It’s only three weeks into a fragile ceasefire, and Israel and Hamas are each ratcheting up allegations that the other party has violated the deal.

So far, 16 out of 33 hostages scheduled for release in the current phase of the agreement have been freed by Hamas, and 656 Palestinian prisoners from a list of nearly 2,000 have been released by Israel. But the weekly exchanges may now be disrupted after Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement and said it would postpone Saturday’s hostage release “until further notice.”

Israel has hit back, with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying late Tuesday that the Gaza ceasefire will end if Hamas does not release hostages as planned on Saturday.

“If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon – the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is completely defeated,” Netanyahu said in a video statement.

US President Donald Trump, whose envoy helped mediate the agreement along with officials from Egypt and Qatar, has suggested dismissing the multi-staged approach of the deal altogether and giving Hamas an ultimatum to release all the hostages at once.

Here’s what each side is saying, and where the deal could go from here:

Hamas says Israel violated the deal

On Monday, Hamas threatened to postpone the next hostage release, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire deal by targeting Palestinians with gunfire in various parts of Gaza, delaying the return of displaced people to the heavily bombarded north, and not allowing the agreed humanitarian aid to enter the enclave.

The militant group also accused Israel of delaying the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies, as well as not allowing tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, or rubble-removing machines into Gaza.

On Tuesday, the Gaza health ministry said that 92 people in the enclave had been killed in Israeli military operations since the ceasefire came into effect.

Abu Obeida, a spokesman for Hamas’ armed wing, said in a social media post on Monday: “We affirm our commitment to the terms of the agreement as long as the occupation commits to them.”

In a later statement, Hamas added that there was still an opportunity for the release to go forward as planned, saying that Israel has sufficient time “to fulfill its obligations.”

Israel says delay is ‘complete violation’ of deal

Hamas’ postponement is a “complete violation of the ceasefire agreement and the deal to release the hostages,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting with his political and security cabinet on Tuesday, where they expected next steps.

Katz said he instructed the military to “prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza.” The Israeli military also said it was raising the level of readiness in southern Israel and that it would reinforce the area to enhance its “readiness for various scenarios.”

Those announcements also come after Israeli forces opened fire on Sunday in the eastern areas of Gaza City, close to the Gaza border, killing three Palestinians, Palestinian authorities said. The incident happened close to the border fence near Nahal Oz, an Israeli kibbutz, or agricultural commune. Following that incident, Katz said: “Anyone who enters the buffer zone, their blood is on their own head – zero tolerance for anyone who threatens IDF (Israel Defense Forces) forces or the fence area and communities.”

What did Trump say?

President Trump has urged Israel to “let all hell break out” and cancel the ceasefire and hostages deal if Hamas does not return those still being held in Gaza by Saturday.

“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock – I think it’s an appropriate time – I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday,

Trump added that all hostages ought to be returned, not two or three “in drips and drabs,” which is the phased manner of releases outlined in the deal.

Pressed on what “all hell” might entail in Gaza, Trump said, “You’ll find out, and they’ll find out – Hamas will find out what I mean.”

Trump and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are part of the team that helped broker the ceasefire, which was finalized with cooperation between the Biden and Trump camps just before the new administration took office.

The US president went on to say that Palestinians would not have a right to return to Gaza under his plan to take US ownership of the enclave and rebuild it.

Trump also told reporters on Monday: “I think a lot of the hostages are dead.” At least 34 of the hostages are dead, according to Israel, though the true number is expected to be higher.

How likely is the ceasefire to hold?

In short, no one knows.

It took about a year of negotiations to reach the current deal. The first ceasefire, in November 2023, lasted about a week.

The current agreement is set up to progress in three distinct phases, the first of which is already halfway through.

As well as the release of 16 hostages so far, phase one has seen the entry of more humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from parts of Gaza. The Israeli military has retained its presence along Gaza’s borders with Egypt and Israel.

Israel has to date released around a third of the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners agreed for the exchange, some of them held without charge, and others facing life sentences.

Following Israel’s withdrawal from a key militarized zone dividing Gaza, Palestinians began returning to what’s left of their homes in the heavily bombarded north. The “overwhelming destruction of homes and communities in the north” has left people without viable shelter, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which has said “the need for food, water, tents and shelter materials in that area remains critical.”

Meanwhile, negotiations for the second and third phases have barely started.

