare. Walz huddled with advisers and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg – who played the role of Vance in mock debates – in Harbor Springs, Michigan, near the northern tip of the state’s lower peninsula.

Also helping out – Walz’s wife – Minnesota First Lady Gwen Walz.

Asked on the eve of the showdown with Vance how his wife had been helping him with debate preparation, Walz told reporters ‘she wins every one.’

A source familiar with Vance’s debate prep tells Fox News Digital that over the last month, the senator took part in a series of murder board sessions with his team, where a group of people who ask tough questions and have candid discussions to help someone prepare for a difficult examination or test, or in Vance’s case, a vice presidential debate.

According to the source, Vance conducted a mock debate over the past week, with Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the House majority whip, playing the role of Walz. Former Trump administration Treasury Department assistant secretary Monica Crowley played the role of one of the moderators from CBS News, which is hosting the debate in New York City.

Halfway through the mock debate, the power went out, as a strong storm slammed through the vicinity of Cincinnati, Ohio, where Vance lives and where the prep session was held. But according to the source, who shared the details first with Fox News, Vance and the team continued on, using lanterns for lighting and cellphones for timers.

Emmer and Walz overlapped for four years in the House before Walz won election in 2018 as Minnesota’s governor. ‘I do know him probably as well or better than most on the Republican side,’ he said.

And Emmer, taking a shot at his fellow Minnesotan, argued ‘the hardest part of playing Walz… is trying to tell lies with a straight face, because that’s what he does. He’s good at the debate game, but there isn’t substance there. There’s a lot of air.’

Former President Trump, asked Monday if he had given his running mate any advice, told reporters, ‘No, he doesn’t need it.’

But he added that he and Vance had ‘been speaking a little bit back and forth’ and that he thought the senator was in ‘good shape.’

Part of the Trump campaign’s strategy ahead of the debate is to raise expectations for Walz.

‘Walz is very good in debates. I want to repeat that. Tim Walz is very good in debates. Really good. He’s been a politician for nearly 20 years. He’ll be very well prepared for tomorrow night,’ Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller told reporters on Monday.

Walz comes into the debate with better poll numbers than Vance.

According to the latest Fox News national poll, Walz was slightly above water with a 43% favorable rating and a 40% unfavorable rating.

Vance stood in negative territory, at 38%-50% favorable/unfavorable.

The senator arrived in New York City on Monday afternoon, and in the evening took a break from debate preparations to headline a gathering of GOP mega donors.

Walz was scheduled to fly to New York City on Tuesday, ahead of the debate.

The vice presidential debate is being moderated by ‘CBS Evening News’ anchor and managing editor Norah O’Donnell and ‘Face the Nation’ host and chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan. 

The 90-minute debate, which kicks off at 9pm ET, will take place at the CBS News broadcast center in New York City.

The Fox News Channel, FOX Business Network, Fox News Digital, Fox News Audio and Fox Nation will air special programming of the debate. 

Both the Harris and Trump campaigns agreed to two four-minute commercial breaks during the debate. Campaign staff are not allowed to interact with the candidates during those breaks.

The other rules  – including no studio audience – are similar to September’s Harris-Trump debate and June’s debate between Trump and President Biden.

But there is one major difference – a candidate’s microphone won’t be muted when the opponent is speaking.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

At an all-hands meeting Thursday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman denied that there are plans for him to receive a “giant equity stake” in the company, calling that information “just not true,” according to a person who was in attendance.

Altman and finance chief Sarah Friar both said at the meeting, conducted by video, that investors have raised concerns about Altman not having equity in the high-valued artificial intelligence company that he co-founded almost nine years ago, said the person, who asked not to be named because the gathering was only for employees.

Regarding his potentially attaining an equity stake, Altman said, “There are no current plans here,” the person said.

OpenAI Chairman Bret Taylor told CNBC in a statement that while the board has talked about the matter, no specific figures are on the table.

“The board has had discussions about whether it would be beneficial to the company and our mission to have Sam be compensated with equity, but no specific figures have been discussed nor have any decisions been made,” Taylor said.

The meeting late Thursday followed the board’s decision to consider restructuring the company to a for-profit business, according to a separate person with knowledge of the matter. Should the change occur, the nonprofit segment would remain as a separate entity, said the person, who asked not to be named because no plan has been finalized.

While directors consider OpenAI’s future, key executives continue to walk out the door.

On Wednesday, three execs announced their departures. OpenAI Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati, who briefly served as interim CEO, said she would be leaving after 6½ years. Later in the day, research chief Bob McGrew and Barret Zoph, a research vice president, said they were leaving the company.

In an interview Thursday at Italian Tech Week, Altman said, “I think this will be hopefully a great transition for everyone involved and I hope OpenAI will be stronger for it, as we are for all of our transitions.”

Altman said the departures were not related to the company’s potential restructuring, contrary to some media reports.

