Killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a step toward changing “the balance of power in the region for years to come,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Saturday.

Israel’s leader sees an opportunity opening up for a fundamental reconfiguration of power in Middle East and he may assume that Hezbollah are mortally wounded. Total victory, however, is elusive, and those who get what they wish for often live to regret it.

Since Sept 17, Israel has dealt the Iran-backed militant group one body blow after another in Lebanon — first the pager and walkie talkie blasts, then a massive air strike on southern Beirut which killed senior commander Ibrahim Aqil (along with at least two dozen civilians), followed three days later by the start of a brutal bombing campaign. By Friday evening – when Nasrallah was killed in a bombing that flattened multiple buildings – Hizballah’s senior leadership had been almost totally eliminated.

Yet recent history offers only bitter lessons for Israeli leaders — and others — who entertain grand ambitions for tectonic changes in Lebanon, and in the Middle East in general.

In June 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon with the goal of crushing the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. Beyond that, it hoped to establish a malleable Christian-dominated government in Beirut and to drive Syrian forces out of the country.

It failed at all three. Yes, Palestinian armed groups in Lebanon were compelled to leave the country under an American-brokered deal that sent them into exile in Tunisia, Yemen and elsewhere. But the goal of quashing Palestinian national aspirations along with the PLO failed. Five years later, the First Palestinian Intifada, or uprising,broke out in Gaza and spread to the West Bank. Today the Palestinians are as adamant and restive as they’ve ever been in their rejection of Israeli occupation.

Israel’s main ally in Lebanon at the time of the invasion was Bashir Al-Gemayel, a Maronite Christian militia leader who was elected by parliament, but before he took office was assassinated in a massive blast in east Beirut. His brother, Amin, replaced him, and under his leadership and with active American involvement and encouragement in May 1983 Lebanon and Israel signed an agreement for the establishment of normal bilateral relations. In the face of intense opposition, the government fell the following February and soon the agreement was abrogated.

The US, which had deployed troops to Beirut after the September 1982 Sabra-Shatila massacres, pulled out after its embassy was twice bombed, along with the US marines and French army barracks in October 1983.

The Lebanese civil war re-erupted and raged on more than six years.

Syrian forces, which had entered Lebanon in 1976 as a “deterrence force” under an Arab League mandate, didn’t leave until 2005 after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri.

Perhaps the most significant outcome of the 1982 Israeli invasion was the birth of Hezbollah, which went on to wage a relentless guerrilla war that compelled Israel to unilaterally withdraw from south Lebanon – significantly the first and only time an Arab military force successfully pushed Israel to retreat from Arab land. This new group, with Iran’s help, proved to be far more lethal and effective than the Palestinian militants Israel had successfully driven out.

Hezbollah went on to fight Israel to a standstill in the 2006 war, and in the following years grew only stronger, with significant Iranian help.

Today Hezbollah is crippled and in disarray, and clearly infiltrated by Israeli intelligence – but still, it would be premature to write its epitaph.

Beyond Lebanon and Israel, there is the example of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, a lesson in the wages of unfettered hubris. As the Iraqi army crumbled and US troops raced to Baghdad, the George W. Bush administration entertained fantasies that the fall of Saddam Hussein would lead to the toppling of regimes in Tehran and Damascus, and ignite a flowering of liberal democracies across the region.

Instead the US occupation of Iraq descended into a blood bath of sectarian violence, in which the US paid dearly in blood and treasure, the people of Iraq even more. The killing of Saddam Hussain allowed Iran to spread its influence to the very heart of the political establishment in Baghdad. Al-Qaeda, shattered by the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, was reborn in Iraq’s Sunni triangle, and eventually morphed into the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

As I write this, I see smoke rising from across Beirut’s battered southern suburbs and recall the words of then-US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who, during the 2006 Israel-Hizballah war, said all the bloodshed and destruction we were witnessing then were “the birth pangs of the new Middle East.”

Beware of those who promise a new dawn, the birth of a new Middle East, a new balance of power in the region. Lebanon is a microcosm of all that can go wrong. It’s the land of unintended consequences.

