It wasn’t long after landing in Bangkok, Thailand, in the summer of 2023 that Jalil Muyeke realized that something was terribly wrong.

He knew that the city – where he was planning to start a new data entry and online marketing job – was a short drive from the airport. But the man who picked him up drove for hours into the countryside.

Without cellphone service, and fearing that his driver might have a weapon, the then 32-year-old Ugandan felt powerless to escape. He says that eventually, he was bundled into a canoe and taken across the Moei River into Myanmar, where he was dropped off at a scam compound.

Today, more than more than 220,000 people from across the world are estimated to have been trafficked to Myanmar and Cambodia and forced to con people around the globe out of their savings.

Muyeke was told by his overseers, who he said were Chinese, to assume the identity of a female fashion designer living in San Francisco, and to reach out to men on dating apps like Bumble and Happn. His job was to get the phone numbers of two men a day.

He would pass on the numbers to others trained in so-called “pig butchering” scams – referring to the way farmers “fatten up” pigs before killing them – who would form close, often romantic relationships with the unwitting targets, without ever meeting them, before convincing them to invest in cryptocurrency schemes.

“We were told to exclusively target Americans and Canadians,” he said. “That it was easier to get money from Americans because they have money, and those who didn’t have a lot of it wanted to make a lot of it.”

Similar operations, run mostly by Chinese criminal syndicates, are proving lucrative. Cyber scams run out of Southeast Asia generate more than $43 billion a year, according to the US Congress-founded United States Institute of Peace. The FBI estimates that in 2023, tens of thousands of Americans lost almost $4 billion in pig butchering scams – a 53% increase from 2022.

Now, anti-trafficking groups say the problem could get worse after vital funding that helped combat scam centers, and helped those forced to work at them, was lost due to sweeping cuts to foreign aid by the Trump administration.

NGOs at a standstill

“They’ve been given four weeks to close out, and there has been zero conversations on transferring any of the work that we’ve been doing,” said the former official, who asked to remain anonymous due to concern over possible retribution. USAID did not respond to a request for comment.

In Mae Sot, a city on Thailand’s western border, Australian not-for-profit Global Alms supports trafficking victims, including people who have been forced to work in scam compounds across the river in Myanmar. They come from countries including the Philippines, Indonesia, Uganda, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan, said Global Alms CEO Mechelle Moore. Some pay ransom to be freed, others escape and swim across the river. But nearly all of them arrive traumatized, she added.

“You see varying degrees of mutilation and torture and injury,” said Moore. “Lots of scars, bruising; sometimes they have broken bones. One girl arrived unconscious and later died.”

A few weeks ago, Global Alms lost its State Department lifeline, according to Moore, which made up 60% of its funding. She dipped into her own savings to help the people flowing across the border, providing them with emergency kits and accommodation, and helping guide them through the bureaucracy required to get home.

The funding was recently unfrozen, but she said, “there’s a lot of other NGOs out there that are just at a standstill right now.”

A growing global ‘scamdemic’

Interpol says that what began as a regional threat to Southeast Asia has now turned into a “global human trafficking crisis” impacting “millions of victims, both in the cyber scam centers and as targets.”

Officials across Southeast Asia and China have made periodic efforts to combat the scourge, and thousands were reportedly awaiting repatriation in Mae Sot after a recent crackdown.

“The mass repatriation didn’t happen in a vacuum,” says Mina Chiang, the founder of the UK-based social enterprise Humanity Research Consultancy (HRC), adding that organizations like hers have spent years providing intelligence on human trafficking to national authorities and Interpol, and advocating for action.

Its work is now at risk. HRC, which has historically relied on USAID funding for most of its income, has had to put team members on leave, said Chiang.

The former USAID official said that criminal organizations are likely to be emboldened by the abrupt termination of USAID programs, which in many countries were the main source of financing for shelters assisting victims. Providing a safe haven was crucial in convincing victims to work with law enforcement to help prosecute the perpetrators, the official said.

What is now widely referred to as a “scamdemic” is no longer confined to Southeast Asia. Friedman says that the model of human trafficking into scam centers, which originated in Southeast Asia, has spread to places including Bangladesh, Nepal, India, and Dubai. “This issue, if left unchecked, is going to get even more out of hand,” he said.

