Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has controversially broken royal protocol and claimed in his upcoming memoir that Queen Elizabeth II was suffering from bone cancer before her death.

In the book, which hits shelves on October 10 and has been serialized this week in the Daily Mail newspaper – which Johnson also writes for – he recalled the monarch’s final days at Balmoral, Scotland.

Johnson formally stepped down just two days before Elizabeth II’s death in September 2022, and in the years since, there has been fierce speculation over exactly how she passed away.

“I had known for a year or more that she had a form of bone cancer, and her doctors were worried that at any time she could enter a sharp decline,” he wrote in the excerpt.

Johnson’s account is the first public indication by a former senior government official as to what the Queen’s cause of death might have been. It is listed as “old age” on her death certificate.

Johnson isn’t the first prime minister to reminisce about his life, time in office and interactions with the late Queen in an autobiography. Former British leaders Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron all did so but only in generalities and without the same level of vivid detail as Johnson.

Buckingham Palace has a policy not to comment on books released about the royal family and as such has not confirmed or denied Johnson’s assertions.

Johnson, who served as prime minister between 2019 and 2022, recalls traveling to the royal residence of Balmoral for the customary outgoing audience and resignation. Upon his arrival, he remembers being greeted by the Queen’s private secretary Edward Young, who suggested to him that she had deteriorated significantly over the summer.

Thinking back on that last time the pair sat together in the Queen’s drawing room, Johnson said that he understood Young’s forewarning.

“She seemed pale and more stooped, and she had dark bruising on her hands and wrists, probably from drips or injections,” he wrote.

“But her mind – as Edward had also said – was completely ­unimpaired by her illness, and from time to time in our conversation she still flashed that great white smile in its sudden mood-lifting beauty.”

Johnson described the weekly prime minster audiences with the monarch as “a privilege” and “a balm.”

“She radiated such an ethic of ­service, patience and leadership that you really felt you would, if necessary, die for her,” he continued. “That may sound barmy to some people (and totally obvious to many more), but that loyalty, primitive as it may appear, is still at the heart of our system.

“You need someone kind and wise, and above politics, to personify what is good about our country. She did that job brilliantly.”

The late Queen never shared private medical details with the public. Aides within the royal household still maintain that family members have the same right to medical privacy as anyone else.

King Charles III and Catherine, Princess of Wales have bucked the trend and been more open about their health. The two have shared details about their own cancer diagnoses and recoveries.

However, in both instances, they chose not to divulge the specific form of cancer each has been battling. When pressed, aides said they wanted to share their experiences to raise awareness of the disease.

The word “limited” is going to have to do a lot of work in the weeks ahead.

Israel has described its initial ground incursion into southern Lebanon as such, although its key ally, the Biden administration, has already suggested that what may initially begin as small in scope could risk dragging on.

It will take a remarkable amount of efficiency and discipline from the Israeli military and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to know when it is time to stop. Militaries are not particularly keen on pulling back, especially in large scale operations. If the incursion is easygoing, it could incentivize the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to push forward, sensing a weakened enemy against which swift progress can be made. If the going gets tough, the IDF can suggest the mission is more imperative than ever, and that they must push on.

But, quite remarkably after two weeks of technological wizardry and ruthless, calculated attacks against Hezbollah – starting with the simultaneous explosion of communication devices and culminating in the killing of the militant group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah – the playing field may shift. The Israeli military are now walking into the ground trap that their adversary has been setting for them for well over a decade.

They may discover that Hezbollah, its leadership decapitated, is so enfeebled that it is genuinely a less challenging task than imagined to mop up what remains of its ground troops after months of heavy airstrikes. But southern Lebanon was always going to be where the Iran-backed group held the home advantage. Its tunnel network provides them an endless maze for Israeli forces. And so, knowing when to stop is going to be key to this not becoming a quagmire for Israel. Almost every modern war that has dragged on for years began with the idea that it would all be over in a matter of weeks.