“Most of the stuff I saw was also just totally wrong,” Altman said at the event in Turin, Italy. “But we have been thinking about that, our board has, for almost a year independently, as we think about what it takes to get to our next stage. But I think this is just about people being ready for new chapters of their lives and a new generation of leadership.”

Murati wrote in a memo to the company that she’s “stepping away because I want to create the time and space to do my own exploration.” She said her focus will be on ensuring a “smooth transition.”

Before Thursday’s moves, OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever and former safety leader Jan Leike announced their departures in May. Co-founder John Schulman said last month that he was leaving to join rival Anthropic.

OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft, is currently pursuing a funding round that would value the company at more than $150 billion, people familiar with the matter told CNBC. Thrive Capital is leading the round and plans to invest $1 billion, and Tiger Global is planning to join as well.

While OpenAI has been in hypergrowth mode since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, it’s been simultaneously riddled with controversy and executive departures, with some current and former employees concerned that the company is growing too quickly to operate safely.

Altman was ousted in November, before being quickly reinstated. Almost all of OpenAI’s employees signed an open letter saying they would leave in response to the board’s action. Days later, Altman was back at the company and Murati moved from interim CEO back to the role of CTO.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Tiger Woods’ new logo for his Sun Day Red golf apparel line is facing a trademark dispute.

Tigeraire, a company that makes cooling products for athletes, has filed a notice of opposition with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, alleging that Sun Day Red and Tiger Woods have “unlawfully hijacked” Tigeraire’s design into their own branding.

“The actions of SDR, TaylorMade and Tiger Woods blatantly ignore Tigeraire’s long-standing protected mark, brand and identity, violate federal and state intellectual property law, and disregard the consumer confusion their actions create. SDR’s application should be denied,” the court filing said.

The Tigeraire logo, left, and Sun Day Red’s logo.U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

TaylorMade Golf, the company behind Sun Day Red, told CNBC, “We have full confidence in the securitization of our trademarks.”

Sun Day Red was launched in May, following Woods’ 27-year partnership with Nike.

The brand pays homage to the fact that Woods always wears red on Sundays and the logo is a tribute to the 15 majors he’s won over the course of his career, Woods said previously.

“Sun Day Red continues to penetrate the North American marketplace,” TaylorMade CEO David Abeles said. “Our products have been extremely well received.”

A spokesman for Woods declined to comment on the matter.

Woods and the Sun Day Red team will have 40 days to file an answer on the notice.

The opposition proceeding will bring the trademark application that Woods filed for his new logo to a halt, Josh Gerben, a trademark attorney, told CNBC. It is unlikely to affect future production of the line, though, he said.

“They now likely give themselves an opportunity to negotiate with Tiger and TaylorMade to see if there’s a resolution that might be had,” Gerben said.

He expects the case to settle before it gets close to a trial.

“By filing this opposition, the portable fan company really basically gets them a seat at the table to negotiate,” he said. “Because in order for Tiger and TaylorMade to get this trademark registered there, you’re gonna have to win this case.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

With a potential strike at ports up and down the East Coast and along the Gulf Coast set to begin after midnight Monday, logistics executives tell CNBC the remaining hours are critical in moving out as much trade as possible before a shutdown that will do serious damage to the functioning of the U.S. economy.

Based on data from ImportGenius, which tracks the Bills of Lading — the digital receipts of cargo containers — a total of 54,456 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) arrived on Friday at the 14 ports operating under the Master Contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) which expires at midnight Monday. The approximate value of that freight was upwards of $2.7 billion, based on an MDS Transmodal estimate of $50,000 per container. For the weekdays between September 23-27, a total of 273,417 TEUs were imputed through customs at these ports with a value of approximately $13.67 billion.

Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, said the enormity of the freight volumes arriving Friday alone shows the scramble logistics companies are in to get the containers off the dock by close of business Monday. “Importers, in coordination with their logistic partners, should try to clear as many of their containers off open terminals where possible to avoid possible delays in acquiring their inventory,” said Baer.

On average, it takes one week to clear out one day of a port closure. As much as 43% to 49% of total containerized goods entering the U.S are processed through ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast. 

Michael Kanko, CEO of ImportGenius, tells CNBC the economic importance of the ports impacted by an ILA strike is profound. “As our data shows, a strike of even a week will block the flow of hundreds of thousands of containers into the U.S.,” he said. “These ports are also a major gateway into the U.S. for refrigerated produce. Time isn’t on the side of importers.” 

“Every importer, exporter, and even domestic shippers should be watching developments very closely this week because the impacts of a port strike on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports could potentially impact all modes if there is a strike, and if it lasts longer than a few days,” said Brian Bourke, global chief commercial officer of Seko Logistics.

The ILA is North America’s largest longshoremen’s union. In a social media post on Sunday, the ILA said its 85,000 members, “joined in solidarity by tens of thousands of dockworkers and maritime workers around the world,” will hit the picket lines at 12:01 am on Tuesday, October 1, and strike at all Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports from Maine to Texas.

