Warsaw’s liberal mayor and his insurgent populist challenger are locked in a dead heat as they fight for the presidency of Poland, exit polls projected after Sunday’s head-to-head vote, leaving the country tilting between two wildly different political futures.

Exit polls showed Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki essentially tied, with Trzaskowski ahead by less than one percentage point after Sunday’s run-off election.

Should Trzaskowski prevail, he would end the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s 10-year occupancy of the presidential palace – the last political stronghold of the populist bloc that once ruled Poland with near-total authority – and see the mayor claim nationwide power at the second attempt.

But the margins were close enough to throw both candidates – and the country’s 38 million residents – into a nervous night of counting, with a final result likely to be announced in the coming hours.

The result carries huge significance for Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose pledge to erase PiS’ fingerprints from Poland’s embattled institutions saw him clash repeatedly with Andrzej Duda, the outgoing president who defeated Trzaskowski in 2020. Nawrocki, like Duda before him, was backed by PiS.

A Nawrocki presidency could torpedo the centrist government’s efforts to unspool the legacy of authoritarianism in the country; the 42-year-old historian would be able to yield the hugely powerful presidential veto, which Duda used frequently to thwart Tusk’s agenda.

Trzaskowski, by contrast, would be expected to essentially give Tusk an open road to press ahead with his ambitious aim of undoing the effects of PiS’ transformation of Poland, an effort that has been bogged down in recent months.

The PiS candidate is a vocal supporter of US President Donald Trump, whom he visited in the campaign’s final weeks, and received a late flurry of support from attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which held its first-ever gathering in Poland earlier this week, cementing a years-long convergence between the populist right movements in Poland and the US.

Trzaskowski, the worldly son of a celebrated Polish jazz musician, was viewed as the favorite in the election campaign, until the first round of voting two weeks ago showed him only narrowly ahead of Nawrocki and revealed greater levels of support than expected for a smattering of far-right and extreme-right figures, some of whom subsequently said they would vote for Nawrocki.

Nawrocki is a first-time politician who has led two influential cultural bodies in Poland – the Museum of the Second World War in Gdansk, and then the Institute of National Remembrance, a state-funded research facility whose purpose became increasingly politicized as PiS took a nationalistic approach to the telling of Polish history. On the campaign trail, he emphasized his Catholic faith, pledged to reduce migration, and was relentlessly critical of Brussels and of Tusk.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Mongolia has been thrown into fresh political crisis with protesters calling for the resignation of the country’s prime minister over his family’s lavish displays of wealth.

For two weeks, young Mongolians have taken to the streets of the capital putting pressure on Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai who will face a vote of confidence in his government on Monday.

Democratic Mongolia is a landlocked nation of just 3.5 million people sandwiched between authoritarian giants China and Russia, and the latest political crisis has put renewed scrutiny on the stability of the country’s democracy.

Here’s what to know:

Luxury car, designer handbags

The protests were triggered by social media posts that went viral showing the prime minister’s 23-year-old son’s lavish engagement proposal and their apparent extravagant lifestyle including helicopter-rides, an expensive ring, designer handbags and a luxury car.

Suspicion grew over how the son accumulated such wealth – especially as Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene campaigned on being from a rural, not wealthy family.

“With no visible sources of income, their display of luxury bags, private travel, and high-end living was a blatant slap in the face to the average Mongolian citizen,” said Amina, 28, a member of protest group Ogtsroh Amarhan (Resigning is Easy).

Amina, who wanted to go by one name for security reasons, said the protests go beyond the social media posts flaunting wealth, which she said were symptomatic of a widening disconnect between the ruling elite and everyday people.

Deeping the anger is the rising cost of living, soaring inflation in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and choking pollution in the capital that’s home to half the population.

“The cost of living in Mongolia has skyrocketed — many people are paying nearly half of their monthly income in taxes while barely making enough to cover food, rent, or utilities. Most are not living paycheck to paycheck anymore — they’re living loan to loan, debt to debt,” she said.