While Israel’s operations over the past three weeks have been brutal, they have shown discipline and superior intelligence. But we’re now entering a new phase of this conflict in which key decisions must be made by an Israeli prime minister who was has shown himself to be maximalist in his military steps, and who is also desperately in need of a prolonged conflict to maintain his grip on power. It is going to take some extraordinarily swift dismantling of Hezbollah by the IDF for Netanyahu to be able to pull his forces out in a matter of days, and avoid months of not quite being sure how this all ends.

Does Israel’s Lebanon operation increase the chances of wider war with Iran? The US warned Tuesday of a possible retaliatory ballistic missile strike by Iran on Israel, but that does not translate in to guaranteed damage, given the April interceptions of dozens of similar rockets, and Iran has clearly shown that – so far – it does not have the resources nor the willingness to lead a wider regional response against Israel.

But this is also an increased hazard for the civilians of Lebanon and some form of enduring peace, or at least sustainable calm, in the region. The less likely a wider conflagration is, the less leverage the US and Europe have over the Netanyahu administration. Time and again the West has managed to pull the region back from a brink they have said is perilously close. But now all the red lines to Israel’s north have literally seen troops march over them, and it really is not clear if Iran has any viable means of intervention at this time, outside of missile attacks that it has tried before to little avail.

Yet the arc of retaliation is long, and Iran may exact retribution in ways not imminent yet still horrifically destabilizing – such as its very advanced nuclear program. But immediately they don’t seem to be able to deter Israel in any way.

And so, a fearful month begins, bedeviled by US electoral paralysis, in which any notions of the outgoing Biden administration being able to rein in Israel seem a little fanciful. The White House is, it seems, being told about huge escalations, like the assassination of Nasrallah last week, as they actually happen. If US Vice President Kamala Harris wins, her White House may decide to switch off the taps and slow Israel’s moves. And even Donald Trump, who seems to want all wars to stop, may have less of an appetite for a lengthy Israeli operation deep inside Lebanon that he ends up partially paying for. But on the hustings neither candidate wants to give the other the chance of labeling them weak on defending Israel.

Netanyahu’s full intentions remain unclear. The closure of towns around Metula in northern Israel and shelling across the border has led to some speculation the IDF might be attempting a lightning race West towards the Lebanese city of Tyre, effectively cutting off all of Hezbollah in the country’s south. While this may be attractive strategically on a map, it is potentially a huge task with a lot of unkind geography in its way.

But this is emblematic of the extraordinary jeopardy Israel now finds itself in. With a maximalist leader who had appeared to have shunned all diplomacy, it must now set a limited scope on an operation that it also hopes can permanently redefine the security threat to its north. It must find a way of inflicting significant damage on an adversary that has never been so weak, but also avoid getting caught in a trap.

The Israeli prime minister has sanctioned actions over the past fortnight that have seemed tactically astute despite an apparent disregard for civilian casualties. But they are an outlier in the scope of the past year. The open sore of Gaza – a conflict without a perceivable end, or idea solution for coexistence and political accommodation for the Palestinians – shows how belligerent the current war cabinet can be when faced with larger strategic decisions. For Israel’s military endeavor to last weeks and not months, they will need extraordinary and rare success, discipline, and political wisdom.

Claudia Sheinbaum will take the oath of office Tuesday as Mexico’s first female president in more than 200 years of independence, promising to protect an expanded social safety net and fight for the poor like her predecessor, but facing pressing problems.

The 62-year-old scientist-turned-politician will receive a country with a number of immediate challenges, foremost among them stubbornly high levels of violence, a sluggish economy and hurricane-battered Acapulco.

Sheinbaum romped to victory in June with nearly 60% of the vote, propelled largely by the sustained popularity of her political mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

He took office six years ago declaring “For the good of all, first the poor,” and promising historical change from the neoliberal economic policies of his predecessors. Sheinbaum promised continuity from his popular social policies to controversial constitutional reforms to the judiciary and National Guard rammed through during his final days in office.

Despite her pledge of continuity, she is a very different personality.