Approximately 50,000 ILA union members work at the ports of Boston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Wilmington, Baltimore, Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah, Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, New Orleans, Mobile, and Houston.

No negotiations were underway and none were planned before the Monday deadline, according to a Reuters report.

In recent days, top Biden administration officials including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, and Director of the National Economic Council Lael Brainard spoke separately with USMX and ILA representatives urging the parties to come to a fair agreement quickly. The Biden administration has stated on several recent occasions that it will not use federal powers to force dock workers to remain on the job. “We’ve never invoked Taft-Hartley to break a strike and are not considering doing so now,” White House officials have said.

The union suspended talks with the USMX in June over issues including use of automation at ports and wages, and the ports ownership group has said in recent weeks that the ILA continues to “strongly signal” that it has already made the decision to strike.

A ports strike could threaten the recent gains made in bringing down inflation and the prices paid by consumers across a wide range of goods, and could give former President Donald Trump another talking point over the key voter issue of the economy in the final month of campaigning.

Based on prior port strikes, ocean carriers normally profit from soaring freight rates based on demand for other ports as well as detention and demurrage fees on containers stranded during a ports shutdown. Analysts have been warning ocean spot rates could increase by 20%-50%. UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk’s total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Maersk is on the board of USMX. UBS estimated that if freight rates increased 30% over two quarters, a revenue tailwind of over $1 billion would be generated.

Meanwhile, union support is a critical issue for the Democrats, and President Biden recently emphasized to reporters he “did not like” Taft-Hartley. 

Business trade groups have urged the Biden administration to step in. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce released a poll on Monday morning showing that a majority of both registered voters (58%) and the general population (54%) support the Biden administration intervening and ordering the union to work and negotiate through the use of Taft-Hartley. Roughly 20% of respondents said they were opposed to federal intervention.

In a recent video featuring ILA president Harold Daggett played for rank-and-file union members, who voted unanimously to authorize a strike, he threatened an intentional worker slowdown in moving containers if the Biden administration forces the union workers back to the docks using the Taft-Hartley Act. “You’re better off sitting down and let’s get a contract and let’s move on with this,” he said.

U.S. Customs data showed a wide variety of products still arriving at the Port of New York/New Jersey, the largest port on the East Coast, on Friday — containers holding cosmetics and perfume from Estee Lauder and L’oreal, auto parts and tires, and electrical materials and circuit breakers from automation and electrical leader ABB.

Hundreds of containers came in over the past week for retailers from Walmart to Walgreens, filled with winter clothes, food, electronics, towels, and holiday items, from Disney Halloween pieces to Christmas string lights.

Walmart is the largest importer across all of the threatened ports, according to ImportGenius data.

A spokesman for the Port Authority of NY/NJ said it is closely monitoring developments. The port began preparations for a strike two weeks ago.

“We are coordinating with partners across the supply chain to prepare for any potential impacts,” the spokesman said. “For the over 600,000 regional jobs our port supports and the $240 billion in goods moved through here each year, we urge both sides to find common ground and keep the cargo flowing for the good of the national economy.”

Depending on the length of a strike, the toll on the U.S. economy could reach well into the tens of billions of dollars. For the Port of New York/New Jersey, economic impact could run as high as $641 million per day; while in Virginia, an economic impact of $600 million per day is possible, according to an analysis from Mitre.

East Coast ports in the U.S. are forecast to handle 2.3 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) in October. That translates to 74,000 shipping containers per day, and a value of daily freight upwards of $3.7 billion.

Steve Lamar, American Apparel & Footwear Association president, recently told CNBC that a disruption to the East and Gulf Coast ports would have major impacts on the cost and availability of apparel, footwear, and travel goods, as more than half of all apparel, footwear and accessories move through these ports.

German footwear giant Birkenstock had over 32,000 packages and cargo imported and processed at the Port of Virginia in Norfolk between September 23-Sept. 27.

Amazon.com Services, a subsidiary of Amazon.com that provides e-commerce services for third-party sellers, had over 26,000 mini smart cameras and other products arrive and clear customs between September 23 and Sept. 25.

Ace Hardware had over 64,000 items in 57 containers processed through Customs between September 23-and Sept. 26.

Anheuser-Busch InBev was also among major importers with product cleared through Customs in recent days.

Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, said conversations with clients on freight pickup strategy have been taking place over the past two weeks.

“If shippers waited until Monday to bring on additional trucks to pick up their freight, I feel it may be too late to get available containers out of the terminals so they can avoid excessive demurrage charges during the strike,” Brashier said. “Shippers should not be lulled into a false sense of security during the strike, as just like during Covid, the breakdown in the supply chain did not occur until after operations resumed after shut down,” he said.

In a recent advisory to clients, the Georgia Ports Authority recommended import delivery “well before October 1 to minimize any disruptions.”