Muyeke was lucky to have escaped when he did. After seven months at the scam compound – during which he says he often warned targets that they were being scammed in messages he quickly deleted so his bosses wouldn’t see them – he negotiated with his captors to release him in exchange for taking a sick Ugandan woman with him, taking her off their hands.

He says he was left at a bus stop in Mae Sot, with barely any money and an expired visa, before handing himself in to immigration authorities, who he says fined and detained him. He doubts that many others would make the journey unsupported.

On Monday, the Trump administration officially cancelled 83% of the programs at USAID. “The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed in a post on X from his personal account.

Meanwhile, there is an ongoing legal battle over foreign aid contracts. Counter-trafficking groups say that in some cases, the damage has already been done, with staff laid off and offices shuttered.

Muyeke is following the developments closely. “I know people who are still inside who want to come back home, but they can’t right now, because the people who would have helped them get back are being funded by US aid,” he says.

He is also worried about the wider implications of the US moves. “Most of the people cheering this thing on are people who are just thinking about themselves and America right now,” says Muyeke. “They are digging a grave for themselves … it’s Americans who are the predominant targets.”

Syria’s interim government says it has reached a landmark agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate the group into state institutions.

Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa announced the deal on Monday, saying it was aimed at “ensuring the rights of all Syrians in representation and participation in the political process and all state institutions based on competence, regardless of their religious and ethnic backgrounds.”

The deal will also recognize as an integral part of the state Syria’s Kurdish community, tens of thousands of whom were previously denied citizenship under the decades-long rule of the Assad regime.

News of the deal is one of the biggest developments in the country since the rebel alliance led by Sharaa toppled the former President Bashar al-Assad in December.

By integrating the Kurdish community, it hopes to guard against the possibility of further sectarian strife in the country, which suffered through more than a decade of civil war before Assad’s downfall.

The SDF, which was not part of the rebel alliance that overthrew Assad, is presently the most powerful non-governmental force in the country and holds strategic territories, primarily in the northeast.

Under the new deal, those areas would come under the control of the central government.

Executive committees have been tasked with making sure the agreement is implemented by the end of the year.

While the SDF has been a key US partner in the fight against ISIS, it is largely made up of fighters from a group known as the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG), which is considered a terrorist organization by neighboring Turkey.

In the days following Assad’s ousting, it repeatedly clashed with Turkish-backed militants, raising concerns among US officials and experts about the security of the more than 20 detention facilities and camps holding suspected ISIS members and their families in northern Syria.

Neighboring countries Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon have all offered to help secure prisons holding ISIS suspects.

Michael Rios contributed to this report

Guatemala’s Volcano of Fire is erupting, and authorities have evacuated nearly 300 families while warning that another 30,000 people in the area could be at risk.

The eruption started overnight. There is no immediate report of casualties. The 12,300-foot (3,763-meter) high volcano is one of the most active in Central America. It last erupted in June 2023.

The volcano spewed gas and ash far into the sky Monday, leading authorities to close schools in the vicinity and a key road connecting communities.

Claudinne Ugalde, secretary of the disaster agency, said “some 30,000 people more or less are at risk in these three (jurisdictions) and we are trying to have them evacuate or self-evacuate,” she said.

The biggest danger from the volcano are lahars, a mixture of ash, rock, mud and debris, that can bury entire towns.

A 2018 eruption killed 194 people and left another 234 missing.

Isaac García, 43, a resident of El Porvenir on the slopes of the volcano, had that tragedy in mind when he and his family decided to heed authorities’ warnings to evacuate early Monday.

“We were a little worried because a few years ago the volcano became active,” García said, referencing the 2018 eruption, as he spoke with a mask to protect against the falling ash. He came to a shelter opened in San Juan Alotenango with his mother, wife and their three children, as well as other relatives.

The volcano is 33 miles (53 km) from Guatemala’s capital.

The flow of volcanic material is weak to moderate but expected to increase, Guatemala’s disaster agency said early Monday.