Netanyahu waited until last weekend – one week after a deadline for further ceasefire talks – to send his delegation to Qatar. Israeli media has speculated that he is simply running out the clock until phase one of the deal expires on March 1.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a key member of Netanyahu’s coalition, has threatened to quit the government if Israel doesn’t return to war after the first phase of the truce.

Amid the maelstrom of indignation around Donald Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza, French President Emmanuel Macron has called for “respect” for Palestinians and their Arab neighbors, batting away the US president’s idea of a mass displacement of Gazans from their homeland.

“The right answer is not a real estate operation, this is a political operation,” he said.

While France has been forthright in its support for Israel’s right to defend itself after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, massacre, Macron has not shied from publicly decrying Israel’s policies and conduct in its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon.

France suspended arms exports to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in October 2024, calling on other nations to follow suit.

“I always reiterated my disagreement with (Israeli) Prime Minister Netanyahu,” Macron said. “I don’t believe, once again, that such a massive operation targeting sometimes civilian people is the right answer.”

Macron said any “efficient” response to rebuilding Gaza “doesn’t mean automatically that you should lack respect to people or countries,” highlighting the wishes of Palestinians to remain on their homelands and the unwillingness of both Jordan and Egypt to accept large numbers of Gazan refugees.

The provocative proposal lofted by Trump outlined a plan to remove Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring Egypt and Jordan, with the US taking “long-term ownership” of the enclave.

Trump stirred up storms of criticism for bigging up Gaza’s real estate potential, suggesting he could redevelop it into a “Middle Eastern Riviera.”

It’s not the first time those in Trump’s orbit floated that idea. Last year, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who served as a senior adviser to Trump in his first term, suggested “cleaning up” Gaza by booting out civilians to unlock the “very valuable” waterfront potential of the territory.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed Trump’s “remarkable idea” during a visit to the US last week. In recent months Israel has seen a wave of far-right settler groups planning and advocating for the redevelopment of Gaza, calling for Arab people to leave and to re-establish Jewish settlements.

Any such land grab from the Palestinians would be illegal under international law, and likely to spark further global condemnation.

Already, like France, the international community has come out vocally against Trump’s plans.

The United Nations was robust, its secretary-general warning Trump against “ethnic cleansing.” Spain’s foreign minister told radio station RNE that “Gazans’ land is Gaza.” In Western Europe, only Dutch far-right figurehead Geert Wilders broke ranks to endorse the plan. “Let Palestinians move to Jordan. Gaza-problem solved!” he wrote on X.

German President Walter Steinmeier said the suggestion was “unacceptable,” and the country’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said it would “lead to new suffering and new hatred.”

But some allies have tried to play both sides, keeping Trump happy while trying to uphold longheld norms over Palestinian rights. “On the issue of Gaza, Donald Trump is right,” UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy told reporters in Ukraine this week. “Looking at those scenes, Palestinians who have been horrendously displaced over so many months of war, it is clear that Gaza is lying in rubble.”

Lammy went on to add: “We have always been clear in our view that we must see two states and we must see Palestinians able to live and prosper in their homelands in Gaza.” His boss, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, also stressed that Palestinians must be allowed back to their homes in Gaza.

France has been full-throated in shooting down plans to displace Palestinians, with the government’s spokesperson describing such a move as a “destabilizing question in the Middle East.”

A couple who bought a London mansion for £32,500,000 ($40,200,000) have been told by a court that they can hand the property back and recoup most of their costs after the house was found to have a huge moth infestation.

Situated on one of the quiet leafy streets just outside Notting Hill, Horbury Villa seemed like the perfect northwest London home. But behind its grand Victorian façade, a colony of moths living in the insulation wreaked havoc across the house, which contains a pool, spa, gym, cinema and wine room.

Iya Patarkatsishvili, the daughter of a Georgian billionaire, and her husband Yevhen Hunyak bought the house in May 2019 from William Woodward-Fisher, a surveyor and residential real estate developer, according to the judgment published Monday.

However, the couple said that once they moved in they found moths on their toothbrushes, towels and wine glasses. The insects also caused damage to their clothes, some of which were thrown away.

At one point, Hunyak said he would kill between 10 and 35 moths every day, while his family and cleaners did the same.

A judge has found in the couple’s favor, ruling that Woodward-Fisher made “fraudulent misrepresentations” and “concealed a serious clothes moth infestation of the insulation in the house” before the sale, according to a press summary of the judgment, published Monday.