Protesters have gathered in the capital Ulaanbaatar’s central Sükhbaatar Square, in front of the Government Palace, almost daily for two weeks, calling for Oyun-Erdene to release his finances and resign.

The Prime Minister’s office called the allegations of financial impropriety “completely unfounded.”

Corruption

For decades, Mongolia has struggled with endemic graft and protests often break out over allegations that corrupt officials and business leaders were enriching themselves with public funds.

Mass protests erupted in 2022 over a corruption scandal involving the alleged embezzlement of billions of dollars’ worth of coal destined for China.

Though analysts say there is no evidence of corruption by Oyun-Erdene, his son’s social media posts deepened the frustration of a public long wary of their elected officials misusing public resources.

“I want a fair society where ordinary people have a voice, and where government officials are held accountable. Seeing so much inequality, injustice, and arrogance from those in power pushed me to speak up,” said Ariunzaya Khajidmaa, 23, a resident of Ulaanbaatar who joined the protests with her 2-month-old baby.

Part of public frustration is that even when corruption cases are prosecuted, they are slow to work their way through the judicial system, leading some to question the independence of the judiciary.

The 2024 Freedom House index said “corruption and political influence in the daily work of judges remain concerns.”

“If you look at the corruption index, it has gone down. And one explanation is that, even though the Prime Minister has exposed a lot of the corruption cases, nothing has been done. So now everybody’s looking at the judiciary,” said Bolor Lkhaajav, a Mongolian political analyst and commentator.

What’s the Prime Minister’s position?

The Prime Minister is trying to save his coalition government and parliament, called the State Great Khural, is holding a vote of confidence on Monday.

Oyun-Erdene and his son have submitted themselves to Mongolia’s anti-corruption agency and the prime minister said he would resign if the investigation uncovered any irregularities.

His Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is the largest in the 126-seat parliament, holding 68 seats. But complicating the confidence vote is that the ruling coalition appears to be breaking up. The MPP kicked out its junior partner, the Democratic Party – which controls 43 seats – after some of its members supported the protesters.

‘Tip of the iceberg’

The protests are just “the tip of the iceberg,” said Jargalsaikhan Dambadarjaa, a Mongolian broadcaster and political commentator, who pointed to some of the major economic shifts in the country.

Oyun-Erdene, who was re-elected to a second term in 2024, had promised to diversify the country’s economy, which is dependent on the mining industry accounting for about a quarter of GDP.

Mongolia has huge deposits of coal, copper, gold and phosphorite, and about 90% of Mongolia’s coal exports go to China.

Oyun-Erdene’s coalition government last year announced 14 new mega projects to boost economic growth, including cross-border railway connections and a major expansion of renewable energy.

And one of Oyun-Erdene’s signature policy centerpieces was establishing a national wealth fund, which the government said aimed to redistribute the country’s assets to the people.

The Sovereign Wealth Fund law, approved by parliament in April, allows the government to take a 34% stake in mines considered to have strategic mineral deposits, meaning they are vital for the country’s economy and development.

There are currently 16 such sites and the profits will go into the fund, with portions allocated to benefitting Mongolian people including through financial assistance, healthcare, education, and housing, according to public broadcaster Montsame.

The move has not sat well with the country’s wealthy and powerful mining elite.

“These people, they are now at the edge of losing their power – huge money – which created huge inequality in the country. So they are fighting to the death against this government,” said Jargalsaikhan.

A democracy between two autocratic giants

Mongolia has been a parliamentary democracy since its democratic revolution in 1991. But the years since have seen multiple governments toppled, or leaders shuffled.

This instability has led some Mongolians to believe the powers of President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, who is head of state, should be extended. Currently, the president can only serve one six-year term.

“In this mosaic, those who are supporting presidential power argue that, look at Russia and China, they are one-man presidential powers and they are very stable. They say, we tried this parliamentarian system and it looks like it doesn’t work. That’s their idea,” Jargalsaikhan said.