All but one of the world’s top 20 most polluted cities last year were in Asia, a new study shows.

The majority of these cities – 13 – are in the world’s most populous country, India, where booming economic growth is fired largely by coal and where hundreds of millions live in traffic-clogged and congested megacities.

Another four are in neighboring Pakistan, with one in China and Kazakhstan respectively.

The only city outside of Asia featured on the list is N’Djamena, the capital of Chad in central Africa – which was named the country with the worst air pollution.

Meanwhile the cities with the worst pollution in North America were all in California.

The report by IQAir, a Swiss company that tracks global air quality, looked specifically at fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, one of the smallest but most dangerous pollutants.

PM2.5 comes from sources like the combustion of fossil fuels, dust storms and wildfires. It is so tiny – 1/20th of a width of a human hair – that it can travel past your body’s usual defenses into your lungs or bloodstream.

The particles cause irritation and inflammation and have been linked to respiratory problems and chronic kidney disease. Exposure can cause cancer, stroke or heart attacks and has been associated with a higher risk of depression and anxiety.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says average annual levels of PM2.5 should not exceed 5 micrograms per cubic meter.

Byrnihat, an industrial town in northeast India recorded a PM2.5 concentration of 128.2 last year – more than 25 times the WHO’s standard.

She blamed factories around the town and a booming construction industry and trees being felled as contributing to the toxic air.

“The pollution is particularly bad right now, visibility is not great, there is dust everywhere, my eyes also burn,” she said.

“I do not leave home without a mask.”

Twelve other cities in the top 20 are in India.

Its capital New Delhi featured as the world’s most polluted capital for the sixth consecutive year, with a PM2.5 concentration of 91.8. The report also listed six satellite cities – Faridabad, Loni, Delhi, Gurugram, Noida and Greater Noida – making the list.

Just last November, a throat-searing blanket of smog settled over Delhi, disrupting flights, blocking buildings from view and prompting the city’s chief minister to declare a “medical emergency.”

But overall, India – the world’s most populous nation with 1.4 billion people dropped from third to fifth place from the previous year, according to the report.

But the report said air pollution “remains a significant health burden… reducing life expectancy by an estimated 5.2 years.”

India’s neighbors Bangladesh and Pakistan – together home to some 400 million people – were second and third-most polluted countries globally in terms of PM2.5 molecules, according to the report.

China – which used to dominate global rankings of the world’s worst air – noted a small improvement, the report said.

Its national annual average PM2.5 concentration decreased from 32.5 micrograms per cubic meter to 31, with air quality improving in megacities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the report said.

China is the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter but in recent years has waged a campaign against air pollution, particularly in the cities that have fuelled its economic growth, and has pushed a massive expansion in solar and wind power.

But last month two clean-energy groups raised alarm over what they said were plans by China’s power industry to build nearly 100 gigawatts of new coal plant capacity last year, the most in nearly a decade.

All 20 of the world’s most polluted cities last year exceeded WHO PM2.5 guidelines by over 10 times, the IQ Air report showed.

Data gaps

“Air pollution remains a critical threat to both human health and environmental stability, yet vast populations remain unaware of their exposure levels,” said Frank Hammes, Global CEO of IQAir.

Iran and Afghanistan did not feature in this year’s report due to a lack of data availability.

Air quality monitoring in Southeast Asia is also a problem, with nearly all countries having “significant gaps in government-led initiatives,” the report found.

In 2024, 173 out of 392 cities in the region lacked government monitoring stations, while Cambodia had none, it said.

Those problems are likely to be exacerbated after the US announced earlier this month that it would stop sharing air quality data gathered from its embassies and consulates worldwide due to “funding constraints” the Associated Press reported.

“Air quality data saves lives,” said Hammes.

“It creates much needed awareness, informs policy decisions, guiding public health interventions, and empowers communities to take action to reduce air pollution and protect future generations.”

Worst cities in North America

Only 17% of 8,954 cities analyzed globally by IQAir recorded air quality which met WHO pollution guidelines, the report said.

The cities with the worst air pollution in North America were Ontario, Bloomington and Huntington Park – all in California, the report said.

