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As the dust still settles following the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, analysts say the next steps will determine whether the Islamic Republic’s atomic ambitions have truly been crippled. 

Commenting on the mission, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that: ‘The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be ‘monumental.’ The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill was shown by our military. Thank you!’

Also on Sunday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine told reporters, ‘Final battle damage will take some time, but initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.’ He added it was far too early to comment ‘on what may or may not still be there.’

A senior Israeli security source told Fox News Digital, ‘It’s still too soon to know for sure, but it appears the sites were seriously damaged — it looks excellent.’

‘History is being written,’ said Reserve Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a former IDF intelligence chief. ‘This is a powerful development that significantly weakens the Iranian threat and highlights the deep cooperation between Israel and the United States. But the journey is far from over.’

According to Kuperwasser, the strikes caused heavy damage to core parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. ‘But I don’t think the program is destroyed,’ he told Fox News Digital. ‘They still have enriched uranium, the ability to produce centrifuges, and scientists. We killed many, but not all. And even the bombed facilities — we don’t know for sure that nothing remains.’

Kuperwasser emphasized that while Tehran may retain some nuclear assets, a key strategic threshold has now been crossed. ‘Until now, everything was covert: sabotage, diplomacy, sanctions. But now, military action has proven far more effective. If Iran tries to restart its program, they know we — and the Americans — are prepared to strike again.’

Sima Shein, a former senior Mossad official and Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), agreed that Iran’s capabilities have been degraded, but not eliminated.

‘There’s no doubt these were the three most important sites,’ Shein told Fox News Digital, referring to the U.S. strike Saturday night that hit Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, but claimed ‘Iran has dispersed its enriched uranium — both 60% and 20% — across various unknown locations. They’ve likely hidden advanced centrifuges as well, because production oversight hasn’t existed for years.’

She added that if a future diplomatic agreement is reached, the first condition must be ‘full disclosure and removal’ of all remaining fissile material.

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Fox News Digital that all remaining Iranian nuclear facilities must be completely dismantled and referred to FDD expert’s plan, which outlined a strategy for the permanent dismantlement of Tehran’s nuclear weapons enterprise. 

The report calls for the destruction of all enrichment sites, the removal or seizure of enriched uranium, the dismantling of advanced centrifuges, and a permanent halt to weaponization efforts. It also demands unrestricted inspections, irreversible disarmament, and strict enforcement through snapback sanctions. FDD argues that anything less would leave Iran capable of rebuilding its nuclear program.

Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence and president of the Mind Israel think tank, called the American strike a ‘game-changer.’

‘Trump’s doctrine of ‘peace through strength’ is in action,’ Yadlin said. ‘Geopolitically, this changes the entire war — and sends a message to China, Russia, and others.’

But Yadlin also believes Iran’s nuclear capabilities haven’t been wiped out completely. ‘There are two possible Iranian responses: retaliation and changing nuclear policy. Retaliation may come via terror attacks in the Gulf, or pressure through proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis. But I think the more likely shift is in nuclear posture — perhaps withdrawing from the NPT.’

‘They’re in a dilemma,’ Shein told Fox News Digital. ‘They don’t want to drag the U.S. further into military conflict, and they can’t risk harming ties with Gulf neighbors. A military retaliation — like closing the Strait of Hormuz — would invite overwhelming force. Expelling inspectors or quitting the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] may be their next moves.’

Kuperwasser added that military pressure alone may not bring lasting resolution — unless paired with either a diplomatic agreement with intrusive inspections, or a credible threat of continued strikes.

‘If there’s an agreement, it must be based on verification — not trust,’ he said. ‘Anywhere, anytime inspections. But if they refuse, we can continue striking any new facility they build.’

As Israel and the U.S. prepare for potential cycles of response and counter-response, Kuperwasser believes the Israeli public is ready.

‘These are historic times,’ he said. ‘We understand the sacrifice — and we’re ready to see it through.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A House lawmaker is nominating President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize after he brokered a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran.

Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., wrote to the Nobel Peace Prize Committee, declaring Trump had an ‘extraordinary and historic role’ in having ended ‘the armed conflict between Israel and Iran and preventing the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism from obtaining the most lethal weapon on the planet.’

Trump declared the ’12 Day War’ was ending late on Monday afternoon with a ceasefire that was meant to go into effect overnight Tuesday.