Khurelsukh has repeatedly said he does not want to change Mongolia’s parliamentary democracy. However, some believe amending the constitution to extend presidential term limits is on the table.

“It’s a very crucial time, a very delicate time, and it’s another test to our democracy,” said Jargalsaikhan. “Freedom comes only with the parliamentary system… If we don’t do that, we will be another failed economy, a failed nation.”

In a statement, the prime minister’s office said, “there has been a deliberate attempt to undermine” the reforms of the coalition government by a “hostile campaign” that would “turn Mongolia away from a parliamentary democracy and return power and wealth to a small group driven by self-interest.”

Analysts say Mongolia needs to show it can have stable governance so it can attract broader foreign investment and reduce its economic dependence on China and Russia.

Khurelsukh last year welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin for an official visit to Mongolia, a trip condemened by Ukraine. The visit was Putin’s first to a member country of the International Criminal Court which had issued an arrest warrant for Putin on charges on war crimes.

“A lot of the governments that are looking at Mongolia as an oasis of democracy between Russia and China, so they want to trust us, but at the same time, you have to show some accountability and stability for other governments to say, okay, Mongolia is getting better,” said Bolor.

Those on the streets say they are tired of political games and want to see tangible improvements to their daily lives.

“We want stronger anti-corruption measures, public officials who are held to ethical standards, and a system that ensures no one is above the law,” said Ariunzaya.

“It’s time for the government to listen to its citizens and take meaningful, lasting action—not just offer words.”

It was already hard to imagine a breakthrough emerging from the direct talks between Russia and Ukraine set to be renewed in Istanbul on Monday.

But in the aftermath of what appear to have been multiple large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes against strategic bases across Russia, it’s even less likely either side will be prepared to shift their red lines.

Even before the latest strikes, which targeted Russian strategic aircraft thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin had declined to formally set out, in the form of an agreed-to memorandum, what exactly it wants in return for ending what it refers to as its “Special Military Operation”.

But Russian officials have made no secret about their hardline terms, including sovereignty over all annexed territories, the demilitarization of Ukraine, immediate sanctions relief and what the Kremlin calls “de-Nazification”, involving things like guaranteeing the rights of Russian-speakers.

Concerns about further NATO expansion toward Russian borders – especially Ukraine, but other countries too – have also been a consistent Kremlin grievance, as has the fate of hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets abroad.

There’s been speculation in the Russian and Western media about areas for possible negotiation, and the outcome of the Istanbul talks are being closely watched for any hints of flexibility.

But in the aftermath of what appears to have been a spectacular Ukrainian success, talk of Kremlin compromises may, for the moment, be off the table.

Ukraine goes into this second round of direct talks bolstered by its apparent destruction of Russian strategic bombers and other crucial air assets.

On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky set out some of Ukraine’s positions, including an unconditional ceasefire and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia.

But Russian demands for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territory it claims but has not even conquered remain unpalatable, even more so now Ukraine has shown it can still strike deep behind the front lines.

Even before the latest Ukrainian drone strikes, amid preparations for the peace talks in Istanbul, Russia was stepping up attacks on Ukraine in what seems to be the early stages of a new summer offensive.

Overnight Saturday, Russia launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war – involving 472 drones. On Sunday, a Russian missile strike killed at least 12 people and wounded more than 60 at a training site for the Ukrainian military.

As all this unfolds, an increasingly frustrated US President Donald Trump, who used to brag he could end the Ukraine war in short order, is now watching from the sidelines as a cornerstone of his stated foreign policy looks decidedly shaky.

Neither his pressure on the Ukrainian leader, who Trump lambasted in the Oval Office, nor his recent scolding of the Kremlin ruler appear to have pushed the two sides any closer to a peace deal.

Trump still has powerful levers to pull if he chooses, like imposing tough new sanctions, such as those overwhelmingly supported in the US Senate, or adjusting US military aid in a way that would dramatically increase the costs of fighting on. The measures may not be decisive, but they would send a message of US commitment.