Overall the United States saw a significant reduction in PM2.5 levels last year, with the annual average dropping 22% from 2023.

Northern America has long boasted vigorous air quality monitoring systems, contributing 56% of the total number of ground-based air quality monitoring stations included in the IQ Air report – helping scientists with their continued research on air quality and aiding policymakers to make decisions about public health.

Only 12 countries, regions, and territories recorded PM2.5 concentrations below the WHO guidelines, most of which were in the Latin America and Caribbean or Oceania region.

The report called on governments to dedicate funding for renewable energy projects and “strengthen emission limits for vehicles and industrial activities.”

Advice Suman wishes authorities in Byrnihat would take to save her city from appearing at the top of the most polluted list again next year.

“This is my birthplace. I am a local. I do not want to leave this area. We want the governments to do more, come together and work for us.”

Russia said dozens of drones were launched at Moscow on Tuesday in what it said were “enemy” attacks, using its preferred euphemism for Ukraine, hours ahead of critical talks between US and Ukrainian officials.

If confirmed, the attacks would represent one of the largest on Moscow since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russian officials said one person was killed and three wounded in the Moscow region after at least 69 drones were destroyed while flying toward the city, according to state-run news agency TASS.

Falling debris also damaged buildings, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin posted on Telegram, according to TASS,

The reported attacks forced two Moscow airports to close for safety reasons, as well as two airports east of the city, Reuters reported, citing Russia’s aviation watchdog.

It comes ahead of talks scheduled between United States and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security adviser Mike Waltz are slated to meet the Ukrainian national security adviser, foreign minister and defense minister.

Ahead of the meeting, Rubio said the US wanted to hear what concessions Ukraine would be willing to make in negotiations to end the war with Russia, and that the talks could determine whether Washington resumes providing military aid and full intelligence sharing with Kyiv.

Fighting on the ground has intensified in recent weeks as the US-Ukraine relationship has soured, following the shouting match between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office.

Russia launched a major aerial assault on Ukraine last Friday and Saturday that killed more than two dozen people, according to Ukrainian authorities; another series of attacks killed six more civilians from Sunday to Monday.

Ukraine’s presence in Russia’s Kursk region is also shrinking sharply, with the Russian advance threatening Kyiv’s sole territorial bargaining counter at a crucial time in the war.

Ukraine’s reported attack on Moscow Tuesday appeared to be larger than its previous largest assault on the Russian capital last November.

Russia said it downed 34 Ukrainian drones during that attack, which injured a woman, forced the temporary closure of airspace and caused two houses to catch fire.

Last September, Russia said it destroyed at least 20 Ukrainian drones near Moscow in an attack that killed at least one person and forced airport closures in the capital.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte was taken into custody on Tuesday after the Philippine government said it received an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for his arrest for alleged crimes against humanity.

During his time in office, Duterte presided over a sweeping and brutal anti-drugs crackdown that killed more than 6,000 people, according to police data, though independent monitors believe the number of extrajudicial killings could be much higher.

“Earlier this morning, INTERPOL Manila received the official copy of the arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC),” according to a statement from the Presidential Communications Office.

Duterte returned to the Philippine capital Manila on Tuesday from Hong Kong after delivering a fiery speech to the city’s Filipino diaspora at a campaign rally on Sunday.

“Upon his arrival, the Prosecutor General filed an ICC notification for an arrest warrant against the former President for crimes against humanity,” the statement said, adding that the former president is currently in the custody of authorities.

During the event in Hong Kong, Duterte lashed out at the ICC investigation amid speculation the global body would issue a warrant for his arrest over his role in his controversial war on drugs operations.

Editor’s Note: Jonathan Todres is Catherine C. Henson professor of law at Georgia State University. He is the author of numerous publications on children’s rights and human trafficking, and he regularly advises organizations working on these issues. The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

In an era of often-deep political divide, human trafficking should be one issue where there is consensus. Indeed, the vast majority of us recognize that human trafficking and forced labor are human rights violations that must not be tolerated. Yet millions of children today are exploited in forced labor. Instead of attending school, they work in hazardous conditions in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, construction, fishing, and other sectors. While we need to be innovative in addressing such exploitation, a key pillar of any solution already exists in communities across the globe: education.