In addition to apparel, the Port of Savannah saw on Friday thousands of LED panels, Keurig Coffee brewers, and wine for Constellation Brands. In the Port of Houston, Tempur-Pedic mattresses and products for Home Depot and Ikea were identified as arriving Friday.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Hezbollah is believed to be the most heavily armed non-state group in the world. Backed by Iran and based in the eastern Mediterranean country of Lebanon, the Shiite Islamist group has been engaged in confrontations with Israeli forces on Lebanon’s southern border since October 8.

Hezbollah first fired at Israel to protest the war in Gaza, demanding a ceasefire there as a condition to end its attacks. Cross-border hostilities have since escalated, culminating in the death of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital Beirut.

The cross-border conflict and recent developments have raised the specter of a regional conflagration and amplified intense diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. Though no match for Israel’s military might, Hezbollah’s increasingly sophisticated arsenal has the potential to inflict significant damage on Israel.

Israel would also have to contend with Hezbollah’s strategic depth. The group is part of an Iran-led axis of militants spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq. Some of these groups have increased coordination significantly since October, when Israel launched a war in Gaza after Hamas-led militants attacked the country. This axis is known in Israel as the “ring of fire.”

For nearly a year, Hezbollah’s partners in the region have been engaged in a simmering conflict with Israel and its allies. Yemen’s Houthis have sporadically fired at vessels in the Red Sea, an artery of global trade, as well as on Israel. Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of hardline Shiite factions, has also launched attacks on US positions in that country. The axis has conditioned the cessation of those hostilities on a ceasefire in Gaza, rebranding themselves as a “supportive front” for Palestinians in Gaza, as described by a senior Hezbollah leader.

In September, Israel stepped up its direct confrontation with Hezbollah. In back-to-back attacks, hundreds of Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies exploded, killing at least 37 people and injuring thousands, before an Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander. In response, Hezbollah has vowed “a battle without limits.”

Following the twin communications attacks, Hezbollah launched what it said was a ballistic missile at Israel, targeting the headquarters of Israel’s intelligence service Mossad. It is believed to be the first ballistic missile to be launched by militant group toward Israel. The strike, which was intercepted, reached near the bustling city of Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah’s fighting force emerged from the rubble of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Beirut. At the time, it was a rag-tag group of Islamist fighters supported by Iran’s fledgling Islamic Republic. This was followed by a meteoric rise in the group’s military and political might. In 2000, its guerrilla fighters forced Israeli forces to withdraw from south Lebanon, ending a more-than-20-year occupation. In 2006, it survived a 34-day war with Israel that wreaked havoc on Lebanon.

During Syria’s uprising-turned-civil war in the 2010s, it fought on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as he brutally quashed armed opposition forces and inflicted a huge civilian death toll. As it fought in the trenches of that nearly decade-long war, Hezbollah became seasoned in urban warfare and solidified its alliances with other Iran-backed groups fighting in Syria. It also cleared a vital supply route for weapons between Iran and Lebanon, via its partners in Iraq and Syria, further bolstering its arsenal.

Hezbollah’s military capabilities have notably grown since its last war with Israel in 2006. Military analysts estimate Hezbollah to have between 30,000 and 50,000 troops, but earlier this year its leader Nasrallah claimed it has more than 100,000 fighters and reservists. The group is also believed to possess between 120,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles.

Experts say the group’s biggest military asset is the long-range ballistic missile, of which it is estimated to have thousands, including 1,500 precision missiles with ranges of 250–300 kilometers (155–186 miles).

Throughout its decades-long conflict with Israel, Hezbollah has been engaged in asymmetric warfare. It has sought to grow its political and military might, while seeking to establish deterrence despite Israel’s military superiority.

But Hezbollah threads the needle carefully. Provoking Israel’s full firepower could significantly degrade the group’s capabilities, setting it back years – if not decades – and destroying large parts of Lebanon, which has buckled under the weight of its years-long financial crisis.

As the confrontations at the border continue, Hezbollah has sought, with some success, to undermine Israel’s vaunted missile defense system known as the Iron Dome. It has tried to do so by attacking its platforms and overwhelming it with swarms of drones and short-range missiles in order to open a path for other projectiles to reach deeper into Israeli territory.

The full extent of Hezbollah’s arsenal is not clear. In response to Israel’s twin wireless device attacks, Hezbollah fired a barrage of missiles across the border into northern Israel, and said it hit an air base with Fadi 1 and Fadi 2 missiles – a longer-range weapon not known to have been used so far in nearly a year of conflict.

Hezbollah’s chances of survival in an all-out war with Israel is hinged on whether or not it can outsmart these systems which have in recent months intercepted thousands of airborne weapons from Iran, Gaza and Lebanon.

Because of Hezbollah’s growing power, a possible all-out war between Israel and Lebanon would thrust the Middle East into uncharted waters. The diplomatic effort to prevent it is likely to continue at a breathless pace.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a step toward changing “the balance of power in the region for years to come,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Saturday.