It ends just over a week after Israel first launched a preemptive strike against Iran, arguing Tehran was dangerously close to obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The two countries subsequently traded rocket fire over the following days, and over the weekend, the U.S. launched its own airstrikes on three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities.

Iran responded by shooting rockets at a U.S. air base in Qatar on Monday, but not without giving advance notice to U.S. and Qatari officials. No injuries were reported in that attack.

‘President Trump’s influence was instrumental in forging a swift agreement that many believed to be impossible. President Trump also took bold, decisive actions to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions and ensure that the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism remains incapable of acquiring a nuclear weapon,’ Carter wrote in his letter.

He said Trump’s leadership through the crisis ‘exemplifies the very ideals that the Nobel Peace Prize seeks to recognize: the pursuit of peace, the prevention of war, and the advancement of international harmony. In a region plagued by historical animosity and political volatility, such a breakthrough demands both courage and clarity.’

‘President Trump demonstrated both, offering the world a rare glimpse of hope. For these reasons, I respectfully submit this nomination for Donald J. Trump, 47th President of the United States, to be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize,’ Carter finished.

It is not the first time Trump has been nominated for the prize, though he has yet to win.

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., tapped Trump for the prize just earlier this year, arguing his 2024 electoral victory had an ‘astonishingly effective impact’ on peace in the world.

According to the Nobel Prize website, there have been 338 candidates nominated for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize so far.

Carter, who is also running for Senate in Georgia, has introduced several notable bills this year backing Trump, though many have been seen as largely symbolic.

The Georgia Republican introduced legislation to rename Greenland ‘Red, White, and Blueland’ after Trump expressed interest in taking the territory. He also authored a bill aimed at letting Trump sell off a federal building in California named after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

However, as for the conflict in the Middle East, it appears the tenuous peace is in danger of fraying as of Tuesday morning.

Carter’s nomination for Trump comes shortly after Israel accused Iran of breaking their ceasefire agreement, which Tehran has denied.  

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President Donald Trump expressed deep frustration with both Israel and Iran on Tuesday, saying the two countries ‘don’t know what the **** they’re doing.’

Trump made the comments while departing from the White House for a NATO summit Tuesday morning. Both Israel and Iran fired missiles at one another following the imposition of a ceasefire on Monday night.

‘I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, okay, now you have 12 hours, you don’t go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them. So I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either, but I’m really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning,’ Trump said.

He continued, ‘We basically have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don’t know what the **** they’re doing.’ 

‘I’m gonna see if I can stop it,’ he added.

‘ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!’ Trump wrote on Truth Social shortly after boarding Marine One.

Minutes later, he announced that Israel was canceling its plans for an attack Tuesday morning.

‘ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter!’ he wrote.

He then topped it off with a post stating: ‘IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!’

Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday night, dubbing the conflict a ’12-day war.’

Qatar’s prime minister secured Iran’s agreement to the U.S.-proposed ceasefire after Iran’s limited strikes on America’s Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

A senior Israeli official told Fox News on Tuesday that Iran had launched two missiles toward Israel following the announcement of the ceasefire ‘and we believe they are trying to fire more in the next couple of hours.’

‘Unfortunately, the Iranians have decided to continue to fire toward Israel,’ the official said to Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent  Trey Yingst after Trump unveiled the deal Monday.

‘Now we will have to retaliate, this will happen of course,’ the official added. ‘It could end within several hours, but they [the Iranians] need to make a decision.’ 

Israel has yet to confirm that it has canceled its follow-up attack.

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Walmart has agreed to pay $10 million to settle a Federal Trade Commission civil lawsuit accusing the world’s largest retailer of ignoring warning signs that fraudsters used its money transfer services to fleece consumers out of hundreds of millions of dollars.

The settlement was filed on Friday in Chicago federal court, and requires approval by U.S. District Judge Manish Shah.

Walmart also agreed not to process money transfers it suspects are fraudulent, or help sellers and telemarketers it believes are using its services to commit fraud.

“Electronic money transfers are one of the most common ways that scammers tell consumers to send them money, because once it’s sent, it’s gone for good,” said Christopher Mufarrige, director of the FTC consumer protection bureau. “Companies that provide these services must train their employees to comply with the law and work to protect consumers.”