“López Obrador was a tremendously charismatic president and many times that charisma allowed him to cover up some political errors that Claudia Sheinbaum will not have that possibility of doing,” said Carlos Pérez Ricart, a political analyst at Mexico’s Center for Economic Research and Teaching. “So, where López Obrador was charismatic, Claudia Sheinbaum will have to be effective.”

He is not leaving her an easy situation.

Her first trip as president will be to the flood-stricken Pacific coast resort of Acapulco.

Hurricane John, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane last week and then reemerged into the ocean and struck again as a tropical storm, caused four days of incredibly heavy rain that killed at least 17 people along the coast around Acapulco. Acapulco was devastated in October 2023 by Hurricane Otis, and had not recovered from that blow when John hit.

Sheinbaum must also deal with raging violence in the cartel-dominated northern city of Culiacan, where factional fighting within the Sinaloa cartel broke out after drug lords Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López were apprehended in the United States after they flew there in a small plane on July 25.

López Obrador has long sought to avoid confronting Mexico’s drug cartels and has openly appealed to the gangs to keep the peace among themselves, but the limitations of that strategy have become glaringly apparent in Culiacan, the capital of Sinaloa state, where gun battles have raged on the city’s streets. Local authorities and even the army — which López Obrador has relied on for everything — have essentially admitted that the fighting will only end when the cartel bosses decide to end it.

But that’s only the latest hotspot.

Drug-related violence is surging from Tijuana in the north to Chiapas in the south, displacing thousands.

While Sheinbaum inherits a huge budget deficit, unfinished construction projects and a burgeoning bill for her party’s cash hand-out programs — all of which could send financial markets tumbling — perhaps her biggest looming concern is the possibility of a victory for Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 US presidential election.

Trump has already vowed to slap 100% tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico. Though that would likely violate the current US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, there are other things Trump could do to make life difficult for Sheinbaum, including his pledge of massive deportations.

Things with its northern neighbor were already tense after López Obrador said he was putting relations with the US embassy “on pause” after public criticism of the proposed judicial overhaul.

First lady Jill Biden struck an optimistic tone for relations with the incoming Sheinbaum administration saying at a reception Monday that, “Under Dr. Sheinbaum’s presidency I know we will continue to build a more prosperous, safe and democratic region — and take the steps in our US-Mexico partnership.”

There are areas where Sheinbaum could try to take Mexico in a new direction. For example, she has a Ph.D. in energy engineering and has spoken of the need to address climate change. López Obrador built a massive new oil refinery and poured money into the state-owned oil company. But his budget commitments do not leave her much room to maneuver.

Jennifer Piscopo, professor of gender and politics at the Royal Holloway University of London who has studied Latin America for decades, said Mexico electing its first female leader is important because it will show girls they can do it too, but it can also create unrealistic expectations.

“Woman firsts are powerful symbols, but they do not gain magic power,” she said. “Especially when the governance challenges are so large, expecting magic solutions overnight can also generate outsized disappointment.”

A woman with the rare condition of two uteruses delivered twins, one from each womb, last month at a hospital in northwestern China, according to health officials and state media.

The mother, identified only be her last name Li, welcomed a boy and a girl via caesarean section, the Xi’an People’s Hospital in Shaanxi province said, calling it a “one in a million” occurrence.

“It is extremely rare for twins to be conceived naturally in each cavity of the uterus, and even rarer for them to be carried to term,” the hospital said on its official account on China’s X-like social media platform Weibo on September 18.

According to the hospital, the new mother was born with two cervixes and two uteruses, a condition called uterine didelphys found in about 1 in 2,000 women.

Her story has captivated Chinese social media and become a trending topic, with more than 50 million views in recent days, many users sharing messages of awe.

“That’s a miracle!” one user wrote, while another said, “How lucky she is!”. Some expressed concern for the mother, one user writing “this must have been tough and dangerous for her!”

Li’s story appeared to show a happy outcome after facing such circumstances, with the hospital disclosing she had miscarried a previous pregnancy.

But in January, Li became pregnant again and discovered during an early ultrasound that she was expecting not just one child but twins – one in each womb.

After “close and strict” medical monitoring, she “successfully” gave birth to a boy weighing 7 pounds, 19 ounces and a girl weighing 5 pounds, 30 ounces, the hospital said.