Israel’s leader sees an opportunity opening up for a fundamental reconfiguration of power in Middle East and he may assume that Hezbollah are mortally wounded. Total victory, however, is elusive, and those who get what they wish for often live to regret it.

Since Sept 17, Israel has dealt the Iran-backed militant group one body blow after another in Lebanon — first the pager and walkie talkie blasts, then a massive air strike on southern Beirut which killed senior commander Ibrahim Aqil (along with at least two dozen civilians), followed three days later by the start of a brutal bombing campaign. By Friday evening – when Nasrallah was killed in a bombing that flattened multiple buildings – Hizballah’s senior leadership had been almost totally eliminated.

Yet recent history offers only bitter lessons for Israeli leaders — and others — who entertain grand ambitions for tectonic changes in Lebanon, and in the Middle East in general.

In June 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon with the goal of crushing the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. Beyond that, it hoped to establish a malleable Christian-dominated government in Beirut and to drive Syrian forces out of the country.

It failed at all three. Yes, Palestinian armed groups in Lebanon were compelled to leave the country under an American-brokered deal that sent them into exile in Tunisia, Yemen and elsewhere. But the goal of quashing Palestinian national aspirations along with the PLO failed. Five years later, the First Palestinian Intifada, or uprising,broke out in Gaza and spread to the West Bank. Today the Palestinians are as adamant and restive as they’ve ever been in their rejection of Israeli occupation.

Israel’s main ally in Lebanon at the time of the invasion was Bashir Al-Gemayel, a Maronite Christian militia leader who was elected by parliament, but before he took office was assassinated in a massive blast in east Beirut. His brother, Amin, replaced him, and under his leadership and with active American involvement and encouragement in May 1983 Lebanon and Israel signed an agreement for the establishment of normal bilateral relations. In the face of intense opposition, the government fell the following February and soon the agreement was abrogated.

The US, which had deployed troops to Beirut after the September 1982 Sabra-Shatila massacres, pulled out after its embassy was twice bombed, along with the US marines and French army barracks in October 1983.

The Lebanese civil war re-erupted and raged on more than six years.

Syrian forces, which had entered Lebanon in 1976 as a “deterrence force” under an Arab League mandate, didn’t leave until 2005 after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri.

Perhaps the most significant outcome of the 1982 Israeli invasion was the birth of Hezbollah, which went on to wage a relentless guerrilla war that compelled Israel to unilaterally withdraw from south Lebanon – significantly the first and only time an Arab military force successfully pushed Israel to retreat from Arab land. This new group, with Iran’s help, proved to be far more lethal and effective than the Palestinian militants Israel had successfully driven out.

Hezbollah went on to fight Israel to a standstill in the 2006 war, and in the following years grew only stronger, with significant Iranian help.

Today Hezbollah is crippled and in disarray, and clearly infiltrated by Israeli intelligence – but still, it would be premature to write its epitaph.

Beyond Lebanon and Israel, there is the example of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, a lesson in the wages of unfettered hubris. As the Iraqi army crumbled and US troops raced to Baghdad, the George W. Bush administration entertained fantasies that the fall of Saddam Hussein would lead to the toppling of regimes in Tehran and Damascus, and ignite a flowering of liberal democracies across the region.

Instead the US occupation of Iraq descended into a blood bath of sectarian violence, in which the US paid dearly in blood and treasure, the people of Iraq even more. The killing of Saddam Hussain allowed Iran to spread its influence to the very heart of the political establishment in Baghdad. Al-Qaeda, shattered by the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, was reborn in Iraq’s Sunni triangle, and eventually morphed into the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

As I write this, I see smoke rising from across Beirut’s battered southern suburbs and recall the words of then-US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who, during the 2006 Israel-Hizballah war, said all the bloodshed and destruction we were witnessing then were “the birth pangs of the new Middle East.”

Beware of those who promise a new dawn, the birth of a new Middle East, a new balance of power in the region. Lebanon is a microcosm of all that can go wrong. It’s the land of unintended consequences.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An eerie calm fell over the Lebanese capital in the hours after Israeli warplanes pummelled its southern suburbs, Hezbollah’s seat of power where hundreds of thousands of civilians live.

The Iran-backed group’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday in a massive bombardment that was the first of the nearly 48 hours of incessant airstrikes. Scores of top commanders and officials were killed alongside him as well as in the attacks that followed. Many civilians are also believed to have been killed.

More than 24 hours after Nasrallah’s body was recovered from the deep pit left behind by the heavy bombs that killed him, a funeral for the militant leader is yet to be scheduled – highly unusual in Islamic tradition where the dead receive a quick burial.

The group is also yet to appoint a new secretary general, defying long-held expectations that the group would rapidly unfurl a succession plan after Nasrallah’s death.

This has added to a pervading sense that Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant group which for decades dominated the country’s politics, had swiftly become a ghost organization. In one fell swoop, Israel seemed to remove not just the group’s leadership, but perhaps also all its contingency plans, further evidence of the profound scope of Israel’s infiltration of the group’s ranks.