An eerie calm fell over the Lebanese capital in the hours after Israeli warplanes pummelled its southern suburbs, Hezbollah’s seat of power where hundreds of thousands of civilians live.

The Iran-backed group’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday in a massive bombardment that was the first of the nearly 48 hours of incessant airstrikes. Scores of top commanders and officials were killed alongside him as well as in the attacks that followed. Many civilians are also believed to have been killed.

More than 24 hours after Nasrallah’s body was recovered from the deep pit left behind by the heavy bombs that killed him, a funeral for the militant leader is yet to be scheduled – highly unusual in Islamic tradition where the dead receive a quick burial.

The group is also yet to appoint a new secretary general, defying long-held expectations that the group would rapidly unfurl a succession plan after Nasrallah’s death.

This has added to a pervading sense that Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant group which for decades dominated the country’s politics, had swiftly become a ghost organization. In one fell swoop, Israel seemed to remove not just the group’s leadership, but perhaps also all its contingency plans, further evidence of the profound scope of Israel’s infiltration of the group’s ranks.

“It’s fabricated. There’s no proof that he’s dead,” said Hassan, a Hezbollah supporter leaning on a parked moped, his eyes glassy with tears. “He’s going to appear soon and he’s going to surprise us.”

Abu Mohamad, a middle-aged Shia man displaced from southern Lebanon to a sidewalk in central Beirut, said, “It doesn’t matter if he’s alive or dead, because a leader like Nasrallah lives in us always,” he said. “We will continue on the path he set, and we will return to our homes.”

Nasrallah inspired strong feelings in the Lebanese – revered and reviled in equal measure. But Lebanese across the divide are reeling from the tectonic shifts to the country’s political landscape, and the humanitarian devastation that it has wreaked.

Lebanese authorities believe just under 1,100 people have been killed and around 1 million have been displaced by Israel’s intensified bombardment campaign since it began last Monday. A response, Israel says, to the rocket attacks from Hezbollah that began a day after Hamas attacked on October 7, and which have forced 60,000 people from their homes in northern Israel.

Lebanon’s border villages have also been emptied of around 100,000 villagers by Israeli attacks in turn. Still, Hezbollah has vowed to keep up its border rocket fire until the end of Israel’s offensive in Gaza.

Now, large parts of the densely populated southern suburbs have been devastated. The displaced have taken to the relatively affluent, and still untouched, western parts of the capital where they have camped out on sidewalks, parks, schools, churches and mosques.

Mattresses and blankets for displaced families cover the Corniche, the city’s seaside boardwalk, known for its views of the eastern Mediterranean against the backdrop of verdant green mountains.

When Israeli bombs hit the south of the capital on Friday, the streets of west Beirut filled with people throughout the night. Some of the displaced were chatting on the curb, a few lay asleep on benches. Women cradled sleeping babies and toddlers. Children wandered the streets in their pajamas, snaking aimlessly through double parked cars.

On the city’s commercial Hamra street, a crowd outside an abandoned building forced the traffic to a near stop. A man knocked down the iron gate, allowing a flood of displaced people in for shelter.

It was 3 o’clock in the morning. Nasrallah had only recently been assassinated – though not yet confirmed by his group – and many of his supporters were trying to put on a brave face.

“We’re ok! I’m sure our home is ok. There’s nothing to worry about,” one woman in her early 60s told a group of people around her.

Days later, the sense of dread is more palpable. Many of the country’s displaced have lost loved ones but can barely find the time to grieve as they scramble for shelter and food. Those not yet personally impacted by the bombardment must contend with the unknown territory into which the death of Nasrallah and his cadre of senior leaders has thrust the country.

“The assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah came to open a wound in the heart of the Lebanese,” the Patriarch of the Maronite Church, Bechara Boutros al-Rahi said at Sunday Mass.