Mr Justice Fancourt ruled that Woodward-Fisher had falsely answered three queries before selling the house, including by saying that he didn’t know of any vermin infestation or of any hidden defect in the property.

According to the judgment, Woodward-Fisher’s wife had noticed a problem with clothes moths (Tineola Bisselliella) in early 2018 after new insulation was installed as part of major building works. The help of extermination specialists was enlisted to deal with the problem. She then forwarded some of these emails about the infestation to her husband Woodward-Fisher, the judgment said.

Fancourt noted in his judgment that he didn’t think Woodward-Fisher was “consciously trying to deceive the Claimants. He simply wanted to sell the house and move on.”

As well as granting Patarkatsishvili and Hunyak most of their money back, minus an amount to take into account the period they lived there, Fancourt also awarded them “substantial damages” and all the costs they incurred trying to get rid of the moths.

Plastic tubes meander from Rosella’s nose to a nearby oxygen tank that’s bigger than she is, as she flicks through a book of her drawings: a flower, a house, a chicken.

The 9-year-old needs non-stop medical attention for the bone condition she was born with that has left her ribs pushing dangerously on her lungs, one of which is not working as it should.

Rosella and her mother are refugees living in one of nine remote camps dotted along Thailand’s mountainous border with Myanmar.

About 100,000 people live in the camps, having fled decades of fighting between the Myanmar military and ethnic minority rebel groups. The situation at the border has worsened in recent years by the junta’s coup and ensuing civil war.

Mae La is the biggest camp and its US-funded hospital is the only source of health care for more than 37,000 people living there – mostly from the ethnic Karen minority.

When the Trump administration ordered a 90-day freeze on almost all international aid, halting the US’ entire global development network overnight, the camp hospital was forced to shut its doors, sending shock waves through the refugee community.

Video posted by refugees on social media showed patients at the center being lifted from their hospital beds and carried out in hammocks covered in blankets.

Rosella was moved to a nearby improvised health center, along with other patients with chronic conditions. But there are no longer any doctors to treat her.

Numerous aid workers in northern Thailand described widespread panic and confusion following the sudden suspension of aid, especially among those whose work provides life-saving services to some of the world’s most vulnerable and impoverished people on both sides of the border.

“We have never faced a problem like this before,” said Saw Bweh Say, secretary of the Karen Refugee Committee, which represents refugees in the Thai camps.

Anxiety over medicine and food

Refugees in the Thai border camps live a fragile and isolated existence.

They cannot legally work and need a permit to even leave the camp. The Thai government considers the camps temporary settlements, but some communities have been there for generations.

Basic services such as health care, education, sanitation, water and food are provided by international aid donors. In Mae La, and six other camps, those funds come almost entirely from the US – the world’s largest aid donor – through the International Rescue Committee.

Though the camp hospitals are more akin to field clinics, with tin roofs and intermittent power, they are the only source of health care for tens of thousands of people.

“If it’s an emergency, how can we face the situation? That burdens a lot of people here,” said Ni Ni, 62, who has heart failure and kidney disease.

For some, it’s already too late. In nearby Umpiem camp, an elderly lady with breathing problems died after she could not access supplemental oxygen due to the hospital closure, an IRC spokesperson said.

An IRC spokesperson said they had to start shutting outpatient departments and other facilities in the camps following the stop-work order. Management of the medical facilities, equipment and water system has been transferred to Thai authorities and camp commanders, though the IRC continues to source medicine and fuel using non-US funds.

Teams of refugee medics, midwives and nurses are working round-the-clock helping to plug the gaps, while families scramble for alternative treatment for their loved ones.

“Karen families donated medicine and oxygen tanks, but that’s not enough,” said Pim Kerdsawang, an independent NGO worker in the border city of Mae Sot.

Compounding their concerns is the cost of food. Feeding more than 100,000 refugees across all nine camps for one month costs $1.3 million dollars, and the organization that provides the food and cooking fuel says it has only enough money to last for a month and a half.

Refugees use a food card system to buy items in the camp shops, which is paid for by The Border Consortium. The food and cooking fuel are funded by State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM), the group said.

“The main concern is not having the means to provide the refugees with food and cooking fuel. So far, there is no alternative to the US grant,” said Leon de Riedmatten, executive director of The Border Consortium.