Education is a foundational human right that has been recognized since the beginnings of the modern international human rights movement following World War II. It can enable children and their families to break out of the cycle of poverty. It can strengthen communities. Nelson Mandela once called education “the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.”

In addition to this transformative power, education helps reduce child labor. Research shows that the longer we can keep kids in school, the better the chance they have of avoiding exploitative labor settings. Although 88% of children globally complete primary school, only 59% complete upper secondary school. That leaves millions of children and adolescents at risk. However, we know a number of steps that will improve access to education and help support children to stay in school.

First, ensuring that education is free, from pre-school through secondary school, is critical. Eliminating school fees helps improve attendance, often significantly. So-called hidden fees, such as additional costs for books, school uniforms, and transportation, must also be accounted for to ensure that children from the poorest families and communities can attend and complete school.

Second, providing free breakfast and free lunch programs at schools has been shown to improve attendance in many countries. It also helps address food insecurity and boosts academic performance while children are at school, even in wealthier countries such as the United States.

Third, investing in teachers and schools is key to providing quality education for all children. Teacher shortages and other challenges due to inadequate resources can make it harder for many children to access a quality education. Larger class sizes and other burdens on teachers and schools can lead to higher drop-out rates, leaving children at risk of exploitation. Conversely, investing in schools and teachers can improve the quality of education and reduce the risk of dropping out.

Finally, implementing and sustaining programs that support low-income and poor families helps alleviate the pressure for children to work, so they can continue their schooling instead. For example, cash transfer programs, such as Brazil’s Bolsa Família program, have helped improve school attendance and reduce dropout rates by providing financial support to low-income families allowing their children to continue their education.

Investing in education

Other steps are needed, of course. A strong legal framework and active enforcement of child labor laws is necessary to identify abuses early, protect children from exploitation, and hold violators accountable. However, focusing on, and investing in, education is vital not only to protecting children now, but also to ensuring that they can develop to their full potential and be positioned as adults to obtain safe, secure employment opportunities that pay a living wage.

In a world where AI and technological advances often dominate the headlines, it is tempting to want to find the newest innovation to address the exploitation of children. We absolutely should continue to look for new tools and pathways to prevent forced labor and exploitation of children. But we must also remember that sometimes an essential part of the solution is right in front of us. Education is that powerful asset that can help reduce the vulnerability of children to exploitation. We simply have to invest in it.

Ensuring every child has the freedom to learn and grow to their full potential by securing access to free, quality education for all children is a formidable tool in the fight against forced labor and exploitation. In short, being an anti-trafficking ally means standing up for every child’s right to education.

The Dalai Lama’s successor will be born outside China, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism says in a new book, raising the stakes in a dispute with Beijing over control of the Himalayan region he fled more than six decades ago.

Tibetans worldwide want the institution of the Dalai Lama to continue after the 89-year-old’s death, he writes in “Voice for the Voiceless,” which was reviewed by Reuters and is being released on Tuesday.

He had previously said the line of spiritual leaders might end with him.

His book marks the first time the Dalai Lama has specified that his successor would be born in the “free world,” which he describes as outside China. He has previously said only that he could reincarnate outside Tibet, possibly in India where he lives in exile.

“Since the purpose of a reincarnation is to carry on the work of the predecessor, the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world so that the traditional mission of the Dalai Lama – that is, to be the voice for universal compassion, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, and the symbol of Tibet embodying the aspirations of the Tibetan people – will continue,” the Dalai Lama writes.

Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama, fled at the age of 23 to India with thousands of other Tibetans in 1959 after a failed uprising against the rule of Mao Zedong’s Communists.

Beijing insists it will choose his successor, but the Dalai Lama has said any successor named by China would not be respected.

China brands the Dalai Lama, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 for keeping alive the Tibetan cause, as a “separatist.”

When asked about the book at a press briefing on Monday, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said the Dalai Lama “is a political exile who is engaged in anti-China separatist activities under the cloak of religion.

“On the Tibet issue, China’s position is consistent and clear. What the Dalai Lama says and does cannot change the objective fact of Tibet’s prosperity and development.”

