Millions of Venezuelans are expected to cast their ballots on Sunday, July 28, in what many see as the most consequential election in the country since strongman leader Nicolás Maduro came to power more than a decade ago.

The vote pits the authoritarian Maduro – who has overseen unprecedented levels of poverty and emigration from the country – against Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia – a quiet, bird-loving grandfather who has built a strong following despite being the opposition’s third choice after its two preferred candidates were barred from running.

But experts warn that the result of the vote may well be contested. Maduro has a habit for clinging to power, they point out: his government has long been accused of rigging votes and the 2018 election that returned Maduro to office was described as illegitimate by an alliance of 14 Latin American nations, Canada and the United States.

The populist and the former diplomat

Maduro, who took the mantle of the populist Chavismo movement after his predecessor Hugo Chavez’s death in 2013, is seeking his third consecutive six-year term in office. His last race was largely boycotted by the opposition. The Organization of American States called that vote a “farce,” noting that it was “held with a generalized lack of public freedoms, with outlawed candidates and parties and with electoral authorities lacking any credibility, subject to the executive power.”

At campaign events this year – usually rollicking, dance-filled affairs – Maduro has framed his opponents as “fascist” and “manipulable,” claiming that they would privatize the country’s healthcare and oil industry and “give away our wealth.”

Though under his watch, Venezuela has seen the rapid collapse of its democracy and nearly eight million of its people flee the country. Inflation has soared and food shortages spread as the country underwent “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century,” as the International Monetary Fund put it.

Gonzalez, a former diplomat, is standing for an opposition coalition known as the Democratic Unitary Platform. His priorities include taming inflation, currently running at 64% year on year, and restoring trust in the country’s institutions of power, like its judiciary, which is currently stacked with Maduro sympathizers. However, he has not given a roadmap on how he would convince an authoritarian government to voluntarily give up control and lead a democratic transition.

In recent weeks, his rallies, alongside Maria Corina Machado, the charismatic leader of the opposition coalition who was banned from running for president earlier this year (along with her fellow leader Corina Yoris), have drawn staggering crowd sizes, including parts of the population long devoted to Chavismo. The pair have promised to build a country that can welcome home the millions of Venezuelans who have left in droves in recent years out of economic desperation.

Several other candidates are also running, but they have minimal support and are viewed by the main opposition as government allies.

According to Oswaldo Ramírez, the managing director of ORC Consultores, the opposition has found support in “nearly every corner of the country.”

“The electoral energy is back in the streets of Venezuela,” he said. “Never in the years since this political era began has the opposition had a voting intention that favored it in such a broad way.”

Will the election be fair?

Twenty-five years after Chávez brought his socialist vision to the halls of power in Caracas, the election marks a rare opportunity for Venezuelans to remake the country – if Maduro is willing to relinquish control in a defeat. But analysts point to Maduro’s history of alleged election meddling in suggesting he is unlikely to go down quietly.

“This could be the last best shot for Venezuela for a long time to restore democracy,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The level of fraud that (the Maduro government) is going to necessitate is going to be so obvious to all that there’s no way they can move forward credibly with the election. They’re going to be caught with their hand in the cookie jar.”

The ruling party has already been interfering with the election for months. In January, Machado was barred from holding public office for 15 years by the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court. The US said the decision flew in the face of a 2023 pledge the Venezuelan government had made to hold free and fair elections. Gonzalez was made the candidate after Machado’s designated replacement Yoris was similarly blocked from running.

Maduro’s government has meanwhile claimed to have thwarted a string of dubious opposition-backed plots to sabotage public infrastructure and interfere with the election. Analysts see those as the seeds of a pretext that Maduro could use to postpone or cancel the election at the last minute.

Experts warn Maduro could also move to provoke a military crisis with neighboring Guyana after he and his supporters scaled up their threats to annex an oil-rich piece of that country’s land.

Some have speculated that Maduro could use the crisis as an excuse to suspend the election.

Maduro’s government has also been accused of trying to sow confusion ahead of election day, including by renaming some 6,000 schools, places that typically serve as polling stations. The government has also created significant impediments for the Venezuelans who left the country to vote, including widely unattainable passport and residency requirements, election experts said.

How will the vote play out?

There are more than 21 million registered voters in Venezuela, including about 17 million people currently living in the country.