What Trump says he is tempted to do, though, is simply walk away from the whole mess. This is Biden’s war, he insists, or Putin’s and Zelensky’s.

But walking away – and it is unclear what that means in terms of US policy – may no longer be an option. At least not walking away unscathed.

His own insistence on ending the Ukraine conflict, along with his personal interventions with the Ukrainian and Russian leaders, means that Trump and the United States are now inextricably linked with the outcome.

That’s why events on the battlefield and at the negotiating table in Istanbul are being watched so closely.

Despite his regular attempts to disown it, the Ukraine war has very much become Trump’s war on which US credibility now hangs by a thread.

Ukraine’s large-scale drone attack on Russian air bases thousands of miles behind the front lines is the latest in a long line of daring missions by Ukraine’s forces against its giant neighbor.

The operation, more than a year and a half in the making, involved drones being smuggled into Russian territory and hidden in wooden mobile houses atop trucks, according to a source in the SBU, Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency.

The strikes caused an estimated $7 billion in damages and hit 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers at its main air bases, the source said. The assault also showed that Ukraine still has the ability to pressure Russia even as Moscow ramps up its own attacks and offensive operations.

Here’s a look at some of the Ukrainian force’s most significant hits during the war:

Undercover drones

Analysts have called Ukraine’s Sunday drone attack on the bomber bases the most significant by Kyiv since the beginning of the war.

More than 40 aircraft were known to have been hit in the operation, according to an SBU security source, including TU-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and one of Russia’s few remaining A-50 surveillance planes.

The Tu-22M3 is Russia’s long-range missile strike platform that can perform stand-off attacks, launching missiles from Russian airspace well behind the front lines to stay out of range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire.

Russia had 55 Tu-22M3 jets and 57 Tu-95s in its fleet at the beginning of the year, according to the “Military Balance 2025” from the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

The Tu-95 joined the Soviet Union air force in the 1950s, and Russia has modified them to launch cruise missiles like the Tu-22.

Military aviation expert Peter Layton said the loss of the bombers, which could carry the heaviest and most powerful cruise missiles, mean Russia will need to rely more on drones for future attacks on Ukraine.

Outside the immediate air war, the attack on the air bases will be a major distraction for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, now a military analyst in Hawaii.

“Putin will direct more resources to internal security after such a domestic security failure,” Schuster said.

“Ukraine was able to deploy dozens of containers with drones to within line of sight of major Russian strategic bases and launch massive air strikes. Can you imagine explaining that one to Putin?”

The sinking of the pride of Russia’s Black Sea fleet

One of Ukraine’s first major wins was the sinking of the cruiser Moskva, the pride of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, in the early months of war.

The Moskva was one of the Russian Navy’s most important warships and its sinking represented a massive blow to Moscow’s military, which at the time was struggling against Ukrainian resistance 50 days into Putin’s invasion.

In April, 2022, Ukraine’s Operational Command South claimed the Moskva had begun to sink after it was hit by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles.

Russia, meanwhile said a fire broke out on the guided-missile cruiser, causing munitions aboard to explode, inflicting serious damage to the vessel, and forcing the crew of the warship to be evacuated.

Analysts said its loss struck hard at the heart of the Russian navy as well as national pride, comparable to the US Navy losing a battleship during World War II or an aircraft carrier today.

What followed was a string of naval defeats for Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet.

In early 2024, six sea drones, powered by jet skis, felled a Russian guided missile ship, the Ivanovets. Night-time footage released by the Ukrainians showed Russians firing at the drones as they raced toward the Ivanovets, before at least two drones struck the side of the ship, disabling it and causing massive explosions.

Damage to the Kerch bridge

Built following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the 12-mile Kerch bridge was a vital supply line for Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine and a personal project for Putin, embodying his objective to bind the peninsula to Russia.