A bus carrying young students and their teachers on a school trip caught fire in suburban Bangkok on Tuesday, leaving more than 20 feared dead, officials and rescuers said.

The bus with 45 passengers, six teachers and 39 elementary and junior high school students, was traveling from the central Uthai Thani province when it caught fire in Pathum Thani province, a northern suburb of Thailand’s capital, Acting Police Commissioner Kitrat Phanphet said.

The fire was first reported around noon and was put out less than an hour later, but rescuers said they could not get on board for hours as the heat inside the natural gas-fueled vehicle could have caused more explosions.

Police were still working to identify the dead but three teachers and 20 students remain unaccounted for, Kitrat said.

The cause of the blaze was not immediately known. Kitrat said the initial investigation indicates a tire had exploded and caused sparks, which ignited a blaze that spread through the bus. He did not elaborate.

No other vehicles were involved, he said.

There were discrepancies in reports on the number of the people aboard the bus. Rescuers cited teachers who survived as saying there were three buses from the school for this trip and that along the way, some students had moved to different buses from the ones they were initially on.

Videos posted on social media showed the entire bus engulfed in a fire with black smoke pouring out of the bus.

Piyalak Thinkaew, a rescuer from the Ruam Katanyu Foundation, told reporters that most of the bodies were found in the middle and back seats, leading them to assume the victims had moved back and that the fire had started at the front of the bus.

The police were looking for the driver who appeared to have fled the scene, Kitrat said, adding that the bus company and individuals involved may be charged if they are found responsible.

“Such an incident causes a great sorrow and grief,” he told reporters at a news conference.

“There is no way we will distort the fact or help anyone” escape justice, Kitrat said. He added that 16 students had been treated for minor injuries and later sent home while three others were hospitalized.

The nearby patRangsit Hospital said three girls were initially treated there, one with burns to the face, mouth and eyes. Surgeon Anocha Takham said the doctors would do their best to save the girl, who is around 7, from losing her sight.

The girls were later moved to other hospitals for further treatment.

Kitrat said a teacher who survived told police the fire had spread so quickly she didn’t even have the time to grab her mobile phone. Some on board managed to escape through the door while others jumped out through the windows.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra offered her condolences in a post on the social media platform X, promising the government would cover medical expenses and help the victims’ families. She later visited the injured in the hospital.

When reporters asked her about the fire at the Government House, Paetongtarn was overcome by emotion and burst into tears. She became prime minister in August and is the mother of two children.

The accident has prompted criticisms over the safety of children traveling long hours across provinces on roads notorious for their high rates of traffic accidents and deaths.

The World Health Organization estimates that every year, 20,000 people are killed and a million are injured in road accidents in Thailand.

Iran has unleashed its largest ever attack on Israel, firing 180 ballistic missiles late Tuesday most of which were apparently intercepted by anti-missile defenses employed by Israel, the United States and Jordan, according to those countries’ governments.

The aerial assault, far more serious than a similar strike in April, has raised the stakes in what is already an extremely tense moment across the Middle East as a dangerous regional conflict spirals.

Here’s a look at Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and the defensive systems employed by Israeli and other forces in the region.

Iran’s missiles

Tehran has thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles with a variety of ranges, according to a 2021 report from the Missile Threat Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Exact numbers for each type of missile are unknown. But US Air Force Gen. Kenneth McKenzie told Congress in 2023 that Iran had “over 3,000” ballistic missiles, according to a report this year from the Iran Watch website at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.

Ballistic missiles’ trajectories carry them outside or near the limits of Earth’s atmosphere, before the warhead payload separates from the rocket that carried it aloft and plunges back into the atmosphere and onto its target.

The Shahab-3 is the foundation for all Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles using a liquid propellant, according to Patrick Senft, a research coordinator at Armament Research Services (ARES).

The Missile Threat Project says the Shahab-3 entered service in 2003, can carry a warhead of 760 to 1,200 kilograms (1,675 to 2,645 pounds) and can be fired from mobile launchers as well as silos.