‘Increasingly unlikely’ to return to Tibet

Beijing said last month it hoped the Dalai Lama would “return to the right path” and that it was open to discussing his future if he met such conditions as recognizing that Tibet and Taiwan are inalienable parts of China, whose sole legal government is that of the People’s Republic of China. That proposal has been rejected by the Tibetan parliament-in-exile in India.

Supporters of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan cause include Richard Gere, a follower of Tibetan Buddhism, and Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the US House of Representatives.

His followers have been worried about his health, especially after knee surgery last year. He told Reuters in December that he might live to be 110.

In his book, the Dalai Lama says he has received numerous petitions for more than a decade from a wide spectrum of Tibetan people, including senior monks and Tibetans living in Tibet and outside, “uniformly asking me to ensure that the Dalai Lama lineage be continued.”

Tibetan tradition holds that the soul of a senior Buddhist monk is reincarnated in the body of a child on his death. The current Dalai Lama was identified as the reincarnation of his predecessor when he was two.

The book, which the Dalai Lama calls an account of his dealings with Chinese leaders over seven decades, is being published on Tuesday in the United States by William Morrow and in Britain by HarperNonFiction, with HarperCollins publications to follow in India and other countries.

The Dalai Lama, who has said he will release details about his succession around his 90th birthday in July, writes that his homeland remains “in the grip of repressive Communist Chinese rule” and that the campaign for the freedom of the Tibetan people will continue “no matter what,” even after his death.

He expressed faith in the Tibetan government and parliament-in-exile, based with him in India’s Himalayan city of Dharamshala, to carry on the political work for the Tibetan cause.

“The right of the Tibetan people to be the custodians of their own homeland cannot be indefinitely denied, nor can their aspiration for freedom be crushed forever through oppression,” he writes. “One clear lesson we know from history is this: if you keep people permanently unhappy, you cannot have a stable society.”

Given his advanced age, he writes, his hopes of going back to Tibet look “increasingly unlikely.”

Elections in Greenland, an island home to about 57,000 people, are usually a local affair.

There is little opinion polling, with only two newspapers in the Danish autonomous territory. Greenlanders mull over politics in private Facebook groups, with key issues in the past centering on the economy, mining, fishing law and of course, its relationship and history with Denmark.

But as Greenlanders head to the polls on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump’s idea to annex the nation has thrown this year’s elections into the international spotlight.

Speaking about Greenland in his speech to Congress last week, Trump said, “I think we’re going to get it one way or the other” – reigniting fears of the United States attempting to take the island by force or economic coercion.

Greenland’s pro-independence Prime Minister Mute Egede responded: “We are not for sale and cannot simply be taken.”

“We don’t want to be Americans, nor Danes; We are Kalaallit (Greenlanders),” Egede said. “The Americans and their leader must understand that.”

In fact, all five parties in Greenland’s parliament have said they do not want the territory to become part of the United States. Their key divisions center more on economic, social and environmental policy than Trump’s pronouncements.

The dominant parties on Greenland’s political spectrum all agree on the desire for independence, with many parties, including Egede’s ruling democratic socialist party Inuit Ataqatigiit, viewing it as a long-term project, requiring years of negotiation with Denmark and further economic improvement.

Denmark ruled Greenland as a colony until 1953, when the island achieved greater powers of self-governance. Then, in 2009, it gained more powers pertaining to minerals, policing and courts of law. But Denmark still controls security, defense, foreign and monetary policy. Greenland also benefits from Denmark’s European Union and NATO memberships.

It is an open question what Greenland’s future security will look like if it votes to break away. Some politicians have floated establishing a post-independence defense treaty with Denmark, Canada, or even the United States, which already has a military base in the Arctic Circle in far northwest Greenland.

The island’s future security is especially important as Russia and China vie for greater influence in the Arctic.

Speeding up independence movement

In almost every election in recent years, politicians have promised to take steps to achieve autonomy. None of them have offered a concrete timeline, though.

But Trump’s aggressive stance has actually given the Arctic nation more bargaining power with Denmark, analysts say, and kicked the independence movement into high gear.