The Arkansas-based retailer did not admit or deny wrongdoing in agreeing to settle. Walmart did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In its June 2022 complaint, the FTC accused Walmart of turning a blind eye to fraudsters who used its money transfer services to cash out at its stores.

Walmart acts as an agent for money transfers by companies such as MoneyGram and Western Union. Money can be hard to trace once delivered.

The FTC said fraudsters used many schemes that included impersonating Internal Revenue Service agents, impersonating family members who needed money from grandparents to avoid jail, and telling victims they won lotteries or sweepstakes but owed fees to collect their winnings.

Shah dismissed part of the FTC case last July but let the regulator pursue the remainder. Walmart appealed from that decision. Friday’s settlement would end the appeal.

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Apple was sued on Friday by shareholders in a proposed securities fraud class action that accused it of downplaying how long it needed to integrate advanced artificial intelligence into its Siri voice assistant, hurting iPhone sales and its stock price.

The complaint covers shareholders who suffered potentially hundreds of billions of dollars of losses in the year ending June 9, when Apple introduced several features and aesthetic improvements for its products but kept AI changes modest.

Apple did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

CEO Tim Cook, Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh and former CFO Luca Maestri are also defendants in the lawsuit filed in San Francisco federal court.

Shareholders led by Eric Tucker said that at its June 2024 Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple led them to believe AI would be a key driver of iPhone 16 devices, when it launched Apple Intelligence to make Siri more powerful and user-friendly. But they said the Cupertino, California-based company lacked a functional prototype of AI-based Siri features and could not reasonably believe the features would ever be ready for iPhone 16s.

Shareholders said the truth began to emerge on March 7 when Apple delayed some Siri upgrades to 2026 and continued through this year’s Worldwide Developers Conference on June 9 when Apple’s assessment of its AI progress disappointed analysts.

Apple shares have lost nearly one-fourth of their value since their Dec. 26, 2024 ,record high, wiping out approximately $900 billion of market value.

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Warplanes. Submarines. Cruise missiles. Bombs that weigh 30,000 pounds.

After initially favoring diplomacy, US President Donald Trump resorted to an extraordinary use of force against Iran on Saturday night, striking three of the regime’s key nuclear sites.

Trump claimed Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “obliterated,” but some Iranian officials downplayed the impact of the strikes – just as they did when Israel first struck Iran’s facilities on June 13.

With satellite imagery of the overnight strikes beginning to emerge, here’s what we know about the damage the US inflicted on Iran’s nuclear program.

Fordow

Fordow is Iran’s most important nuclear enrichment facility, buried deep inside a mountain to guard it from attacks.

The main halls are believed to be some 80 to 90 meters (262 to 295 feet) below ground. Analysts have long said that the US is the only military in the world with the kind of bomb required to burrow that deeply – the enormous, 30,000-pound GBU-57.

The images, captured by Maxar, showed six separate impact craters in two nearby locations at Fordow. The craters are visible along a ridge running over the underground complex.

“Of course, one cannot exclude (the possibility) that there is significant damage there,” he said.

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the Fordow enrichment facility in Iran before and after US strikes. Maxar Technologies

“Total destruction of the underground hall is quite possible,” Albright said, while stressing that a full assessment of the damage will take time.

N.R. Jenzen-Jones, a munitions specialist and director of the research company Armament Research Services (ARES), concurred that there are at least six entry points in Fordow following the US strikes.

“This is consistent with the theory of an attack on such a deeply buried target as the Fordow site, which would require multiple precisely delivered, and carefully calibrated, penetrating munitions to essentially ‘smash’ and blast their way through to the deeper, more protected areas of the site,” he added.

Satellite imagery also showed significant changes to the color of the mountainside where the facility is housed, indicating a vast area was covered with a layer of grey ash in the aftermath of the strikes.

Although Iran’s foreign minister said the US had crossed a “very big red line,” other Iranian leaders downplayed the strikes’ impact. Manan Raeisi, a lawmaker representing the city of Qom, near Fordow, said the damage from the attack was “quite superficial.”

Natanz

Natanz is the site of Iran’s largest nuclear enrichment center and was targeted in Israel’s initial attack on Iran on June 13. The site has six above-ground buildings and three underground structures, which house centrifuges – a key technology in nuclear enrichment, turning uranium into nuclear fuel.

The above-ground facilities were damaged in Israel’s initial attack. The IAEA said the strikes damaged electrical infrastructure at the plant.