The organization has started prioritizing the most vulnerable refugees who have no income of their own, Riedmatten said, as the aid freeze and continuous arrival of new refugees fleeing violence in Myanmar drains the funds.

Thai hospitals bear the brunt

When Tawatchai Yingtaweesak heard the camp hospitals had shut, his team raced to see how they could help.

Tawatchai is director of the Tha Song Yang hospital, about a 30-minute drive from sprawling Mae La.

With no doctors on duty in the camps, his hospital and several others have stepped in to treat refugees with serious and emergency conditions.

Tawatchai said suddenly closing the US-funded hospital was “dangerous” and, since the aid freeze, his facility has taken in between 20 and 30 refugee patients.

He is working with camp medics and helping to deliver oxygen, among other supplies, but says this can only be a temporary fix. His hospital serves about 100,000 people and while they can cope, he worries that this year’s rainy season will overwhelm them.

Typically starting around June, the monsoon is “high season for disease,” Tawatchai said, with a surge in mosquito-borne diseases and children with pneumonia.

Naw Mary, 32, was rushed to the maternity ward at Tha Song Yang on Sunday, suffering from high blood pressure. Far from her family and home at the camp, she was about to give birth to her first child.

“They said it was risky to deliver a child in the camp without a doctor and facilities so they referred me to this hospital,” Naw Mary said.

Nervous and excited to bring her baby into the world, Naw Mary also said she’s concerned about follow-up care for her newborn and herself.

“Why did they have to stop helping the refugees?” she asked.

‘Those who are really in need’

The pain created by the US aid freeze goes beyond the refugee camps.

They include cuts to vaccine, education and resettlement programs, domestic violence shelters, anti-human-trafficking initiatives, safe houses for dissidents, and help for displaced people.

For more than 30 years, the Mae Tao clinic near Mae Sot has been a lifeline for vulnerable and impoverished migrants from Myanmar. The clinic handles almost 500 patients a day, and 20% of its funding comes from the US.

Now that funding has been put on hold, the clinic has to reallocate part of its budget so their health care services are not impacted.

“This fund we only use for vulnerable people and those who are really in need,” said Saw Than Lwin, deputy director of organization and development at Mae Tao.

Nearby the clinic, aid workers with the Burma Children Medical Fund load boxes of supplies containing food, infant formula baby milk powder, medicine, and eye screening kits, into a van.

It’s headed across the Moei River, a border between Thailand and Myanmar, to help thousands of people just kilometers away displaced by Myanmar military airstrikes and ground attacks.

The needs in Myanmar are huge, aid workers say, where millions of people struggle with hunger, trauma and the constant threat of attacks.

“The places that we’re working in are the remotest areas in all of Burma, very hard to reach communities without other alternatives to medical assistance,” said Salai Za Uk Ling, founder of the Chin Human Rights Organization.

About 30% of CHRO’s funding comes from the USAID and the group, which provides medical and mental health care to tens of thousands of people in Myanmar’s northwest, has had to cut vital services and lay off staff in the past three weeks.

“Rural communities, people who are living in displaced situation, don’t know a whole lot about international politics, all they care about is their daily survival,” Za Uk said.

“How do we even begin to explain to them why this is happening?”

In Myanmar’s Kayah state, also known as Karenni, the aid suspension has meant teachers’ salaries cannot be paid, leaving kids without education, said Banya Khung Aung, founder and director of the Karenni Human Rights Group.

If they had more notice, groups like his could have sourced alternative funding, he said.

Waivers not being processed

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has claimed the US is continuing to provide lifesaving humanitarian aid. Rubio, now the acting administrator of USAID, reiterated last week that he had issued a blanket waiver for lifesaving programs.

“If it’s providing food or medicine or anything that is saving lives and is immediate and urgent, you’re not included in the freeze. I don’t know how much more clear we can be than that,” Rubio said, questioning the competency of organizations that haven’t applied for a waiver.

Even if funds are made available after the 90-day freeze, “who would then communicate to us or be knowledgeable enough to process what is left of the system?” asked Za Uk from CHRO.

“By time that any funding reaches us, unfortunately for those suffering from serious medical condition might be lost.”

In his January 20 executive order, President Donald Trump said the “US foreign aid industry” serves to “destabilize world peace” and is “in many cases antithetical to American values.”

But those affected in northern Thailand are some of the world’s most vulnerable people who rely on US aid to survive.