Rahi has long been one of Hezbollah’s most prominent critics. In January he implicitly criticized Hezbollah for dragging the south of Lebanon into conflict with its cross-border rocket and drone attacks on Israel. Hezbollah has repeatedly vowed not to cease fire on its southern border until the end of Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza.

Rahi had also condemned “the culture of death that has brought nothing but imaginary victories and shameful defeats to our country.”

Nasrallah’s main Sunni foes have also condemned the assassination. “The assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has brought Lebanon and the region to a new phase of violence. It was a cowardly act that we condemn in every way,” Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said in a post on X.

“We disagreed a lot with the late (Nasrallah) and with his party, and we met infrequently. However Lebanon serves as a tent for all, and in these extremely challenging times, our unity and our solidarity remains foundational,” Hariri continued.

Lebanon’s complex confessional power-sharing structure has mean that divisions frequently spark internal strife, political paralysis and even violence. But Israel, technically classified in Lebanon as an “enemy state,” has historically brought the fragmented country together, albeit temporarily.

Meanwhile, civilians wandering the streets for safety have borne the cost of this new war.
At central Martyr’s Square in central Beirut, against the backdrop of a poster that read in big letters “Beirut will not die” barefoot children were smeared in black dirt and families slept on straw mats. An elderly woman who fled her neighbourhood, leaving all possessions behind, was selling tissue boxes.

“We sleep on sidewalks because we have no choice,” said Umm Fawzi, from southern Beirut. “I swear that we fled only with the clothes on our back. There was not a living soul left in the neighborhood.”

The Freedom Party secured the first far-right national parliamentary election victory in post-World War II Austria on Sunday, finishing ahead of the governing conservatives after tapping into anxieties about immigration, inflation, Ukraine and other issues. But its chances of governing were unclear.

Preliminary official results showed the Freedom Party finishing first with 29.2% of the vote and Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party was second with 26.5%. The center-left Social Democrats were in third place with 21%. The outgoing government – a coalition of Nehammer’s party and the environmentalist Greens – lost its majority in the lower house of parliament.

Herbert Kickl, a former interior minister and longtime campaign strategist who has led the Freedom Party since 2021, wants to be chancellor.

But to become Austria’s new leader, he would need a coalition partner to command a parliamentary majority. Rivals have said they won’t work with Kickl in government.

The far right has benefited from frustration over high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. It has also built on worries about migration.

In its election program, titled “Fortress Austria,” the Freedom Party calls for “remigration of uninvited foreigners,” for achieving a more “homogeneous” nation by tightly controlling borders and suspending the right to asylum via an emergency law.

The Freedom Party also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, is highly critical of Western military aid to Ukraine and wants to bow out of the European Sky Shield Initiative, a missile defense project launched by Germany. Kickl has criticized “elites” in Brussels and called for some powers to be brought back from the European Union to Austria.

“We don’t need to change our position, because we have always said that we’re ready to lead a government, we’re ready to push forward this change in Austria side by side with the people,” Kickl said in an appearance alongside other party leaders on ORF public television. “The other parties should ask themselves where they stand on democracy,” he added, arguing that they should “sleep on the result.”

Nehammer said it was “bitter” that his party missed out on first place, but noted he brought it back from lower poll ratings. He has often said he won’t form a coalition with Kickl and said that “what I said before the election, I also say after the election.”

More than 6.3 million people were eligible to vote for the new parliament in Austria, an EU member that has a policy of military neutrality.

Kickl has achieved a turnaround since Austria’s last parliamentary election in 2019. In June, the Freedom Party narrowly won a nationwide vote for the first time in the European Parliament election, which also brought gains for other European far-right parties.

Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, whose party dominates the Netherlands’ new government, congratulated the Freedom Party on social network X Sunday. So did Alice Weidel, a co-leader of the Alternative for Germany party.

The Freedom Party is a long-established force but Sunday’s result was its best yet in a national parliamentary election, beating the 26.9% it scored in 1999.

In 2019, its support slumped to 16.2% after a scandal brought down a government in which it was the junior partner. Then-vice chancellor and Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache resigned following the publication of a secretly recorded video in which he appeared to offer favors to a purported Russian investor.

