It may be horrific and redefine the world order. Or it may be underwhelmingly bluster over substance. But US President-elect Donald Trump’s second term will certainly be disruptive. And even the most severe American isolationism – the greatest amount of doing little – will likely herald significant change.

We really know staggeringly little about Trump’s foreign policy. He says he likes it that way. We know he’s against wars that drag in America. He seems fond of dictators, or at least strongmen. He likes what he sees as good deals and destroys what he thinks of as bad ones. He dislikes American allies that he thinks take advantage. He doesn’t believe in global warming. His first term highlighted a man keen to be at the very heart of every matter.

But the president-elect is unique also in how little he’s had to articulate his foreign policy positions. Recall the horror that met George W. Bush being unable to name Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in a 1999 campaign interview? Trump would never be asked such a “gotcha” question.

The mainstream media is chewing glass over how it got this election so wrong. A similar exercise in assessing Trump’s likely foreign policy is perhaps in order. To be clear: Trump does not inherit a world at peace, where America’s unquestioning role as a beacon of freedom and moral superiority has brought enduring calm.

The incumbent Biden administration leaves a series of global crises at best unsolved – at worst raging. The current White House may have done the very best anyone could have in meager circumstances. But is it possible that some disruption could be fruitful? Could a chaotic rethink work? At risk of toadying towards an incoming administration, let’s develop that thought for a moment.

Trump’s first term was of itself relatively uneventful compared with the four years that followed. The end of ISIS; immigration bans and odd insults; leaving the Iran deal while making another one with the Taliban; letting Turkey invade northern Syria; and all that weird coziness with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Biden term encompassed a comparative deluge: the sudden yet inevitable collapse of America’s longest war in Afghanistan; the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and then October 7 in Israel, then the spiral of Gaza, Iran and Lebanon. Trump may have set some of that in motion, but undoubtedly Biden had the busier watch.

Did Trump have any hand in his own calm first term? If you’re looking for a bright spot in 2017 to 2021 – where erratic, angry gestures might have paid off – the assassination of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 is a glaring case in point. I recall hearing the news that Soleimani – not just the commander of the Quds force in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, but at that time the region’s most eminent military personality – had been killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad.

Even one US official involved in the operation expressed surprise to me about the move’s audacity. It felt like the wheels might come off the region, if Iran went to the mattresses to seek revenge. But, in the end, remarkably little happened. And the limits of Iranian power – fanned by years of its role in fighting Syrian rebels and then ISIS – became evident. The US could suddenly kill Iran’s most prominent commander whenever it wanted, without major comeback.

Did that lead to Iran’s growing sponsorship of proxies who slowly walked the region into the crises that followed October 7? Possibly. Or did the strike simply curtail Iranian ambitions? We won’t ever know; but it was the first of many occasions in the years to come when Iran looked weak.

Trump’s clear alliance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looks set to benefit the Israeli incumbent. Yet the president-elect’s broader instincts may limit Israel’s options. The endless funding and arming of Israel’s multiple conflicts is anathema to Trump’s wider goal of reducing US global involvement.

He may also be mindful of the damage supporting the war in Gaza did to the Democrats in the election that he won. Netanyahu must surely have completed much of his regional to-do list, after the horrific assaults on Lebanon and Gaza, and may find his victorious US counterpart less willing to bail him out of any new assaults.

The ongoing war of attrition with Iran will need urgent attention. Yet Tehran now has experience of Trump as someone willing to be wildly incautious and unafraid of international norms. If Iran seeks a nuclear weapon, it can expect a very violent US response. Trump may also pre-empt that Iranian decision by attacking Iran, with Israeli backing. As President Joe Biden – who did all he could to avoid war with Iran – leaves power, Iran looks incredibly weak. Tehran must now deal with a US president it allegedly tried to kill and who has shown – four years ago when Iran was more powerful than it is now – he is unafraid of a war with them.

Trump’s mixture of erraticism and pride may have the most impact on China, whose leader, Xi Jinping, congratulated him on his victory while warning the US would lose from confrontation and gain from cooperation. A damaging tariff war may be avoided through deal-making. But above all China must confront the heady mixture of a US president who would deeply resent having to fight to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, but probably dislike as much being labeled weak if he backed down from such a fight.

Beijing must have frustratingly few signals it can study about the intentions of such a singular and irrational decision-maker, and therefore struggle with knowing when, and if, a potential move on Taiwan would encounter the US boots on the ground that Biden promised.