In Mae La camp, Rosella can’t stray far from her oxygen tank. She needs one tank every two days, her mother said.

Complicating their family’s situation is that Rebecca is five months pregnant. She used to get her ultrasounds and prenatal care at the hospital, but that has all stopped as well.

“I don’t know what to do. There are no doctors to go and see right now for this pregnancy,” she said.

“I’m worried for my daughter and this pregnancy, worried for everyone.”

Rome (Reuters) — Around 130 people were arrested on Tuesday in a large-scale sting against the Sicilian mafia in Palermo, indicating that it has remained a significant criminal force despite setbacks in recent decades.

“Cosa Nostra,” the mafia syndicate based in and around Palermo, terrorized Italy in the 1980s and 1990s, but has since been overtaken as Europe’s most powerful mob by the Calabrian ‘Ndrangheta.

The suspects apprehended on Tuesday were charged with various crimes, including drug trafficking, attempted murder, extortion, illegal online gambling and illegal possession of firearms, Carabinieri police said in a statement.

Additional arrest warrants were issued for 33 suspects who were already in prison for other crimes.

Investigations revealed that Palermo’s mafia families coordinate their activities across the city and its province, like they used to in the golden days of Cosa Nostra, especially as regards drug trafficking, police said.

They said inner city families had regained authority compared to the years in which they were dominated by a faction from Corleone – a town outside Palermo that was the birthplace of notorious bosses Toto Riina and Bernardo Provenzano.

Modern-day bosses use modern technology to conduct their business, using encrypted mobile phones that are smuggled into prisons to allow jailed bosses to continue exercising their command, investigators said.

Despite being weakened by law enforcement activities, Cosa Nostra continues to attract young people, the Carabinieri said, noting they documented one instance of a new recruit given “mafia lessons” by an older associate.

The would-be mentor gave the young man “specific instructions, inviting him to take as an example his conduct towards people to be subjected to extortion, and advising him on how to relate with mafia leaders,” the police statement said.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, writing on X, hailed Tuesday’s arrests as inflicting “a very hard blow to Cosa Nostra,” and giving a clear signal that “the fight against the mafia has not stopped and will not stop.”

South Korean police on Tuesday were questioning an elementary school teacher who allegedly stabbed a first grader to death in the city of Daejeon.

The killing on Monday during after-school care has shocked the nation and prompted the country’s acting president to order school safety standards reviewed.

The female suspect was receiving medical treatment for self-inflicted wounds following the death of the girl in an audio-visual room on the second floor of the school, said Yuk Jong-myeong, chief of Daejeon’s western district police station.

The suspect, reported to be in her 40s, told police that she had recently returned to work after a period of leave for health reasons, Yuk said. She told police she has received treatment for depression since 2018.

After the first-grade student was reported missing at 5:15 p.m. local time Monday, police and family members searched throughout the school and surrounding areas. Her grandmother found her in the audio-visual room around 5:50 p.m. The girl was rushed to the hospital, where she was pronounced dead.

Choi Sang-mok, who is the country’s acting leader due to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, called for a thorough investigation into the killing and instructed education authorities to “implement necessary measures to ensure such incidents never happen again.”

Visitors laid flowers and condolence letters at the gate of the school, which was closed on Tuesday.

Sam Kerr, one of the world’s top female soccer players, was found not guilty Tuesday of racially aggravated harassment of a police officer.

Kerr, a striker for Australia and for English club Chelsea, accepted she called Police Constable Stephen Lovell “stupid and white” during a heated exchange at a police station after a night out in London in January 2023, but had denied that it amounted to the charge.

The verdict came after more than four hours of deliberations by a 12-person jury and on the seventh day of the trial at Kingston Crown Court in London.

“Following today’s not guilty verdict, I can finally put this challenging period behind me,” Kerr said in a statement posted on Instagram. “While I apologize for expressing myself poorly on what was a traumatic evening, I have always maintained that I did not intend to insult or harm anyone and I am thankful that the jury unanimously agreed.”

It is alleged Kerr and her fiancée, Kristie Mewis, a U.S. soccer player contracted to English team West Ham, had been out drinking when they were driven to the police station by a taxi driver, who complained that they refused to pay clean-up costs after one of them was sick, and that one of them smashed the vehicle’s rear window.