Although it is not clear if Israel’s strikes caused direct damage to the underground facilities, the IAEA said the loss of power to the underground cascade hall “may have damaged the centrifuges there.”

The US also targeted Natanz in its Saturday night operation. A US official said a B-2 bomber had dropped two bunker-busting bombs on the site.

US Navy submarines also fired 30 TLAM cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan, the third Iranian site targeted by the US.

Isfahan

Isfahan, in central Iran, is home to the country’s largest nuclear research complex.

The facility was built with support from China and opened in 1984, according to the nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Some 3,000 scientists are employed at Isfahan, NTI says, and the site is “suspected of being the center” of Iran’s nuclear program.

Albright said initial reports suggested that the US also struck tunnel complexes near the Isfahan site, “where they typically store enriched uranium.”

If confirmed, Albright said this would show that the US was trying to take out Iran’s stocks of uranium that had been enriched to 20% and 60%. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%.

At a Pentagon news conference Sunday, Gen. Dan Caine, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a US submarine had “launched more than a dozen Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles against key surface infrastructure targets” at the Isfahan site.

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The smile on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s face was impossible to hide.

Minutes after President Donald Trump announced that the US had bombed three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Netanyahu effusively praised the American leader as someone whose decisions could lead the region to a “future of prosperity and peace.”

Since Israel launched its attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and other targets, Netanyahu and the country’s other political echelon had been careful not to be perceived as dragging Trump into another war in the Middle East. In the end, the US joining the campaign – and taking credit for the results – is arguably an even bigger success for Netanyahu, who brought the world’s superpower into what had been Israel’s mission.

Netanyahu has talked about the threat of Iran for much of his political career, parading out visual aids on occasion – like a cartoon of a bomb at the UN General Assembly in 2012 – to help his audience. But the longstanding criticism was that Netanyahu’s rhetoric was all bark, no bite.

For all the talk of the threat Iran posed to Israel and the wider region, Netanyahu never pulled the trigger on a major military operation. Instead, he authorized sporadic high-risk, high-reward operations from Israel’s Mossad spy agency, including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and the stealing of the country’s nuclear archive.

But Iran’s nuclear program survived largely unscathed, and Netanyahu was left for years with no measurable achievement against an issue he came to see as an existential threat to Israel.

The last 10 days rewrote the script.

Aviv Bushinsky, who worked with Netanyahu during his first term in the late-90s, called the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities “no doubt his greatest accomplishment.”

Israel’s initial waves of attacks and its establishment of air superiority over Iran began a clear string of military successes, which the Trump administration ultimately joined.

The scale of the success is so great that Bushinsky argued it made Netanyahu’s one of the country’s top two or three leaders since the country’s founding in 1948. The “stain” of failing to stop the Hamas-led attack on October 7 remains with Netanyahu, Bushinsky said, but the attack on Iran has immediately become part of his legacy.

“Netanyahu has a signature of taking down the nuclear capabilities of the Iranians,” he said.

Now Netanyahu immediately faces another challenge: deciding what to do next. At least publicly, the US has made it clear that it sees the Iran strikes as finished as long as Iranian forces don’t attack US troops in the region.

But after starting the campaign alone, Israel is still pressing its advantage. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said Sunday that Israel was preparing for the “campaign to prolong.” Before the weekend, Israel had conducted the military campaign against Iran on its own, and it has since carried out more strikes after the US bombing of the nuclear facilities.

“If the war was designed to obliterate Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and the president of the United States says they destroyed the three facilities, then why isn’t Israel announcing mission accomplished?” former Israeli consul general Alon Pinkas asked rhetorically. “This military solution for everything is fine, as long as you understand that it is aligned with political goals. And I don’t see them.”

Since the start of the Trump administration, the friction between Trump and Netanyahu has been on full display as the White House pursued a series of steps in the region that left Israel sidelined. Trump’s first trip to the Middle East blew right past Israel without stopping, the American president signed a ceasefire deal with the Houthis in Yemen that cut out Israel, and he surprised Netanyahu in April by announcing nuclear negotiations with Iran.

The US decisions raised questions about whether Netanyahu was able to handle a second Trump administration, especially one with a far more vocal isolationist wing.