Iran Watch says the newest variants of the Shahab-3, the Ghadr and Emad missiles, have accuracies of as close to 300 meters (almost 1,000 feet) of their intended targets.

Iranian media reported that Tehran used a new missile, the Fattah-1, in the attacks. Tehran describes the Fattah-1 as a “hypersonic” missile – meaning it travels at Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound (about 3,800 miles per hour, 6,100 kilometers per hour).

But analysts point out that almost all ballistic missiles reach hypersonic speed during their flights, especially as they dive towards their targets.

The term “hypersonic” is often used to refer to what are called hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles, highly advanced weapons that can maneuver at hypersonic speed inside Earth’s atmosphere. That makes such weapons extremely hard to shoot down.

Fattah-1 is neither of those, according to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who wrote on the subject last year.

Hinz says the Fattah-1 appears to have a warhead on a “maneuverable reentry vehicle,” which enables it to make adjustments to avoid missile defenses during a short portion of its dive to its target.

Still, this ability would be an improvement on Iran’s earlier missiles, Hinz says.

But analysts were skeptical that Iran would have used the new missile for the first time on Tuesday night.

“It’s one of their newest ballistic missiles, and they have a lot to lose from using it,” said Trevor Ball, a former senior explosive ordnance technician for the US Army.

“Israel would get an idea of its capabilities just from being used. There’s also the chance it could fail to function, giving Israel an even greater idea of its capabilities. They get free propaganda and risk nothing by saying it was used.”

Israel’s missile defenses

Israel operates a range of systems to block attacks from everything from ballistic missiles with trajectories that take them out of the atmosphere to low-flying cruise missiles and rockets.

Much attention has been given to its highly effective Iron Dome system, which is used to combat incoming rockets and artillery weapons.

But the Iron Dome is the bottom layer of Israel’s missile defense and is not the system that would have been used to combat the ballistic missiles launched on Tuesday night, according to the country’s Missile Defense Organization (IMDO).

The next rung up the missile defense ladder is David’s Sling, which protects against short- and medium-range threats, according to the IMDO.

David’s Sling, a joint project of Israel’s RAFAEL Advanced Defense System and US defense giant Raytheon, uses Stunner and SkyCeptor kinetic hit-to-kill interceptors to take out targets as far as 186 miles away, according to the Missile Threat Project at the CSIS.

Above David’s Sling are Israel’s Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, jointly developed with the United States.

The Arrow 2 uses fragmentation warheads to destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their terminal phase – as they dive toward their targets – in the upper atmosphere, according to the CSIS.

The Arrow 2 has a range of 56 miles and a maximum altitude of 32 miles, according to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, which called the Arrow 2 an upgrade on the US Patriot missile defenses Israel once used in this role.

Meanwhile, the Arrow 3 uses hit-to-kill technology to intercept incoming ballistic missiles in space, before they reenter the atmosphere on their way to targets.

During Tuesday night’s attack, the US military said it fired at least 12 anti-missile munitions against the incoming Iranian missiles.

The US response came from the Navy guided-missile destroyers USS Cole and USS Bulkeley which were operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

The Pentagon did not specify the interceptors used, but the US destroyers are equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system, with interceptor missiles that can strike and destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their mid-course or terminal phases.

Jordan’s air force also intercepted Iranian missiles on Tuesday night, a Jordanian official said, but no specifics were given.

During an Iranian attack on Israel in April, Israeli and US warplanes shot down a large number of the incoming Iranian munitions. But Iran carried out that attack largely with slower-moving drones, which were much easier intercepts for the fighter jets than the ballistic warheads falling vertically on targets in Israel.

When Femi Aluko found himself isolating at home during the Covid-19 pandemic one question kept coming to mind — how was he going to get food?

He says he struggled to find quick delivery options in Nigeria’s most populous city, Lagos, because restaurants were either closed or had incredibly long waiting times. So, he took matters into his own hands and began searching for a solution.