Russia built the bridge at a cost of around $3.7 billion

In July, 2023, Ukrainian security services claimed to have blown up the bridge using an experimental sea drone. The attack caused damage to the road lanes of the bridge, and, according to Russian officials, killed two civilians.

The bridge is a critical artery for supplying Crimea with both its daily needs and supplies for the military.

Mysterious assassinations

A number of high profile Russian military figures have been killed inside the country over the past year. Crucially, Ukraine has never claimed the killings but it is notable that many of those killed played prominent roles in Moscow’s .

Last month, Russian deputy mayor and prominent veteran of the war, Zaur Aleksandrovich Gurtsiev, was killed in an explosion in southern Russia. Russian authorities said they were investigating all options into the killing, “including the organization of a terrorist attack” involving Ukraine.

Gurtsiev had been involved in the Russian attacks on the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which destroyed about 90% of residential buildings, according to United Nations estimates.

Gurtsiev had “introduced his developments in the technology of targeting missiles, which allowed them to increase their accuracy and effectiveness many times over,” according to the “Time of Heroes” program.

In April, Russian authorities charged a “Ukrainian special services agent” with terrorism, after he was detained in connection with a car explosion that killed Russian General Yaroslav Moskalik, the deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.

And in February Armen Sarkisyan, the founder of a pro-Russian militia group in eastern Ukraine – described by authorities in Kyiv as a “criminal mastermind” – died following a bombing in central Moscow. The bombing took place in an upmarket residential complex in the capital city, Russian state media outlet TASS reported at the time.

Ukraine has never claimed the killings but it is notable that high-profile figures have been assassinated in Russian territory.

Climate campaigner Greta Thunberg and other 11 activists set sail on Sunday afternoon for Gaza on a ship aimed at “breaking Israel’s siege” of the devastated territory, organizers said.

The sailing boat Madleen – operated by activist group Freedom Flotilla Coalition — departed from the Sicilian port of Catania, in southern Italy.

It will try to reach the shores of the Gaza Strip in an effort to bring in some aid and raise “international awareness” over the ongoing humanitarian crisis, the activists said at a press conference on Sunday, ahead of departure.

“We are doing this because, no matter what odds we are against, we have to keep trying,” Thunberg said, bursting into tears during her speech.

“Because the moment we stop trying is when we lose our humanity. And no matter how dangerous this mission is, it’s not even near as dangerous as the silence of the entire world in the face of the live-streamed genocide,” she added.

Israel, which was founded in the aftermath of the Holocaust, has adamantly rejected genocide allegations against it as an antisemitic “blood libel.”

In mid-May, Israel slightly eased its blockade of Gaza after nearly three months, allowing a limited amount of humanitarian aid into the territory.

Experts have warned that Gaza is at risk of famine if more aid is not brought in.

UN agencies and major aid groups say Israeli restrictions, the breakdown of law and order, and widespread looting make it extremely difficult to deliver aid to Gaza’s roughly two million Palestinians.

Among those joining the crew of the Madleen are “Game of Thrones” actor Liam Cunningham and Rima Hassan, a French member of the European Parliament who is of Palestinian descent. She has been barred from entering Israel due to her active opposition to the Israeli assault on Gaza.

The activists expect to take seven days to get to their destination, if they are not stopped.

Thunberg, who became an internationally famous climate activist after organizing massive teen protests in her native Sweden, had been due to board a previous Freedom Flotilla ship last month.

That attempt to reach Gaza by sea, in early May, failed after another of the group’s vessels, the “Conscience”, was attacked by two alleged drones while sailing in international waters off the coast of Malta.

The group blamed Israel for the attack, which damaged the front section of the ship, in the latest confrontation over efforts to send assistance to the Palestinian territory devastated by nearly 19 months of war.

The Israeli government says the blockade is an attempt to pressure Hamas to release hostages it took during the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the conflict. Hamas-led militants assaulted southern Israel that day, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting 251. Hamas is still holding 58 hostages, 23 of whom are believed to be alive.