All of those questions disappeared in a puff of bunker buster smoke in the aftermath of the US strikes as the two leaders heaped praise on one another

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the Fordow enrichment facility in Iran before and after US strikes. Editors’ note: Satellite photo above was rotated by Maxar Technologies, the source of the image, to show the original orientation of the moment the image was taken. Maxar Technologies

The issue of Iran had broad consensus among much of Israeli society, with a majority of the country viewing a nuclear Iran as an existential threat.

According to a survey from the Israel Democracy Institute done before the US strikes, approximately 70% of Israelis supported the campaign against Iran, while nearly as many believe it was right to launch the strikes without a guarantee of US involvement.

That level of support has drawn accolades for Netanyahu even from his detractors.

“You don’t have to like Netanyahu in order to admit yes, he achieved something,” said Ben-Dror Yemini, a political analyst for Israel’s prominent Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

But the current moment – one in which Israel and the US have carried out punishing strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities – requires sensitive diplomacy and a willingness to back off the military successes that appear to have come so easily, Yemini said.

The decision to act and the decision to wait each involved its own elements of risk, according to former US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro.

“There’s risk in any use of forces and certainly in a major decision like this one from the United States,” Shapiro said. “But there was risk in not acting and leaving Iran within weeks of a nuclear bomb at the time of their choosing.”

But having made the critical choice to go after Iran’s nuclear facilities, Shapiro said it would be a grave mistake to assume the conflict is over.

Asked if the Middle East was safer now than it was before US involvement in the strikes against Iran, Shapiro said it depends on whether the bombing campaign destroyed or significantly damaged Iranian nuclear facilities. It also depends on how Iran chooses to respond, which he said requires the international community to lead Iran away from escalation.

“It’s too early to celebrate the achievement.”

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At least 20 people have been killed and 52 more are injured after a “terrorist attack” on a Greek Orthodox church in the Syrian capital on Sunday, according to the country’s health ministry.

He opened fire on the congregation of Mar Elias Church in Damascus, before “detonating himself using an explosive vest,” the ministry said in a statement.

A mass was being held at the church at the time of the attack, according to Syria’s state news agency SANA.

A video circulating on Syrian social media from inside the church shows dead bodies, significant destruction, shattered glass and broken chairs in the area where mass was being held, with blood visible throughout the scene.

Syria’s civil defense, popularly known as the White Helmets, said emergency teams were working to transfer the bodies to hospitals and secure the area.

“The treacherous hand of evil struck” on Sunday, the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Antioch said in a statement, writing that “an explosion occurred at the entrance of the church, resulting in the deaths of numerous martyrs and causing injuries to many others who were inside the church or in its immediate vicinity.”

“We offer our prayers for the repose of the souls of the martyrs, for the healing of the wounded, and for the consolation of our grieving faithful. We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to our faith and, through that steadfastness, our rejection of all fear and intimidation,” the church said.

The United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, Geir O. Pedersen, expressed “outrage” at the “heinous crime,” his office said in a statement.

“Mr. Pedersen calls on all to unite in rejecting terrorism, extremism, incitement and the targeting of any community in Syria. He sends his deepest condolences to the families of the victims and his hope for the recovery of those injured,” the statement said.

The United States’ Special Envoy for Syria, Thomas Barrack, called the attack an act of “cowardice,” saying in a statement that it has “no place in the new tapestry of integrated tolerance and inclusion that Syrians are weaving.”

The foreign ministries of Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian Authority, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Ukraine, Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands also spoke out in condemnation of the attack.

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US President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities puts the Middle East in a volatile position, with all eyes now on Tehran’s next move.

Speaking in Istanbul, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday his country has “a variety of options” when deciding how to respond to the US attacks.

From striking US bases in the region, to possibly closing a key waterway to global shipping, Iran is likely mulling its next moves. All carry inherent risks for the Islamic Republic, Israel and the United States.

Here’s what to know:

Iran could hit US military interests in the region

Direct US involvement in the conflict could see Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) activate what remains of its proxies across Iraq, Yemen and Syria, groups which have previously launched attacks on American assets in the region.

While Iran’s strongest ally in the region was once Lebanon’s Hezbollah, that group has been significantly weakened by Israeli attacks.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) says the US maintains a presence at 19 sites in total across the region, with eight of those considered by analysts to have a permanent US presence. As of June 13, the CFR estimated some 40,000 US troops were in the Middle East.

