A massive fire that destroyed a large shopping center in Warsaw last year was the result of arson ordered by Russian intelligence services, Polish officials said Sunday on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the blaze.

The fire broke out May 12, 2024, in the Marywilska 44 shopping that housed some 1,400 shops and service points. Many of the vendors were from Vietnam, and it inflicted tragedy on many in Warsaw’s Vietnamese community.

“We now know for certain that the massive fire on Marywilska was the result of arson commissioned by Russian services,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X. “The actions were coordinated by a person residing in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, while the rest have been identified and are being sought. We will catch them all!”

In a joint statement, Justice Minister Adam Bodnar and Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said the May 12, 2024, blaze gutted 1,400 shops and service points. Authorities have been investigating the incident for a year, with support from police and the Internal Security Agency.

Officials said the arson was part of a coordinated sabotage campaign directed from Russia. Some perpetrators are in custody, while others have been identified and are being sought. Polish authorities are also cooperating with Lithuania, where some suspects allegedly carried out related activities.

The investigation involved 121 days of site inspections and the work of 55 prosecutors and 100 police officers. More than 70 witnesses and over 500 victims were interviewed.

“We are determined to hold accountable those responsible for these disgraceful acts of sabotage,” the ministers said.

The announcement comes amid rising concerns in Europe over Russian attempts to destabilize the region through covert operations.

Russia has in the past denied allegations that it is orchestrating arson and sabotage operations across Europe.

Three energy-rich Gulf Arab nations are racing to turn their influence over Donald Trump into tangible gains with the president set to visit next week.

They have built personal ties with the president and collectively pledged trillions in US investments while casting themselves as key intermediaries in conflicts Trump wants to resolve, from Gaza to Ukraine and Iran.

Now, they’re being rewarded with the privilege of hosting Trump’s first state visit of his second term. The US president is set to land in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, followed by visits to Qatar and then the United Arab Emirates that stretch till May 16.

Given Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, the three states have much to offer

Behind this carefully crafted strategy of wooing Trump is a desire from Gulf states to solidify and formalize their positions as the US’ indispensable security and economic partners, and extract as much benefit for themselves as they can.

US-Gulf relations have improved significantly since Trump returned to office. Frustrated at the perceived lack of US interest in their needs under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had sought to diversify their military, technological and economic ties. With Trump in office, they see what one Gulf official called “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for to achieve his country’s objectives.

From their perspective, now is the time to cement ties with Washington, and even “secure greater privileges in their relationship with the world’s most powerful nation,” Ebtesam AlKetbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank in Abu Dhabi, said.

Each of the three nations Trump is visiting has its own list of priorities. Here’s what they want from the US and how they’re going about achieving it.

Sealing a US-Saudi security pact

“Security, security and security” is what Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states seek most from Trump’s visit, said Ali Shihabi, an author and commentator on politics and economics of Saudi Arabia.

Last year, the US and Saudi Arabia came close to finalizing a landmark defense and trade pact – but the deal stalled over Saudi insistence that Israel commit to a path toward Palestinian statehood.

Riyadh is also seeking US cooperation to develop a civil nuclear program, but that has been held over its insistence on enriching uranium domestically – raising concerns in the US and Israel over nuclear weapons proliferation. Uranium, when enriched to high levels, can be used to produce nuclear weapons.

White House backing for a Saudi nuclear program could see American firms win lucrative contracts.

Riyadh appears to be framing its relationship with the US as a win-win. In March, Trump said he’d go to Saudi Arabia if it invests $1 trillion in the US. “They’ve agreed to do that, so I’m going to be going there,” he said.

While Saudi Arabia didn’t confirm that figure, it announced plans in January to expand trade and investment with the US by $600 billion over four years, with potential for more.

But for Riyadh to diversify away from oil, it still needs to sell oil – at a healthy profit – to fund that transition. Recent price drops, driven in part by Trump’s tariffs, threaten to undermine those ambitions. Trump has made clear he wants oil prices lower, putting him at odds with Saudi Arabia’s need for high revenues to finance its economic transformation.