Independence isn’t on the ballot for Tuesday’s election, but the other partner in Greenland’s two-party government coalition, the Siumut party, has said it plans to hold a referendum on independence within the next election period. The main opposition party, Naleraq, has campaigned to sever ties with Denmark more quickly and wants to pursue a defense agreement with the US.

Greenland holds elections every four years, with 31 seats in parliament at stake.

Without reliable election polling, analysts hesitate to predict if Egede’s ruling left-wing coalition will win again.

“Whatever the outcome is going to be, there will be speed, there will be turbo on the issue of independence,” Noa Redington, an analyst and former adviser to previous Danish prime minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt, told Reuters news.

Greenlandic social media influencer and candidate for Naleraq, Qupanuk Olsen, told Reuters: “I strongly believe all this interest from Trump and the rest of the world is definitely speeding up our independence process times 100.”

Meanwhile, amid the influx of international attention, Greenland’s parliament last month outlawed political donations from foreign individuals and anonymous donors.

Danish intelligence services have announced they are actively monitoring attempts by foreign powers to interfere in the elections, citing China, Russia and the United States as potential tampering powers.

With multiple issues at play, “it has never been so important to mark a ballot,” wrote journalist Tôrtia Reimer-Johansen for the nation’s weekly newspaper Sermitsiaq.

‘Greenlanders have felt trapped’

A key issue is how full independence could be achieved and whether it’s economically viable, given that Greenland receives roughly 20% of its annual GDP from a Danish block grant every year – more than $500 million. That’s about half the island’s public budget.

Greenlanders also have Danish passports, healthcare and other Nordic welfare state benefits.

Analysts say any independence referendum would likely take years to implement and require lengthy exit-deal negotiations.

“Greenlanders have felt trapped, not just constitutionally, but also in terms of any kinds of relation, particularly economic relations,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher focused on Greenlandic-Danish relations at the Danish Institute for International Studies.

While Greenlandic politicians have repeatedly signaled that they’re uninterested in annexation, they are open to deals with the United States for rare earth mining, expanding tourism, stronger diplomatic connections and other investments.

Trump said in a social media post on Sunday: “We are ready to INVEST BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to create new jobs and MAKE YOU RICH,” he added, inviting Greenland to become “a part of” the United States.

Greenland is rich in oil and gas, as well as the rare earth metals in high demand for electric cars, wind turbines and manufacturing military equipment.

“They’re really eager to get someone digging, but they want to be sure to have a piece of the cake,” Gad added.

“Under the current Danish constitution and the self-government act, Greenland is in charge of minerals. They can dig up and export whatever that they want, but Denmark is in charge of security. That is kind of a stalemate, in the sense that, if you dig up something which is a security problem, who’s then to decide?” he said.

Security far from the only issue

Beyond security and foreign policy issues, Nuuk’s relationship with Copenhagen has also been fraught with allegations of historical misconduct and colonial oppression of the indigenous Inuit Greenlandic people.

The nation has been rocked in recent years by a birth control scandal, after it came to light that Denmark fitted many Greenlandic girls with an intrauterine device (IUD) in the 1960s and 70s without girls’ or their parents’ permission, as a means of population control. Prime Minister Egede recently called the birth control campaign “a genocide.”

And this election cycle has also exposed frustration over allegations that Denmark profited off a large cryolite mine on Greenland’s west coast from 1854 until 1987 – exploiting the area without benefiting locals.

A University of Greenland opinion survey conducted in spring 2024 – months before Trump floated ideas to control the island – found that more people saw the security threat as high compared to 2021. The survey also illuminated views on Greenland’s desire for greater international cooperation, with locals saying their preferred partners were Iceland, Canada and the Arctic Council.

Even still, people surveyed in 2024 said the biggest challenges for Greenland were the economic situation, cost of living and unemployment.

Those views have almost assuredly shifted in 2025, as Trump argues that controlling Greenland is vital for US national security and refuses to rule out using military force.

But the election is inherently unpredictable. The key issues on Greenlander’s minds may only become clear when results begin to trickle out of local polling stations in the early hours of Wednesday.