In Iraq, for example, there were 2,500 US troops as of late last year. An Iranian attack on these forces is not inconceivable. In 2020, an Iranian missile attack on a US garrison left more than 100 soldiers with traumatic brain injuries.

A resurgence of attacks from Yemen against US assets is already on the table. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels previously vowed to attack American ships in the Red Sea should the US join Israel’s conflict with Iran. A prominent Houthi official said in a social media post early Sunday that “Trump must bear the consequences” of the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

It is unclear if this marks the end of a US-Houthi ceasefire struck in May, in which Washington said it would halt its military campaign against the Houthis in exchange for the group stopping its attacks on US interests in the region.

Knowing that it can’t outright win a conflict against Israel and the US, experts have said that Tehran could seek to engage in a war of attrition, where it tries to exhaust its adversary’s will or capacity to fight in a drawn-out and damaging conflict, which Trump at the outset of his presidency said he wanted to avoid.

Iran could disrupt global oil trade

Iran also has the power to influence the “entire commercial shipping in the Gulf,” Ravid said, should it decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route.

There have so far been no material disruptions to the global flow of oil. But if oil exports are disrupted, or if Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market could face an existential crisis.

The strait links the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is a key channel for oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East to the global market. About 20 million barrels of oil flow through the strait each day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

A prominent adviser to Iran’s supreme leader has already called for missile strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Following America’s attack on the Fordow nuclear installation, it is now our turn,” warned Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, a well-known conservative voice who has previously identified himself as a Khamenei “representative.”

Iran could race to build a bomb

Some experts say that Iran is very likely to race for a nuclear bomb now, even if the current regime collapses and new leaders come in place.

“Trump just guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next 5 to 10 years,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, said on X. “Particularly if the regime changes.”

Parsi has said that even if the regime collapses and new military elements assume power, they are likely to be much more hawkish than the current regime and race toward a nuclear weapon as their only deterrent.

Experts have previously said that Iran likely moved its stocks of enriched uranium from its key nuclear facilities amid Israeli strikes.. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity for civil purposes use uranium that is enriched to between 3.5% and 5%. When enriched to higher levels, uranium can be used to make a bomb Israel and the US accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons; Tehran insists its program is peaceful.

Iran is also likely to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or the NPT, under which it has pledged not to develop a bomb.

“Iran’s response is likely not just limited to military retaliation. NPT withdrawal is quite likely,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said on X.

Iran could just keep hitting Israel for now

Iran’s first response to the US’ attack on its nuclear sites was to attack Israel, not US bases.

Iranian missiles hit a group of buildings in Tel Aviv, where 86 people were admitted to hospital with injuries overnight and on Sunday morning, according to Israel’s ministry of health.

Knowing it may not be able to sustain a full-on confrontation with the US, and hoping that Trump will scale back on his involvement following Sunday’s strike, Iran may merely seek to perpetuate the status quo, fighting only Israel.

Trump at the time wanted to “send a big message, get the headlines, show US resolve, but then avoid a wider war,” Shabani said.

While Iran may feel it has to retaliate to save face, it may be a bloodless response, similar to what happened in 2020, when it launched a barrage of missiles at US bases in Iraq, which resulted in traumatic brain injuries to personnel but no deaths.

Iran could resort to cyberattacks or terrorism

Two military analysts have said Iran could resort to “asymmetric” measures – such as terrorism or cyberattacks – to retaliate against the US because Israeli attacks have reduced Iran’s military capabilities.

“I think (the IRGC is) going to be a little bit careful, and I suspect that’s going to take us to all of the asymmetric things they can do: cyber, terrorism. I think that they’re probably going to be looking for things where the US cannot just put up the traditional defenses,” he added.

But, “albeit wounded,” the IRGC still has “some tremendous capacity,” he said. “It has capabilities that are already within the region and then outside the region. We are vulnerable… around the world, where the IRGC has either influence or can make things happen asymmetrically.”

Iran could resume nuclear talks

Iran has refused to return to the negotiating table while under Israeli attacks.

On Sunday, Araghchi said he does not know how “much room is left for diplomacy” after the US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

“They crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities. … We have to respond based on our legitimate right for self-defense,” Araghchi said.

Parsi said that by doing so, “the Iranians have cornered themselves.”