A limited group of election observers, including a team from The Carter Center – a non-profit organization set up by former US President Jimmy Carter – will be on the ground to monitor the vote after Venezuelan authorities revoked an invitation in May for the European Union to send a delegation, citing the bloc’s sanctions on the country.

But the options for the opposition and the international community are limited if Maduro refuses to cede power, Berg, of CSIS, said. “The opposition can get out in the streets, they can mobilize, they can demand certain things, but if the regime gets in and they have the firepower behind them to repress as we’ve seen in other instances under Maduro, it could get very ugly,” he said.

If the opposition does clinch victory, a transition period of six months is likely to include an intense negotiation around amnesty for Maduro and members of his government, which analysts say he is certain to require ahead of any potential handover.

Maduro currently faces drug trafficking and corruption charges in the US and is under investigation for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court.

Machado has indicated in recent months that the opposition has expressed willingness to the Venezuelan government to establish a “serious negotiation with guarantees” for Maduro and his allies – should Maduro and his ruling Socialist United Party of Venezuela step aside in the face of defeat.

“We know the responsibility we have with history, and if there are feelings that animate this process, it is about reunification, coexistence, and justice, never about revenge and persecution,” Machado said earlier this month.

Messages of gratitude and support for US President Joe Biden poured in following his stunning announcement Sunday that he is exiting the 2024 presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the next Democratic nominee.

It was the second seismic moment in US politics in just over a week, following the assassination attempt against former president Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on July 13, which saw global leaders rally around him as the Republican nominee.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who met with Biden this month in Washington, said he respects the president’s decision and looks forward to working together for the remainder of his term.

“I know that, as he has done throughout his remarkable career, he will have made his decision based on what he believes is best for the American people,” Starmer wrote on X.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau thanked Biden for being a “true friend” to his country. “He’s a great man, and everything he does is guided by his love for his country,” he said on X.

In a news conference, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Biden deserves to be recognized for “once again not putting himself forward first, but giving his first consideration to being what he believes is in the interests of the United States of America, as he has done his whole public life.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Biden for his “unwavering support” in his country’s war against Russia, which the US has backed with weapons, military aid and diplomatic support, despite backlash from Republicans.

“Many strong decisions have been made in recent years and they will be remembered as bold steps taken by President Biden in response to challenging times,” Zelensky said on X. “We will always be thankful for President Biden’s leadership.”

In Israel, President Isaac Herzog described Biden as a “true ally of the Jewish people,” while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the US president’s “steadfast backing, especially during the war, has been invaluable,” both in posts to X.

Biden has been one of the biggest supporters of Israel’s war in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7 attacks. But he has increasingly clashed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over humanitarian aid and the mounting civilian death toll of the conflict.

There was no immediate word Sunday from Netanyahu, who is expected to visit Washington this week.

Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris called Biden “a proud American with an Irish soul,” and thanked him for his “global leadership” and “friendship.”

Other leaders commended Biden for making what must have been a tough decision to drop out of the race.

Speaking at a rally Sunday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said Biden made the “correct” decision and put his family and health first. He wished him “health and a long life.”

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X that Biden had made difficult decisions “thanks to which Poland, America and the world are safer, and democracy stronger.”

“I know you were driven by the same motivations when announcing your final decision. Probably the most difficult one,” Tusk said.

There was no official word from Chinese leader Xi Jinping as of Monday morning local time.

But “Biden dropping out of the election” was the top trending topic early Monday on Weibo, China’s X-like social platform, with five more related topics including discussions of Kamala Harris and Trump’s assassination attempt together accumulating more than 400 million views.

Some Chinese social media users excitedly speculated about the prospect of a woman becoming US president, while others said they believe Trump will win no matter the Democratic candidate.

“The shot was definitely a good deal for Trump!” one Weibo user wrote.

One user remarked, “that one shot didn’t kill Trump but dropped Biden,” while another described the political situation in the US as “a total mess.”

Kochi, India — Authorities in southern India’s Kerala state are taking preventive steps after the death of a 14-year-old boy from the Nipah virus and the identification of 60 people in the high-risk category, the state’s health minister said on Sunday.

Parts of Kerala are among those most at risk globally for outbreaks of the virus, a Reuters investigation showed last year. Nipah, which comes from fruit bats and animals such as pigs, can cause a lethal, brain-swelling fever in humans.

Nipah is classified as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization (WHO) because of its potential to trigger an epidemic. There is no vaccine to prevent infection and no treatment to cure it.