The earliest, and most risky decision Trump will face is over the continued US support for Ukraine. Any deal will likely involve Kyiv accepting territorial concessions and provide a pause in fighting that allows Moscow to regroup. That will, in of itself, prove hugely dangerous for European security.

But in the current moment we are at in the war, Ukraine is equally in need of time to regroup and rearm. It is losing territory at the fastest pace perhaps yet since the invasion, and would immediately benefit from the frontlines being frozen. It also finds itself at the sharp, bleeding end of Biden’s biggest foreign policy paradox: give Kyiv enough support to not lose, but not enough to let it defeat Russia. Ukraine will one day run, eventually, out of troops willing to fight.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has known the day would come when the idea of another “forever war” became unappealing to NATO, and the world’s largest military alliance eventually sought to wind down its involvement. Everything Trump has said suggests he wants that same exit very soon.

Trump’s grotesque and incomprehensible fondness for Putin makes the details of any deal highly dangerous for Europe and the NATO alliance, founded to confront Russia. But it is a moment Ukraine would – short of a Russian domestic revolt or collapse – have arrived at eventually anyway. Does Moscow accept a better deal hatched with a US president who has been less confrontational and personally offensive towards Putin? Does Putin risk Trump taking greater personal offense if that same deal is later betrayed, and their entente exposed as a sham?

The answers to these questions are for now unknowable. But it would be naive to think they necessarily bode well for Kyiv.

Yet Trump’s ascendancy has not brought with it a new set of global crises and problems. Instead, it means the US and its allies must ready themselves to deal with the same issues with different focus, means and priorities.

That may prove catastrophic for the current world order, and Western democracies as a whole. Or it may force tired societies and alliances to adopt a new spirit of enlightened compromise and impassioned defense.

Qatar, which has long hosted Hamas’ political office in Doha, has alongside Egypt served as an intermediary for the two sides, which do not officially maintain direct contact.

Except for a brief flurry of activity last month, there have been no real negotiations since six Israeli hostages were executed by Hamas and discovered in a Gaza tunnel at the end of August. During a temporary ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Egypt last November, Hamas released 105 hostages and Israel released 240 Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas has insisted that any agreement with Israel must lead to a permanent end to the war in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused that demand. In July he effectively spiked a draft hostage and ceasefire deal by introducing a raft of new, 11th-hour demands.

There are 101 hostages still held in Gaza. Israel’s military campaign, launched in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack, has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health; the UN reported that 70% of the fatalities in the first six months of the conflict were women and children.

The Israeli minister of economy, Nir Barkat, appeared to offer the first official Israeli reaction to the move, saying on X that “Qatar was never a mediator, but Hamas’ defender, the one to fund and protect the terrorist organization.” Netanyahu for years backed payments to Hamas through Qatar, in order to divide Palestinian politics and – detractors allege – prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

It is not the first time the Qatari government has expressed frustration. in April, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that Qatar’s efforts were being misused for “narrow political interests” by some involved in the conflict, “which required the state of Qatar to conduct a comprehensive evaluation” of its role.

The Qatari government has now told the Biden administration that it is willing to restart its mediation efforts “when both sides reach an impasse and demonstrate a sincere willingness to return to the negotiating table with the objective of putting an end to the war and the suffering of civilians.”

Family members of a 31-year-old American tourist who was killed while on vacation in Hungary’s capital mourned their loss while a 37-year-old suspect was in custody Saturday.

The victim, Mackenzie Michalski from Portland, Oregon, was reported missing on Nov. 5 after she was last seen at a nightclub in central Budapest.

Police launched a missing person investigation and reviewed security footage from local nightclubs where they observed Michalski with a man later identified as the suspect in several of the clubs the night of her disappearance.

The man was detained on Nov. 7 and questioned by police, and later allegedly confessed to the killing.

After Michalski’s disappearance, her family and friends had launched an effort to find her, starting a Facebook group to gather tips on her whereabouts. Her parents traveled to Hungary to assist in the search, but while en route learned that she had been killed.

At a candlelight vigil in Budapest on Saturday night, the victim’s father, Bill Michalski, told The Associated Press that he was “still overcome with emotion” at the death of his daughter.

“There was no reason for this to happen,” he said. “I’m still trying to wrap my arms around what happened … I don’t know that I ever will.”