“Their aim is to force Trump to stop Netanyahu’s war, and by that show his ability and willingness to use American leverage against Netanyahu,” Parsi wrote. “But the flip side is that Tehran has given Israel a veto on US-Iran diplomacy – by simply continuing the war, Israel is enabled to block talks between the US and Iran.”

Iranian and European officials met Friday in Geneva for talks, which an Iranian source said started out tense but became “much more positive.”

Speaking Sunday, Araghchi said the US had decided to “blow up” diplomacy.

“Last week, we were in negotiations with the US when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3 (group of European ministers)/EU when the US decided to blow up that diplomacy,” Araghchi said on X.

“The more likely situation is that the talks are over for now.”

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Large crowds gathered at the Enqelab Square in central Tehran on Sunday evening, protesting the strikes. Footage published by the state-affiliated Fars News Agency showed people waving Iranian flags and punching the air, carrying signs that read: “Down with the USA, down with Israel.”

Hamid Rasaee, a politician, said even people critical of the regime were protesting.

Trump ordered attacks on three of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities early Sunday morning – a move that has placed the US in the center of the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Iranians had faced the possibility of US intervention ever since Israel launched its strikes on nuclear and military targets last week – but many believed any action was days away.

That’s in part because Trump said Thursday he would decide whether to strike Iran within two weeks, seemingly opening a window for negotiations. That all changed early Sunday, when American bombers dropped more than a dozen massive “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities, and Tomahawk missiles launched from the sea struck Isfahan.

“We do not have nuclear weapons, so why does he strike us?” he added, alluding to the Iranian regime’s insistence the country’s nuclear program is peaceful. Trump has claimed Iran was weeks away from acquiring a nuclear weapon, dismissing assessments from his own intelligence community that Iran was still years away from a weapon.

Qom residents slept through the attacks

While Trump has claimed the three sites struck by the US were “totally obliterated,” his defense secretary has said the full impact is still being assessed. And unlike the strikes by Israel in recent days, some of which targeted densely populated areas, the US attacks were concentrated in locations off-limits to most civilians.

Residents of Qom, a city some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Fordow nuclear site, woke to the sound of emergency vehicles’ sirens and the news that the secretive complex had been bombed a few hours earlier.

Five people living in Qom said they were surprised to learn what had happened when they got up, having heard nothing overnight.

Qom does not have an aerial attack warning system, so residents would have had no warning before the strikes.

Qom is considered a holy city, home to Iran’s largest and most famous Shia seminary. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei studied at the Qom Seminary, as did several of Iran’s former presidents.

Similarly, people living in a village some 35 kilometers (22 miles) from the Natanz facility said they heard nothing overnight.

In Tehran, far from the targeted nuclear sites, many were calling for Iran to respond with force. Fars released a compilation of short interviews with people on the streets of the capital Sunday.

Each of the eight people featured urged a retaliation – with most saying Iran should strike US bases in the region and close down the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s southern shore, through which a third of global seaborne oil trade passes.

In Iran, signs of dissent tend to be quickly quashed, making it dangerous for people to express disagreement with the regime.

But Mohsen Milani, an Iranian scholar who has lived in the US for decades, said the US attack on Iran could spark more genuine support for the regime.

“It could ignite a new wave of nationalism, damage the future of U.S.-Iran relations more than the 1953 coup, accelerate Tehran’s pivot to Russia and China, and fundamentally reshape Iran’s defense, deterrence, and nuclear posture,” he said in a post on X.

Some of this sentiment was already on show in Tehran on Sunday.

“I will stay here and I will sacrifice my life and my blood for my country,” she said.

Everywhere around her, people were protesting the US, many holding anti-Trump signs and posters. Some of the posters ended up on the ground, where people stamped on them.

“We were living our normal lives and they attacked us. If someone strikes the United States, would they not answer? Of course they would,” she said.

Another person living in Tehran said they believed the regime was greatly weakened by the US strikes – because its opponents would now be able to call its bluff.

“The claims that the Iranian regime has always made – that it will attack all American bases and close the Strait of Hormuz – they made all these claims and the whole world saw that (the US) came and easily hit the Fordow and Natanz sites … but Iran was completely silent and no fighter planes took off and (it) used no defenses or missiles,” the person said, adding that if there is no response in the coming days, the regime’s supporters could abandon it.

“No sane person will stand by someone who is in a weak position, not even their own supporters,” they said.

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