UAE’s quest for AI dominance

Perhaps more than any other Gulf state, the UAE sees investment as central to its strategy for deepening ties with the US and securing returns – and it has money to back it up. Among the world’s richest countries per capita, it has pledged trillions in US investments. Abu Dhabi has even branded itself “the capital of capital.”

“Expanding trade and investment is a way to reinforce this strategic partnership,” AlKetbi said. “The US remains a critical security guarantor for the Gulf region, while also offering a dynamic economy full of opportunities and capabilities that align with the long-term Gulf development plans.”

In March, the UAE announced a $1.4 trillion investment plan over 10 years focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy. Its existing US investments already total $1 trillion, according to its embassy in Washington.

But it won’t be easy for Abu Dhabi to achieve its stated goal of becoming a global leader in AI by 2031 without US microchips.

During the final days of former President Joe Biden’s administration, the US tightened curbs on AI exports to keep advanced technology out of the hands of foreign adversaries like China, which were meant to take effect on May 15. The UAE has been one of the countries facing restrictions and may expect them to be lifted during Trump’s trip.

On Thursday, the US announced that Trump will rescind a set of the Biden-era curbs.

Qatar’s global diplomacy

Qatar is the Gulf Arab nation with the most formalized security ties with the US. It hosts the biggest US military installation in the Middle East, which the State Department describes as “indispensable” for US military operations in the region.

Last year, the US quietly reached an agreement that extends its military presence at the sprawling base in Qatar for another 10 years. It also amended a 1992 defense cooperation agreement with the US, which is meant to further strengthen their security partnership.

In 2022, the Biden administration also designated Qatar as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a title granted to close friends that have strategic working relationships with the US military.

Qatar has been a key mediator in a number of conflicts – from the war in Gaza to Afghanistan. Experts say it is part of an effort to remain relevant in the eyes of Washington.

Doha also maintains close ties with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has been on a quest to relieve his country of years-long sanctions by the West.

Trump’s visit is ultimately about what he can get out of the three Gulf states, experts said, adding that each of the three nations is anticipating a set of new deals that will benefit both parties.

“He’s coming here because he believes it is in the interest of the US economy, perhaps his interest and those around him, to have those deals here with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar,” Maksad said. “So expect big announcements.”

I met the man who would become Pope Leo XIV in October 2023. We were standing outside the Vatican’s Synod Hall, and from my short conversation with Cardinal Robert Prevost, I could tell he was a good listener, thoughtful and had a certain presence about him.

Our conversation took place on the sidelines of a major Vatican assembly focused on church reform efforts. It was part of a multi-year process begun by the late Pope Francis – the synod – which he extended from his hospital bed as one of his final acts in power.

Inside the large gathering hall in 2023, and again in 2024, participants like Prevost sat at roundtables where everyone was given a chance to speak for the same allotted length. The future pope, like other cardinals and bishops, engaged with people from across the world, notably including women. Synod gatherings in the Vatican had not taken place in that style before and, for the first time, included female voters who had their say on agreeing a final document.

Just half a year later, Prevost – now Pope Leo XIV – is no longer one of the many participants at the table. He is at the helm of the church and set to continue steering this reform process in the same direction.

When Pope Leo spoke on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica just moments after his election, he signaled he would seek “to walk together with you as a united church searching all together for peace and justice, working together as women and men.”

Leo is likely to continue what Francis started but with his own low-key yet determined style. His election, at the age of 69, shows the cardinals want a pope to institutionalize those reforms in a papacy that could last several decades.

Central among them are questions about the role of women, the exercise of power in the church hierarchy and the move to a more missionary church that gets out of its comfort zone.

Potential counterweight to Trumpism

Before the white smoke went up, the best-known American in the world was President Donald Trump. Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, has changed that.

By electing Prevost, the cardinals have ensured the papacy is a prophetic voice on the world stage that could serve as a counterweight to Trumpism.