Police detained the suspect, an Irish citizen, on the evening of Nov. 7. Investigators said that Michalski and the suspect had met at a nightclub and danced before leaving for the man’s rented apartment. Police alleged the man killed Michalski while they were engaged in an “intimate encounter.”

Police alleged the suspect confessed to the killing, but said it had been an accident. Police said that he had attempted to cover up his crime by cleaning the apartment and hiding Michalski’s body in a wardrobe before purchasing a suitcase and placing her body inside.

Allegedly, he then rented a car and drove to Lake Balaton, around 90 miles (150 kilometers) southwest of Budapest, where he disposed of the body in a wooden area outside the town of Szigliget.

Video released by police showed the suspect guiding authorities to the location of the body. Police said the suspect had made internet searches before being apprehended on how to dispose of a body, police procedures in missing person cases, whether pigs really eat dead bodies, and the presence of wild boars in the Lake Balaton area.

They said he had also made an internet search inquiring on the competence of Budapest police.

Crime scene photographs released by police showed a rolling suitcase, several articles of clothing including a pair of fleece-lined boots, and a small handbag next to a credit card bearing Michalski’s name.

According to a post by an administrator of a Facebook group called “Find Mackenzie Michalski,” which was created on Nov. 7, Michalski, who went by “Kenzie,” was a nurse practitioner who “will forever be remembered as a beautiful and compassionate young woman.”

At the candlelight vigil in Budapest on Saturday, Michalski’s father gave brief comments to those who had gathered, and was wearing a baseball cap he said he had received as a gift from his daughter.

Michalski had visited Budapest before, and called it her “happy place,” her father told the AP.

“The history, she just loved it and she was just so relaxed here,” he said. “This was her city.”

Catherine, Princess of Wales, joined other members of Britain’s royal family at a Remembrance Day event in London on Saturday – the latest public appearance by the princess since she underwent preventive treatment for cancer earlier this year.

Catherine, also known as Kate, was shown in a photograph attending the Festival of Remembrance at the Royal Albert Hall, along with King Charles and her husband, Prince William.

The festival is an annual commemorative concert which honors all those who have lost their lives in conflict.

Queen Camilla was originally set to attend but pulled out due to a chest infection, Buckingham Palace said on Saturday.

Kate, 42, announced that she had completed chemotherapy in September but cautioned that the road to recovery was still long. She said she would undertake more public engagements when possible as she continues to recover.

In October, she made her first public appearance since her cancer treatment to meet the bereaved families of three children killed in a knife attack in Southport, northwest England.

Kate is also set to attend a Remembrance Day service on Sunday, Buckingham Palace said.

Protesters and police clashed in the streets of Valencia in eastern Spain on Saturday, as tens of thousands of people marched to demand the regional president resign over his response to floods that killed more than 220 people.

Near Valencia’s City Hall Square, police used batons and shields to push back an angry crowd who at times threw chairs and other objects at the officers, video footage showed. Elsewhere in the city several buildings were vandalized, according to the Valencia mayor, though there have been no reports of serious injuries.

Local media – citing government information – reported an estimated 130,000 people took part in the protest.

The demonstrations started around 6 p.m. local time, when thousands of people – many of them carrying placards and chanting “killers!” – took to the streets to demand the resignation of Valencia’s regional president Carlos Mazón over what critics say was too slow a response to what was the worst natural disaster the region has seen in decades.

The floods, which began in late October, saw a year’s worth of rain dumped on the region in less than 8 hours, which came rushing down the rivers and tributaries toward the Mediterranean sea, picking up cars and destroying bridges along the way.

“The regional government didn’t warn on time for the flooding, didn’t respond on time,” a protester told Reuters.

“So we want them to quit and to let the new government take over the responsibility to clean up the mess that they left.”

Another protester said, “The only thing I want to say is that this abandonment and institutional negligence must be held accountable.”

Mazón has claimed he wasn’t warned early enough about the severity of the rain by central authorities, while the Spanish government says it tried calling Mazón at least four times before being able to reach him.

The regional president, who according to some Spanish media reports was at a restaurant hours into the floods, has denied missing any calls prior to the floods turning catastrophic.

Meanwhile, the Spanish government and local agencies continue to search for over 70 people who remain missing.

More than 8,400 soldiers are taking part in the efforts, according to the Spanish government, along with divers searching near Valencia’s shore.

Valencia’s mayor María José Catalá took to X following Saturday’s protests to urge calm.

“With absolute respect to everyone, I consider that confrontation and vandalism will never be the solution,” she wrote.