In response, Israel launched an offensive that has killed over 52,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between fighters and civilians. Israel’s bombardment and ground operations have destroyed vast areas of the territory and left most of its population homeless.

The Flotilla group was only the latest among a growing number of critics to accuse Israel of genocidal acts in its war in Gaza. Israel vehemently denies the allegations, saying its war is directed at Hamas militants, not Gaza’s civilians.

“We are breaking the siege of Gaza by sea, but that’s part of a broader strategy of mobilizations that will also attempt to break the siege by land,” said activist Thiago Avila.

Avila cited the upcoming Global March to Gaza – an international initiative also open to doctors, lawyers and media – which is set to leave Egypt and reach the Rafah crossing in mid-June to stage a protest there, asking Israel to stop the Gaza offensive and reopen the border.

Erin Patterson, the Australian woman accused of killing three people and attempting to kill a fourth with a meal laced with death cap mushrooms, has taken the stand in her own defense at a trial that has captured worldwide attention.

On Monday, the start of the sixth week of the trial, Patterson told the court about her relationship with her estranged husband Simon, whose parents, Don and Gail Patterson, were among the guests who died after attending lunch at her house in July 2023.

Gail’s sister, Heather Wilkinson, also died after eating Beef Wellington at lunch, but her husband, Ian Wilkinson, a pastor at their local church, survived after spending several weeks in hospital with acute poisoning from Amanita phalloides, the world’s most toxic mushrooms.

Prosecutors allege that Patterson, who has pleaded not guilty to all charges, deliberately laced the beef dish with lethal mushrooms, after seeing their location posted on a public website. Her defense lawyers argue the deaths were a “terrible accident,” and while they acknowledge Patterson, 50, repeatedly lied to police, they say she didn’t intend to kill her guests.

The mother of two told the court that her relationship with her husband was merely “functional” in July 2023, and that she had started becoming concerned that he wasn’t involving her in family gatherings anymore.

Her self-esteem was low, and she was so unhappy with her weight that she was considering gastric bypass surgery, she told the court.

“I’d been fighting a never-ending battle of low self-esteem most of my adult life, and the further inroads I made into being middle aged, the less I felt good about myself,” she said.

How Erin Patterson met her husband

Patterson’s defense attorney Colin Mandy SC asked her about the start of her relationship with Simon Patterson, the father of their two children. Patterson told the court she met Simon in 2004 at work at Monash City Council, in the Australian state of Victoria. They were friends at first, before a romance developed several months later.

They married in 2007, at a service attended by Don and Gail Patterson and Ian and Heather Wilkinson. Erin’s parents were on holiday when she got married, so Ian Wilkinson’s son David walked her down the aisle, she told the court.

Patterson said she was “very atheist” when she met Simon. “I was trying to convert him to being an atheist, but things happened in reverse, and I became Christian,” she told the court.

She said she had a “spiritual experience” during her first church service in 2005 at Korumburra Baptist Church, where Pastor Ian Wilkinson delivered the sermon. “I had what I would call a religious experience there, and it quite overwhelmed me,” she said

A traumatic birth

Patterson recalled the traumatic delivery of her first child, who was born by emergency cesarian, after an attempt with forceps failed. Her son spent some time in the intensive care unit, and Patterson said she discharged herself against medical advice so she could go home to be with her newborn.

Patterson spoke about the support Simon’s mother Gail gave her as she cared for her son. “She gave me good advice … relax and enjoy your baby,” she said.

When they were living in Perth, Western Australia, the couple briefly separated for the first time. In 2009, Patterson rented a cottage for herself and their baby, she told the court, while her husband rented a trailer close by. They reunited in January 2010. A second baby came later.

During the course of their relationship, Patterson told the court there were periods of separation.

“What we struggled with over the entire course or our relationship… we just couldn’t communicate well when we disagreed about something,” she said. “We could never communicate in a way that made each of us feel heard or understood, so we would just feel hurt and not know how to resolve it.”

Patterson will resume giving evidence on Tuesday.