The leader of the Social Democrats, a party that led many of Austria’s post-World War II governments, positioned himself as the polar opposite to Kickl. Andreas Babler ruled out governing with the far right and labeled Kickl “a threat to democracy.”

While the Freedom Party has recovered, the popularity of Nehammer’s People’s Party declined sharply compared with 2019. Support for the Greens, their coalition partner, also dropped to 8%.

During the election campaign, Nehammer portrayed his party, which has taken a tough line on immigration in recent years, as “the strong center” that would guarantee stability amid multiple crises.

But crises ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting rising energy prices and inflation also cost it support. The government also angered many Austrians in 2022 with a short-lived coronavirus vaccine mandate, the first in Europe.

But the recent flooding caused by Storm Boris that hit Austria and other countries may have helped Nehammer slightly narrow the gap as a crisis manager.

The People’s Party is the far right’s only way into government, and now holds the key to forming any administration.

Nehammer repeatedly excluded joining a government led by Kickl, describing him as a “security risk” for the country, but didn’t rule out a coalition with the Freedom Party itself — which would imply Kickl renouncing a position in government. But that looks very unlikely with the Freedom Party in first place.

The alternative would be an alliance between the People’s Party and the Social Democrats — with or without the liberal Neos, who took 9% of the vote.

A final official result will be published later in the week after a small number of remaining postal ballots have been counted, but those won’t change the outcome substantially.

About 300 protesters gathered outside the parliament building in Vienna Sunday evening, holding placards with slogans including “Kickl is a Nazi.”

Days of heavy monsoon rains in Nepal have triggered widespread flooding and landslides across the Himalayan nation, killing almost 200 people and causing widespread destruction.

Images from the capital show much of southern Kathmandu and nearby cities underwater or buried in thick mud as incessant torrential rains caused major rivers to swell far above danger levels.

The floods and landslides have destroyed hundreds of homes, cut off highways, and downed power lines, which hit just months after the country experienced deadly record rainfall and flash flooding that scientists say has intensified as a result of the climate crisis.

Search and rescue teams have struggled to reach residents buried under their homes or trapped by flooding in remote areas.

In hard-hit Lalitpur, south of Kathmandu, images showed the Nepal Armed Police Force using zip lines to traverse a flooded river, while elsewhere rescue teams could be seen digging with their bare hands to free residents buried under mud and rubble, or using boats and helicopters to reach people stranded on rooftops.

More than 3,700 people have been rescued, police said, but authorities believe the death toll will rise as rescue teams reach more remote and cut off areas.

Floods and damage from landslides have also affected much of the central and eastern parts of the country.

The bodies of 16 people were recovered Sunday from two buses that had been traveling along a key road out of Kathmandu when they were hit by a huge landslide, according to Reuters. One image showed a tourist bus partially submerged in mud with its windshield smashed in.

Video posted by Nepal Police shows the moment a two-year-old boy was rescued from his collapsed house in Bhimeshwor, Dolakha district, following a landslide. According to police, the boy’s parents and brother died.

Parts of the capital reported rain up to 322.2 millimeters (12.7 inches), pushing the level of its main Bagmati river up 2.2 meters (7 feet) past the danger mark, Reuters reported.

Further west of the capital, one international student described how “water was rushing through the streets in Pokhara,” the country’s second most populous city and a popular tourist destination known as a gateway for trekking in the Himalayas.

On Sunday, rains had eased in several areas allowing a major clean-up operation to begin. However, Kathmandu remained cut off with three highways into the city blocked by landslides, Associated Press reported. Schools have also closed for three days, according to Reuters.

Nepal is no stranger to heavy annual monsoon rains, but experts say this year was particularly bad.

“I’ve never before seen flooding on this scale in Kathmandu,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, the environmental risks expert at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), in a statement.

Experts there said in a statement the impacts of the weekend’s extreme rainfall in Nepal have been exacerbated by rampant development and urbanization, including unplanned construction on floodplains and poor drainage.