“It’s fabricated. There’s no proof that he’s dead,” said Hassan, a Hezbollah supporter leaning on a parked moped, his eyes glassy with tears. “He’s going to appear soon and he’s going to surprise us.”

Abu Mohamad, a middle-aged Shia man displaced from southern Lebanon to a sidewalk in central Beirut, said, “It doesn’t matter if he’s alive or dead, because a leader like Nasrallah lives in us always,” he said. “We will continue on the path he set, and we will return to our homes.”

Nasrallah inspired strong feelings in the Lebanese – revered and reviled in equal measure. But Lebanese across the divide are reeling from the tectonic shifts to the country’s political landscape, and the humanitarian devastation that it has wreaked.

Lebanese authorities believe just under 1,100 people have been killed and around 1 million have been displaced by Israel’s intensified bombardment campaign since it began last Monday. A response, Israel says, to the rocket attacks from Hezbollah that began a day after Hamas attacked on October 7, and which have forced 60,000 people from their homes in northern Israel.

Lebanon’s border villages have also been emptied of around 100,000 villagers by Israeli attacks in turn. Still, Hezbollah has vowed to keep up its border rocket fire until the end of Israel’s offensive in Gaza.

Now, large parts of the densely populated southern suburbs have been devastated. The displaced have taken to the relatively affluent, and still untouched, western parts of the capital where they have camped out on sidewalks, parks, schools, churches and mosques.

Mattresses and blankets for displaced families cover the Corniche, the city’s seaside boardwalk, known for its views of the eastern Mediterranean against the backdrop of verdant green mountains.

When Israeli bombs hit the south of the capital on Friday, the streets of west Beirut filled with people throughout the night. Some of the displaced were chatting on the curb, a few lay asleep on benches. Women cradled sleeping babies and toddlers. Children wandered the streets in their pajamas, snaking aimlessly through double parked cars.

On the city’s commercial Hamra street, a crowd outside an abandoned building forced the traffic to a near stop. A man knocked down the iron gate, allowing a flood of displaced people in for shelter.

It was 3 o’clock in the morning. Nasrallah had only recently been assassinated – though not yet confirmed by his group – and many of his supporters were trying to put on a brave face.

“We’re ok! I’m sure our home is ok. There’s nothing to worry about,” one woman in her early 60s told a group of people around her.

Days later, the sense of dread is more palpable. Many of the country’s displaced have lost loved ones but can barely find the time to grieve as they scramble for shelter and food. Those not yet personally impacted by the bombardment must contend with the unknown territory into which the death of Nasrallah and his cadre of senior leaders has thrust the country.

“The assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah came to open a wound in the heart of the Lebanese,” the Patriarch of the Maronite Church, Bechara Boutros al-Rahi said at Sunday Mass.

Rahi has long been one of Hezbollah’s most prominent critics. In January he implicitly criticized Hezbollah for dragging the south of Lebanon into conflict with its cross-border rocket and drone attacks on Israel. Hezbollah has repeatedly vowed not to cease fire on its southern border until the end of Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza.

Rahi had also condemned “the culture of death that has brought nothing but imaginary victories and shameful defeats to our country.”

Nasrallah’s main Sunni foes have also condemned the assassination. “The assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has brought Lebanon and the region to a new phase of violence. It was a cowardly act that we condemn in every way,” Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said in a post on X.

“We disagreed a lot with the late (Nasrallah) and with his party, and we met infrequently. However Lebanon serves as a tent for all, and in these extremely challenging times, our unity and our solidarity remains foundational,” Hariri continued.

Lebanon’s complex confessional power-sharing structure has mean that divisions frequently spark internal strife, political paralysis and even violence. But Israel, technically classified in Lebanon as an “enemy state,” has historically brought the fragmented country together, albeit temporarily.

Meanwhile, civilians wandering the streets for safety have borne the cost of this new war.
At central Martyr’s Square in central Beirut, against the backdrop of a poster that read in big letters “Beirut will not die” barefoot children were smeared in black dirt and families slept on straw mats. An elderly woman who fled her neighbourhood, leaving all possessions behind, was selling tissue boxes.

“We sleep on sidewalks because we have no choice,” said Umm Fawzi, from southern Beirut. “I swear that we fled only with the clothes on our back. There was not a living soul left in the neighborhood.”

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The Freedom Party secured the first far-right national parliamentary election victory in post-World War II Austria on Sunday, finishing ahead of the governing conservatives after tapping into anxieties about immigration, inflation, Ukraine and other issues. But its chances of governing were unclear.

Preliminary official results showed the Freedom Party finishing first with 29.2% of the vote and Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party was second with 26.5%. The center-left Social Democrats were in third place with 21%. The outgoing government – a coalition of Nehammer’s party and the environmentalist Greens – lost its majority in the lower house of parliament.

Herbert Kickl, a former interior minister and longtime campaign strategist who has led the Freedom Party since 2021, wants to be chancellor.