While Pope Leo is a unifier who does not appear looking to pick fights, his focus on bridge-building, dialogue and support for migrants, stands in contrast to the Trump administration.

In his first speech to the cardinals following his election, Pope Leo pledged his “complete commitment” to the teachings of the Second Vatican Council, the 1962 to 1965 gathering of bishops that provided the blueprint fort contemporary the contemporary church.

He insisted that this meant “loving care for the least and the rejected” and “courageous and trusting dialogue” with the contemporary world with the contemporary world in its various components and realities” including, tackling the challenge to human dignity that Artificial Intelligence presents.

The Second Vatican Council sought to emphasize the church as a voice for the marginalized – a “prophetic voice” – and was particularly embraced in Central and Latin America, where the future Pope Leo served for decades.

Banks said the new pontiff is “very concerned with social issues and the marginalized,” someone who is close to those on the “peripheries.” The Augustinian order – which pope Leo was elected to lead for two terms – is focused on community building.

Posts made on an X account under the new pope’s name reposted articles and posts critical of the Trump administration’s immigration policy, although those who know Pope Leo say he is not naturally confrontational.

“I don’t think he’s one to pick fights with people, but he’s not one to back down if the cause is just,” according to Cardinal Joseph Tobin of Newark, New Jersey, who has known Pope Leo for some time as his friend “Bob” Prevost.

A humble leader

When it comes to the hotly disputed topics inside the church – same-sex blessings, the ordination of women – the new pope is going to adopt a posture, rather than make bold changes.

In 2012, Prevost gave a speech criticizing the “sympathy for anti-Christian lifestyle choices” found in the mass media including same-sex couples and “their adopted children,” although 11 years later he said his position had developed “in the sense of the need for the church to open and to be welcoming.”

When he was Bishop of Chiclayo, Peru, Becquart says he ensured women were in leadership positions in his diocese.

Like Francis, he is unlikely to try and change church doctrine but will take a firm stance on topics such as migration, peace, the environment.

“He’s not a man who’s going to tell you what he’s against, he’s going to tell you what he’s for, that’s to me the crucial thing about him,” said Brother Mark O’Connor, a Catholic journalist who runs communications for the Diocese of Parramatta in Australia. O’Connor knows Pope Leo reasonably well.

“He’s the opposite of a culture warrior,” he said. “I don’t think he believes fighting about doctrine or even changing doctrine and talking about dogmatic issues is the way forward.”

As the church moves into a new era, one topic he must address is clerical sexual abuse.

Given his time as a former leader of a religious order and prefect of the Vatican office for bishops he will have had experience dealing with abuse cases. One survivor group has criticized his handling of some cases, while the leader of Peru’s bishops’ conference praised Prevost’s ministry to abuse survivors.

Leo has a doctorate in the church’s canon law, which equips him for the task of ensuring existing church laws are applied to investigate cases and hold leaders accountable.

The new pope is also credited with playing a crucial role in the suppression of the Sodalitium Christianae Vitae, a powerful Peruvian group plagued by allegations of abuse.

Traditional wisdom said it was not possible to have a pope from the United States.

Yet in Pope Leo XIV, church leaders chose someone who has spent decades working in Latin America and has global experience – often referred to as a citizen of the world.

At a time of increasing divisions, wars and conflicts, the 2025 conclave has opened an extraordinary new page for the church with the choice of Leo, a bridge-builder and quietly prophetic pope.

The governor of the Mexican state of Baja California, which borders the US, said on social media Sunday that the United States withdrew tourist visas from her and her husband.

Marina del Pilar Ávila, from the ruling Morena party, did not say why her visa was withdrawn.

A spokesperson for the US Embassy said that visa records are confidential and that the details of individual cases cannot be discussed.

Baja California borders California and day-to-day commercial ties between the two states run deep.

”I fully trust that the situation will be satisfactorily clarified for both of us,” Ávila said on X.

Her husband, Carlos Torres Torres, who is an active member of Morena, said his “conscience is clear,” in a statement on Facebook on Saturday.