They have called on the government and city planners to increase funding for underground stormwater and sewage systems and the restoration of wetlands to help cities absorb more water.

South Asia is home to about a quarter of the world’s population and is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of the human-caused climate crisis and its intensification of extreme weather. Recent studies have shown that Asia will only become more vulnerable to extreme rain and flooding by 2030.

China has taken a step forward in its ambitious plan to land astronauts on the moon by 2030 – unveiling the specially designed spacesuit its crew will don for what’s expected to be a landmark mission in the country’s space program.

The new red-and-white suit – revealed by the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) over the weekend – is made to withstand the moon’s extreme temperatures, as well as radiation and dust, while allowing astronauts physical flexibility to perform tasks on the lunar surface, according to state media.

The moon-landing suit is equipped with a built-in long and short-range camera, an operations console, and a glare-proof helmet visor, according to a video shared by state broadcaster CCTV, which featured well-known Chinese astronauts Zhai Zhigang and Wang Yaping demonstrating how astronauts wearing the suit can bend and climb a ladder.

The new technology has caught international attention.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk shared a post on the platform X featuring the CCTV video and his own caption.

“Meanwhile, back in America, the [Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)] is smothering the national space program in kafkaesque paperwork!” he wrote, in an apparent reference to the perceived speed with which China has bolstered its space program relative to the US.

SpaceX’s fortunes – and Musk’s personal wealth – have been boosted in recent years by huge government contracts as NASA has sought to tap into the private sector on space exploration and logistics.

Space leader

China’s reveal of the moon-landing spacesuit comes as the country has mounted a significant effort to establish itself a major player in space – a domain that nations, including the United States, are increasingly looking to not only for scientific benefit, but also with an eye to resources and national security.

The China National Space Administration has in recent years carried out a series of increasingly complex robotic lunar missions, including the first-ever return of lunar samples from the far side of the moon earlier this year. It has been angling to become the second country to land astronauts on the moon, saying its first crewed mission will take place “by 2030.”

The US, which has not sent astronauts to the moon since 1972, is also planning to send a crew this decade, though it has delayed its initial timeline for its Artemis III mission. That mission will not take off until at least September 2026, NASA said earlier this year. The agency revealed a protoype of its Artemis III spacesuit prototype, the AxEMU, in 2023.

China’s new spacesuit was hailed across state media as a major step forward in the country’s crewed mission timeline, with experts noting the need for specifically formulated suit for lunar conditions versus those used in spacewalks by astronauts at China’s Tiangong orbital space station.

Thanks to its thin exosphere, the moon is an unforgiving place, exposed to both the sun’s rays and the cold of space. Temperatures near the Moon’s equator, for example, can spike to 250°F (121°C) in the day and then plunge at night to -208°F (-133°C), according to NASA.

“Unlike low-Earth orbit missions, astronauts will be in a harsh natural lunar environment during lunar extravehicular activities. Complex environmental factors such as high vacuum and low gravity, lunar dust and lunar soil, complex lunar surface terrain, high and low temperatures, and strong radiation will have a significant impact on work and protection,” Wu Zhiqiang, deputy chief designer of astronaut systems at the China Astronaut Research and Training Center, told state broadcaster CCTV.

Others also hailed the aesthetics of the suit, with state media describing the red stripes on its upper limbs are inspired by ribbons from the “flying apsaras,” or deities that appear in ancient art in western China’s Dunhuang city, while those on its lower limbs resembling “rocket launch flames.”

Another designer, Wang Chunhui, told state media the suit’s proportions would make the astronauts “look more spirited and majestic” and “make us Chinese look strong and beautiful when we step on the moon.”

Earlier this year, Chinese officials released the name of the spacecraft for the crewed lunar mission – with the spaceship dubbed Mengzhou, or Dream Vessel, the lander, Lanyue, or Embracing the Moon.

The mission is designed as part of a broader set of lunar ambitions, which include China’s plans to establish an international lunar research station at the moon’s south pole by 2040.