But to become Austria’s new leader, he would need a coalition partner to command a parliamentary majority. Rivals have said they won’t work with Kickl in government.

The far right has benefited from frustration over high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. It has also built on worries about migration.

In its election program, titled “Fortress Austria,” the Freedom Party calls for “remigration of uninvited foreigners,” for achieving a more “homogeneous” nation by tightly controlling borders and suspending the right to asylum via an emergency law.

The Freedom Party also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, is highly critical of Western military aid to Ukraine and wants to bow out of the European Sky Shield Initiative, a missile defense project launched by Germany. Kickl has criticized “elites” in Brussels and called for some powers to be brought back from the European Union to Austria.

“We don’t need to change our position, because we have always said that we’re ready to lead a government, we’re ready to push forward this change in Austria side by side with the people,” Kickl said in an appearance alongside other party leaders on ORF public television. “The other parties should ask themselves where they stand on democracy,” he added, arguing that they should “sleep on the result.”

Nehammer said it was “bitter” that his party missed out on first place, but noted he brought it back from lower poll ratings. He has often said he won’t form a coalition with Kickl and said that “what I said before the election, I also say after the election.”

More than 6.3 million people were eligible to vote for the new parliament in Austria, an EU member that has a policy of military neutrality.

Kickl has achieved a turnaround since Austria’s last parliamentary election in 2019. In June, the Freedom Party narrowly won a nationwide vote for the first time in the European Parliament election, which also brought gains for other European far-right parties.

Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, whose party dominates the Netherlands’ new government, congratulated the Freedom Party on social network X Sunday. So did Alice Weidel, a co-leader of the Alternative for Germany party.

The Freedom Party is a long-established force but Sunday’s result was its best yet in a national parliamentary election, beating the 26.9% it scored in 1999.

In 2019, its support slumped to 16.2% after a scandal brought down a government in which it was the junior partner. Then-vice chancellor and Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache resigned following the publication of a secretly recorded video in which he appeared to offer favors to a purported Russian investor.

The leader of the Social Democrats, a party that led many of Austria’s post-World War II governments, positioned himself as the polar opposite to Kickl. Andreas Babler ruled out governing with the far right and labeled Kickl “a threat to democracy.”

While the Freedom Party has recovered, the popularity of Nehammer’s People’s Party declined sharply compared with 2019. Support for the Greens, their coalition partner, also dropped to 8%.

During the election campaign, Nehammer portrayed his party, which has taken a tough line on immigration in recent years, as “the strong center” that would guarantee stability amid multiple crises.

But crises ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting rising energy prices and inflation also cost it support. The government also angered many Austrians in 2022 with a short-lived coronavirus vaccine mandate, the first in Europe.

But the recent flooding caused by Storm Boris that hit Austria and other countries may have helped Nehammer slightly narrow the gap as a crisis manager.

The People’s Party is the far right’s only way into government, and now holds the key to forming any administration.

Nehammer repeatedly excluded joining a government led by Kickl, describing him as a “security risk” for the country, but didn’t rule out a coalition with the Freedom Party itself — which would imply Kickl renouncing a position in government. But that looks very unlikely with the Freedom Party in first place.

The alternative would be an alliance between the People’s Party and the Social Democrats — with or without the liberal Neos, who took 9% of the vote.

A final official result will be published later in the week after a small number of remaining postal ballots have been counted, but those won’t change the outcome substantially.

About 300 protesters gathered outside the parliament building in Vienna Sunday evening, holding placards with slogans including “Kickl is a Nazi.”

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Days of heavy monsoon rains in Nepal have triggered widespread flooding and landslides across the Himalayan nation, killing almost 200 people and causing widespread destruction.

Images from the capital show much of southern Kathmandu and nearby cities underwater or buried in thick mud as incessant torrential rains caused major rivers to swell far above danger levels.

The floods and landslides have destroyed hundreds of homes, cut off highways, and downed power lines, which hit just months after the country experienced deadly record rainfall and flash flooding that scientists say has intensified as a result of the climate crisis.

Search and rescue teams have struggled to reach residents buried under their homes or trapped by flooding in remote areas.

In hard-hit Lalitpur, south of Kathmandu, images showed the Nepal Armed Police Force using zip lines to traverse a flooded river, while elsewhere rescue teams could be seen digging with their bare hands to free residents buried under mud and rubble, or using boats and helicopters to reach people stranded on rooftops.

More than 3,700 people have been rescued, police said, but authorities believe the death toll will rise as rescue teams reach more remote and cut off areas.

Floods and damage from landslides have also affected much of the central and eastern parts of the country.

The bodies of 16 people were recovered Sunday from two buses that had been traveling along a key road out of Kathmandu when they were hit by a huge landslide, according to Reuters. One image showed a tourist bus partially submerged in mud with its windshield smashed in.

Video posted by Nepal Police shows the moment a two-year-old boy was rescued from his collapsed house in Bhimeshwor, Dolakha district, following a landslide. According to police, the boy’s parents and brother died.