“This proceeding does not represent a formal accusation, investigation or indictment by any authority in Mexico or the United States,” he added.

The Israeli military issued an evacuation warning for three ports in Yemen on Sunday night after vowing to “defend itself by itself” following a ceasefire deal between the US and the Houthis that excluded Israel.

The warning, posted on social media by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Arabic media spokesperson Avichay Adraee, warned people to evacuate the ports of Ras Isa, Hodeidah, and Salif.

The anticipated airstrikes come two days after Israel intercepted a missile fired from Yemen, according to the IDF.

That missile was the first since President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire deal between the US and the Iran-backed rebel group last week.

Despite the deal, the Houthis said they would continue to attack Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian population of Gaza.

Blindsided by the deal, Israel vowed it would strike the Houthis alone if necessary.

“Israel must be able to defend itself by itself against any threat and any enemy,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement last week. “This has been true in the face of many past challenges, and it will remain true in the future.”

This marks the second time within a week that Israel has issued an evacuation warning for Yemen.

Last Tuesday, the military issued a warning for Yemen’s international airport in the capital of Sana’a before carrying out strikes that it said “fully” disabled the facility.

Victory has a thousand fathers, as they say, but defeat is an orphan.

And so it goes after the brief but bruising conflict between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan with both sides loudly talking up their successes while quietly down-playing losses.

On India’s frantic television news channels, minutes after a US-brokered ceasefire came into force, the headline “Pakistan Surrenders” was splashed across the screens.

India’s military action against Pakistan, sparked by the killing of tourists in India-administered Kashmir last month, sent a bold message to terrorists, India’s defense minister, Rajnath Singh, said later.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan, crowds gathered in the streets of the capital to celebrate what Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described as “military history” achieved by “our brave army in a spectacular fashion.”

“In a few hours our jets silenced India’s guns in a way that history will not soon forget,” Sharif said, while an effigy of his Indian counterpart burned outside.

But this was an eruption of violence between two nuclear-armed neighbors in which both sides delivered and suffered heavy blows.

Pakistan has trumpeted successes in the skies, claiming its pilots shot down five Indian fighter jets in aerial battles – including three advanced French-made Rafales – in what would be a stinging humiliation for the Indian air force.

But Indian officials are still refusing to acknowledge even a single aircraft loss.

Meanwhile, India has released new satellite images showing serious damage to air strips and radar stations at what Indian defense officials say are multiple Pakistani military bases crippled by massive Indian airstrikes.

In other words, political and military leaders in India and Pakistan can spin it how they like, but there is no clear winner in this conflict.

There’s even a struggle to take credit for what were clearly US-brokered negotiations that led to the ceasefire, announced almost out of the blue by US President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform.

Amid a rapidly deteriorating security situation at the weekend, which threatened to spin out of control, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he and Vice President JD Vance called political and military leaders on both sides urging them to hold back.

Pakistani officials expressed gratitude for the intervention. But Indian leaders are playing down any US role, saying the truce was worked out between India and Pakistan directly.

The reason is likely to be driven by national pride, with Indian officials loathe to admit a truce was imposed on them, or even brokered, by the United States.

India also has a long-standing policy of refusing to allow foreign mediation when it comes to the status of Muslim-majority Kashmir – a disputed region claimed by both India and Pakistan in its entirety – which has been at the center of the latest conflict with Pakistan and which India regards as a strictly internal matter.

Nevertheless, perhaps buoyed by his quick ceasefire win, President Trump has offered to help the two countries find a lasting solution “after a thousand years” concerning Kashmir. Inevitably, Pakistan has welcomed the idea, while in India it has fallen on deaf ears.

The offer is a stark reminder, though, that the US-brokered truce is little more than a quick fix, a band aid that is unlikely to remotely address the fundamental grievances fueling what is actually a decades long dispute, over the status of Kashmir.

And if you think the Indian and Pakistani claims of victory both ring a bit hollow now, just wait until the simmering Kashmir dispute, inevitably, boils over once again.