Kerr, who said she feared for her life as she felt “trapped” during the taxi ride, is alleged to have become abusive and insulting toward Lovell at the police station and used expletives while calling him “stupid and white.” During cross-examination in court, Kerr said she regretted the way she expressed herself and denied that calling Lovell “white” was used as an insult.

Kerr, who identifies as a white Anglo-Indian, said: “I believed it was him using his power and privilege over me because he was accusing me of being something I’m not … I was trying to express that due to the power and privilege they (the police) had, they would never have to understand what we had just gone through, and the fear we were having for our lives.”

After the jury reached its verdict, Judge Peter Lodder said of Kerr: “I take the view her own behavior contributed significantly to the bringing of this allegation. I don’t go behind the jury’s verdict but that has a significant bearing on the question of costs.”

Kerr’s trial has been headline news in Australia, with each day in court thoroughly dissected by the domestic media.

Debate over the charge has ranged from the validity of the allegation, to Kerr’s conduct while being interviewed by police.

Her position as captain of the Matildas, the much-loved national women’s soccer team, has been called into question by critics. Kerr is the captain and all-time leading scorer for Australia, with 69 goals since her debut in 2009.

Football Australia said it welcomed Kerr’s statement and that it will speak with her about the incident.

“Football Australia invests heavily in building the behavioral standards and expectations of all involved with our game, especially for all our national team players, where leadership comes with added responsibilities on and off the field,” a Football Australia statement said. “(We) will reflect with Sam on learnings from this matter and we will continue to provide appropriate support for her moving forward.”

The statement Wednesday also said that Football Australia “recognize the significant pressures that this matter has brought to Sam, Kristie, her family, and everyone involved, including the impact it’s had on the game.

“Throughout this period, Football Australia has remained committed to supporting Sam and will continue to do so as she focuses on her footballing career, rehabilitation from injury and return to play.”

Kerr joined Chelsea in 2019 and has scored 99 goals in 128 games for the London club, which is the defending English champion and a top contender for the Women’s Champions League title.

She hasn’t played since sustaining an ACL injury during a warm-weather training camp with Chelsea in Morocco in January 2024.

Kerr is expected to return in the coming weeks, in time to play for Australia in a pair of international friendlies against South Korea in April in the lead-up to the 2026 AFC Asian Cup.

As the war in Ukraine grinds toward its fourth year, US President Donald Trump has made clear which world leader he thinks can help America end the conflict: Vladimir Putin’s ally Xi Jinping.

“Hopefully, China can help us stop the war with, in particular, Russia-Ukraine … they have a great deal of power over that situation, and we’ll work with them,” Trump told political and business elites gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last month.

Trump expressed that hope, he has repeatedly said, in a call with the Chinese leader days before being sworn in last month – and it’s a subject that could be raised in the coming days as officials from around the world gather in Munich for an annual security conference.

While Trump may have complicated his plan to orchestrate peace alongside Xi by imposing a blanket 10% tariff on Chinese imports into the United States earlier this month, the war in Ukraine could be a rare issue of collaboration – especially as Beijing looks to avert deepening trade frictions.

“Given the stakes on US-China relations, if Trump prices China’s cooperation as the one critical issue that could improve US-China relations, I think China will be very tempted … (and could) play a helpful role,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. At the same time, she added, Beijing will be wary of undermining its alignment with Russia.

China has long sought to position itself as a potential peace broker in the conflict –promoting its own vaguely-worded proposal to settle the war. But in the West, its bid has so far been overshadowed by another reality: Beijing’s abiding support for Putin’s Russia.

The stakes would be high for Xi to risk damaging that partnership, which the Chinese leader has built up as a critical part of his broader goals to counter pressure from the West and reshape a world order in China’s favor.

And a negotiating table where Xi has a prominent seat is also one where Putin, not Trump, has a staunch partner – a reality that Washington would have to navigate carefully if it doesn’t want to risk isolating European allies or reach a solution that’s unacceptable to Ukraine, analysts say.

“The real outcome that Beijing would like to avoid is a very much weakened Russia,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore. “Because then … (Beijing) would be lacking one major partner.”

An end in sight?

The future of the conflict is expected to feature heavily on the agenda of the upcoming Munich Security Conference beginning Friday in Germany, where US Vice President JD Vance is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will also lead a delegation from Beijing.

Looming over the gathering is a dramatic tone shift in Washington’s approach to the war. Trump has questioned American aid to the embattled country, which his predecessor Joe Biden and US NATO allies have seen as critical to defending not just Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but the rules-based world order.