Parts of the capital reported rain up to 322.2 millimeters (12.7 inches), pushing the level of its main Bagmati river up 2.2 meters (7 feet) past the danger mark, Reuters reported.

Further west of the capital, one international student described how “water was rushing through the streets in Pokhara,” the country’s second most populous city and a popular tourist destination known as a gateway for trekking in the Himalayas.

On Sunday, rains had eased in several areas allowing a major clean-up operation to begin. However, Kathmandu remained cut off with three highways into the city blocked by landslides, Associated Press reported. Schools have also closed for three days, according to Reuters.

Nepal is no stranger to heavy annual monsoon rains, but experts say this year was particularly bad.

“I’ve never before seen flooding on this scale in Kathmandu,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, the environmental risks expert at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), in a statement.

Experts there said in a statement the impacts of the weekend’s extreme rainfall in Nepal have been exacerbated by rampant development and urbanization, including unplanned construction on floodplains and poor drainage.

They have called on the government and city planners to increase funding for underground stormwater and sewage systems and the restoration of wetlands to help cities absorb more water.

South Asia is home to about a quarter of the world’s population and is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of the human-caused climate crisis and its intensification of extreme weather. Recent studies have shown that Asia will only become more vulnerable to extreme rain and flooding by 2030.

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China has taken a step forward in its ambitious plan to land astronauts on the moon by 2030 – unveiling the specially designed spacesuit its crew will don for what’s expected to be a landmark mission in the country’s space program.

The new red-and-white suit – revealed by the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) over the weekend – is made to withstand the moon’s extreme temperatures, as well as radiation and dust, while allowing astronauts physical flexibility to perform tasks on the lunar surface, according to state media.

The moon-landing suit is equipped with a built-in long and short-range camera, an operations console, and a glare-proof helmet visor, according to a video shared by state broadcaster CCTV, which featured well-known Chinese astronauts Zhai Zhigang and Wang Yaping demonstrating how astronauts wearing the suit can bend and climb a ladder.

The new technology has caught international attention.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk shared a post on the platform X featuring the CCTV video and his own caption.

“Meanwhile, back in America, the [Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)] is smothering the national space program in kafkaesque paperwork!” he wrote, in an apparent reference to the perceived speed with which China has bolstered its space program relative to the US.

SpaceX’s fortunes – and Musk’s personal wealth – have been boosted in recent years by huge government contracts as NASA has sought to tap into the private sector on space exploration and logistics.

Space leader

China’s reveal of the moon-landing spacesuit comes as the country has mounted a significant effort to establish itself a major player in space – a domain that nations, including the United States, are increasingly looking to not only for scientific benefit, but also with an eye to resources and national security.

The China National Space Administration has in recent years carried out a series of increasingly complex robotic lunar missions, including the first-ever return of lunar samples from the far side of the moon earlier this year. It has been angling to become the second country to land astronauts on the moon, saying its first crewed mission will take place “by 2030.”

The US, which has not sent astronauts to the moon since 1972, is also planning to send a crew this decade, though it has delayed its initial timeline for its Artemis III mission. That mission will not take off until at least September 2026, NASA said earlier this year. The agency revealed a protoype of its Artemis III spacesuit prototype, the AxEMU, in 2023.

China’s new spacesuit was hailed across state media as a major step forward in the country’s crewed mission timeline, with experts noting the need for specifically formulated suit for lunar conditions versus those used in spacewalks by astronauts at China’s Tiangong orbital space station.

Thanks to its thin exosphere, the moon is an unforgiving place, exposed to both the sun’s rays and the cold of space. Temperatures near the Moon’s equator, for example, can spike to 250°F (121°C) in the day and then plunge at night to -208°F (-133°C), according to NASA.

“Unlike low-Earth orbit missions, astronauts will be in a harsh natural lunar environment during lunar extravehicular activities. Complex environmental factors such as high vacuum and low gravity, lunar dust and lunar soil, complex lunar surface terrain, high and low temperatures, and strong radiation will have a significant impact on work and protection,” Wu Zhiqiang, deputy chief designer of astronaut systems at the China Astronaut Research and Training Center, told state broadcaster CCTV.

Others also hailed the aesthetics of the suit, with state media describing the red stripes on its upper limbs are inspired by ribbons from the “flying apsaras,” or deities that appear in ancient art in western China’s Dunhuang city, while those on its lower limbs resembling “rocket launch flames.”

Another designer, Wang Chunhui, told state media the suit’s proportions would make the astronauts “look more spirited and majestic” and “make us Chinese look strong and beautiful when we step on the moon.”

Earlier this year, Chinese officials released the name of the spacecraft for the crewed lunar mission – with the spaceship dubbed Mengzhou, or Dream Vessel, the lander, Lanyue, or Embracing the Moon.

The mission is designed as part of a broader set of lunar ambitions, which include China’s plans to establish an international lunar research station at the moon’s south pole by 2040.

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