He found his answer while on a trip to Dubai in 2021. Aluko was shocked by the efficiency of food delivery apps there. “It was just so fast,” he said. “I was like, ‘Yes, if this can work in Dubai, it can also work in Nigeria.’ I was going to come back and try it.”

In October 2021, Aluko and his co-founders launched Chowdeck. The on-demand food delivery app enables customers across eight Nigerian cities to order meals from about 2,000 participating restaurants. Aluko says the app has since grown to serve 600,000 customers and works with more than 6,000 delivery drivers.

A report by McKinsey and Company found the global food delivery market was worth $150 billion in 2021, noting a portion of that rapid growth was due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Chowdeck team saw the opportunities within this global industry and wanted to be the homegrown company that led the way in Nigeria.

“I think that we currently still have a lot more demand than supply. Most delivery companies are struggling with heavy demand because they have a lot more people wanting to order food and trends have also shifted since Covid-19,” Aluko said.

Aluko admits the startup struggled to keep up with demand at times. “We scaled too fast … a lot of customers just bombard our platform,” he said, adding that the company is constantly looking for ways to improve efficiency and deliver to its growing consumer base.

In April, Chowdeck received $2.5 million in seed-funding from several investors and the YCombinator startup accelerator. Aluko says this money will go toward optimizing delivery efficiency and expanding to additional cities throughout Nigeria. “The goal of the funding is to ensure that we’re able to provide and grant the best experience to our customers,” he said.

“SCRATCHING THE SURFACE”

Food delivery apps having been gaining popularity around the world, with Uber Eats and DoorDash among the most used apps in Europe and the US respectively.

A report by management consulting firm IMARC found the country’s online food delivery market is expected to grow by more than 10% to reach nearly $2.4 billion in 2032. One necessity to boost business for on-demand delivery apps is internet access. For years, Nigeria has been increasing its internet penetration, with more than 40% of the population now having broadband access, according to the Nigeria Communications Commission.

In Africa, several startups including FoodCourt, Heyfood, and SendMe are vying to become the continent’s top food delivery app. Many are based in Nigeria, one of Africa’s richest countries, and have also been backed by the Y Combinator — which previously backed DoorDash .

Despite the growing competition in his back yard, Aluko and the Chowdeck team believe their company is just “scratching the surface.” Since launching, it has expanded beyond ready-to-eat food delivery by adding options for pharmacy, grocery, and package delivery services, in response to customer feedback.

As the company grows, Aluko hopes Chowdeck can one day become a “super app for Africa.” “I see us being the app on everyone’s phone … (so that) from travel to transport, everything that you need to do is available for you on one app,” he said.

The Middle East is edging ever closer toward a full-blown regional war as Israel vowed to respond to Iran’s huge barrage of ballistic missiles fired at the country on Tuesday night, capping a day of dramatic military escalation in the region.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said hours after the unprecedented attack.

Iran launched a salvo of about 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets, its largest ever such attack, sending sirens blaring across Israel and activating the country’s sophisticated defensive systems.

Iran’s leadership said the attack was intended as a warning to Israel not to enter a direct war with its longtime enemy, and any Israeli response to the barrage would be met with “stronger and more painful” blows.

The escalation came about 24 hours after Israel launched a ground war in Lebanon to go after Hezbollah, a powerful militant group that is backed by Iran, and days after Israel killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah in a strike on Beirut.

Here’s what we know.

Regional war widens

Tuesday’s attack has further changed the dynamics of the conflict, transitioning from a war involving Iran’s proxies toward a direct confrontation between two regional military powerhouses.

It’s the second time Iran has launched an aerial attack on Israel this year, but Tuesday’s barrage was of a different magnitude.

In April, Iran launched an unprecedented large-scale drone and missile attack at Israel – the first such direct assault on the country from its soil – in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Syria.

Iran gave 72 hours notice ahead of that attack, which was widely seen as designed to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle with almost all of the 300 projectiles knocked out of the sky by Israel’s defense systems.

Israel responded a week later with a limited strike on Iran.

This time, Israel learned about the imminent threat just hours before Tehran launched the strikes, with targets including the headquarters of Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, in Tel Aviv, Israel’s second largest city, Nevatim Air Base and Tel Nof Air Base.

Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Iran’s Tuesday barrage was twice as large as the April attack. It also included many more ballistic missiles, which are harder to shoot down, posing a real threat to Israeli citizens – many of whom evacuated to shelters during the attack.

While the Israeli military said most of the missiles were intercepted, some landed on Israeli soil and appeared to cause damage. Shock waves caused by the attack also damaged homes in central Israel, authorities in the country said.

Has diplomacy in the Middle East failed?

Diplomacy has so far failed to broker a deal between Israel and Hezbollah, and the ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Hamas and Israel have floundered.

“I think Nasrallah was the final straw” for Iran, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence analyst specializing in the region.

With no off-ramp, and Israel appearing unwilling to compromise with its regional enemies, Tuesday’s attack is perhaps the clearest sign a much-feared regional war may be about to ignite.

Meanwhile, both Israel and the US downplayed the effectiveness of the strike. Israel said the attack “failed.”

How we got here

In almost a year of war, increasing escalations have repeatedly brought the region to the edge of an all-out conflict.

In recent days, Israel’s ground incursion into southern Lebanon opened up a whole new front and it has ramped up attacks against other Iran-backed militants, including launching strikes targeting the Houthis in Yemen.

Israel has eliminated Hezbollah’s leadership with a series of attacks and massive airstrikes across Lebanon that have targeted the group’s infrastructure and capabilities, but which have also killed more than 1,000 people, displaced about 1 million, and destroyed homes and neighborhoods.

In Gaza, Israel’s war against Hamas grinds on almost a year after the Palestinian militant group’s attack on Israel. The ensuing war has killed more than 41,000 people, creating a catastrophic humanitarian crisis and left much of the enclave in ruins.

Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are all part of an Iranian-led alliance spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq that has attacked Israel and its allies since the war began. They say they won’t stop striking Israel and its allies until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

What might both sides do next?

Iran has attempted to characterize its attack as a calibrated response to repeated escalations from Israel.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tuesday’s missile strikes focused on Israeli security and military targets and was in response to Israel’s killing of Nasrallah and other commanders, including Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran in July.

Following the assassination of Hamas’ most public figure after attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president, the world held its breath as it waited to see how Tehran would respond.

For months, that response never came and tensions appeared to de-escalate given the grave consequences of an all-out war in the Middle East.

But Israel’s assassinations and the widening war in Lebanon has rapidly changed that equation.

On Saturday, Netanyahu gave a fiery speech directed at Iran, saying Israel was “changing the balance of power in the region” and that “there is no place in Iran or the Middle East that the long arm of Israel will not reach.”

Nasrallah’s death was necessary, he said, to returning thousands of residents to their homes along the Lebanon border displaced by Hezbollah rocket attacks, and to prevent the group from launching a large-scale attack on Israel.

US officials have long assessed that both Iran and senior Hezbollah leadership has wanted to avoid all-out war with Israel, even as both have exchanged fire.

One big fear for US and Arab diplomats is the possibility of Israel striking inside Iran, potentially against its nuclear facilities. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett urged Israel to retaliate by destroying its nuclear program.

But Iran has made clear that any response from Israel would result in further escalation. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday’s operation was “only a portion of our power.”

And Hezbollah itself also remains a dangerous adversary for Israel with an arsenal of military assets it could bring to bear.

US involvement

The US, Israel’s closest ally and biggest weapons supplier, says it will coordinate with Israel on its response to the attack, with State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller pledging there would be consequences.

US Navy destroyers fired interceptors against the Iranian missiles and in recent weeks, the US has moved more of its troops and warships to the region.

Since Israel’s war in Gaza began, US troops have also been the target of escalating attacks by Iran-backed proxy groups. In January, three US Army soldiers were killed and more than 30 service members injured in a drone attack on a small US outpost in Jordan.

During that time, the US has repeatedly stood firm with Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the US will “never hesitate” to protect US forces and interest in the Middle East, and that the US remains ready and “postured” to defend its own forces and Israel.