In a Fox News interview earlier this week, the notoriously transactional Trump instead suggested that the US should be getting access to Ukraine’s rich natural resources in exchange for military assistance. He also suggested that Ukraine “may be Russian someday,” and said his administration has made “tremendous progress” in laying the groundwork for potential peace talks with Russia and Ukraine, without providing details.

Zelensky has said he is willing to negotiate with Putin – but only if the US and Europe continue to support Ukraine and “provide security guarantees,” while Russia in recent days reiterated that it would only accept a peace that saw Ukraine give up ambitions to join NATO and cede regions annexed by Russia.

But while Trump is pushing for a swift end to the war, his administration has yet to lay out specifics on what kind of peace terms they are hoping to see agreed upon.

How much Trump would look to work alongside Xi – and whether the Chinese leader is amenable – may also depend to an extent on those parameters, observers say. Western leaders in the past have tried, without success, to persuade Xi to push Putin toward a peace in line with the one advocated for by Zelensky and Ukraine.

Even as China has claimed neutrality in the conflict and called for peace, it’s emerged as a key diplomatic and economic lifeline for Russia throughout the war, including by sending it dual-use goods NATO leaders have said are feeding Russia’s defense sector and enabling its military. Beijing defends its trade as part of normal relations with Russia.

It’s likely that in Trump’s eyes, all that gives Xi leverage over Putin. But close observers of China’s foreign policy say it’s not so straightforward.

“Can China threaten to cut off the supply (of essential goods to Russia)? It can’t, because China cannot afford a completely failed Russia,” said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor focusing on Chinese politics at the City University of Hong Kong. He pointed to Beijing’s calculus that its relations with the US and Europe have already soured to such an extent that they have no choice but to continue to back their only powerful diplomatic ally.

Xi and Putin memorably declared their “no limits” partnership weeks before Russian tanks rolled over Ukraine’s sovereign borders – a pledge made based on their shared opposition to NATO and a view that the US-led West is declining while they are on the rise.

Xi also sees Putin as a potential source of economic and diplomatic support if Beijing were ever to invade Taiwan, some observers say. Xi’s ambition to take control of the self-ruling democracy may be another key reason why he would be wary of any move that could harm that relationship.

The Chinese leader may also be enjoying the war’s role as a distraction for the US away from a focus on Asia and Taiwan – something the Trump’s cohort, including Vice President Vance, have pointed out.

As a US senator, Vance last year argued that the US supplying Ukraine with air defense systems could hurt its ability to aid Taiwan’s defense if China were to attack the island that it claims as its own.

Xi as peacemaker?

Working with Trump to pressure Putin to a negotiating table – whatever the terms of a deal – would also mark a stark shift in Beijing’s approach to the conflict so far.

Xi and his officials have used the war as a platform to promote a vision for a China-led world, one where the American alliance system has been dismantled or weakened.

“China focuses on building a coalition of non-Western nations, including influential developing countries like Brazil, to leverage the Ukraine conflict toward reshaping global security architecture and advancing an alternative vision of world order,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the US.

Beijing will have little incentive to engage in substantial cooperation with Washington for now, said Zhao, noting that its officials would, however, wait and see what benefits could be gained from any potential, broader deal-making with Trump.

That said, the current American president – a NATO critic, who has repeatedly voiced personal admiration for Putin and Xi – may be a more appealing negotiating partner for both strongmen.

Trump before taking office called for an “immediate ceasefire and negotiations” – a position that jives with Beijing’s stated stance on the war that has been criticized by the West as helpful to Russia. He’s also in recent weeks echoed Moscow and Beijing’s talking points, sympathizing with the Kremlin’s view that Ukraine should not be part of NATO and that the war continued because America “started pouring equipment” into Ukraine.

US lawmakers and some members of Trump’s administration remain tough on both countries. But Trump’s stance raises the question of whether there is a deal that Beijing, Moscow and Washington could orchestrate that would please all three – and what that could mean for Ukraine and the future of the conflict.

“You can see how each could take something from (certain peace deals) – Putin can save face, Xi and Trump can claim to be peacemakers,” said Robert Ward, director of geo-economics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain.

But there’s a risk in any agreement where Russia is left in possession of the parts of Ukraine it’s now occupying that this becomes “a conflict that isn’t at an end, it’s just a lull,” he said.