“The infected boy died on Sunday after a cardiac arrest,” Veena George, the state health minister told local TV reporters, speaking in the Malayalam language.

Earlier, in a statement on Saturday, she said as part of Nipah control, the government has issued orders to set up 25 committees to identify and isolate affected people.

Dr. Anoop Kumar, director of critical care medicine at Aster MIMS Hospital in Calicut, said one positive case of Nipah had been diagnosed in a school boy and people who had been in contact with him were being watched.

“There is a minimum chance of an outbreak of Nipah virus at this stage,” he said, adding that the situation would be monitored for the next seven to 10 days.

There are 214 people on the primary contact list of the boy, the statement said. Among them, 60 are in the high-risk category, it said, and isolation wards have been set up at health institutions to treat patients.

Family members of the affected patient were kept at a local hospital for observation, after a case of Nipah virus was confirmed in Malappuram, a town about 350 kilometers (about 220 miles) from Kerala’s capital Thiruvananthapuram, local media reports said. Other people who might be at risk were asked to isolate at home.

The state government said it is working to trace any affected people to contain the spread of the virus. Nipah has been linked to the deaths of dozens of people in Kerala since its first appearance in the state in 2018.

The virus was first identified 25 years ago in Malaysia and has led to outbreaks in Bangladesh, India and Singapore.

A US Navy fighter pilot has become the first American woman to score a victory in air-to-air combat, the service has revealed.

The female pilot, who was not named in the Navy release, was flying an F/A-18 Super Hornet off the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower as part of Strike Fighter Squadron 32, nicknamed the “Flying Swordsmen.”

The aerial victory came against a one-way Houthi attack drone, one of dozens the Yemen-based group has deployed against civilian merchant ships in the Red Sea and nearby waters in reaction to the destruction in Gaza during Israel’s war against Hamas, a release from Carrier Strike Group 2 said.

The squadron amassed more than 3,000 combat hours in flying almost 1,500 combat missions as part of operations Inherent Resolve and Prosperity Guardian, the former targeting ISIS and the latter stood up in December 2023 to respond to the Houthi-led attacks on international shipping.

The Swordsmen, one of four strike fighter squadrons that deployed on the Eisenhower, fired more than 20 air-to-air missiles against the Houthi drones during those missions, the Navy said.

“During one mission, VFA-32 became home to the first American female pilot to engage and kill an air-to-air contact,” it said.

The first air-to-air victory by a female pilot comes 30 years after Lt. Kara Hultgreen became the first carrier-based female fighter pilot in the Navy, flying the F-14 Tomcat off the USS Abraham Lincoln that year. Female aviators also joined the Eisenhower in 1994.

The Eisenhower-led carrier strike group returned to US bases on July 14 after a nine-month deployment, an exceptionally lengthy deployment for a carrier. Normal deployments last about six to eight months.

Cmdr. Jason Hoch, commanding officer of VFA-32, praised the squadron’s performance in “incredibly demanding conditions” during the deployment.

Besides the air-to-air encounters, the Swordsmen led two of seven strikes against Houthi ground targets in Yemen, destroying munitions and command and control facilities, the release said.

“We proved over and over again that the flexibility a carrier strike group brings to the fight is unmatched,” Hoch said.

Overall, Carrier Strike Group 2, which besides the Eisenhower included the guided missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea and the destroyers USS Mason and USS Gravely, hit more than 460 Houthi targets in Yemen, according to the Navy.

The group’s warships fired 155 standard missiles and 135 Tomahawk land-attack missiles during those strikes, while the strike group’s aircraft fired 60 air-to-air missiles and released 420 air-to-surface weapons, the Navy said.

The Houthis are an Iran-backed Shia rebel group that controls swathes of Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and a nation that has been ravaged by years of civil war.

Since Hamas’ attacks on October 7 and Israel’s subsequent ground and air offenses in Gaza, the Houthis say they have been seeking revenge against Israel for its military campaign by targeting Red Sea shipping as well as Israel itself with drones and missiles.

Both the United Kingdom and the United States have responded to the attacks on shipping by carrying out strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Over the weekend, Israel struck inside Yemen for the first time following a deadly drone attack launched by Houthi rebels on Tel Aviv.

Prince George has turned 11, and as per tradition his proud parents have released an official portrait to mark the occasion.

The young prince, who is second in line to the throne, is shown smiling and looking relaxed – though dressed smartly in a suit and shirt, accessorised with a friendship bracelet.

Taken by the Princess of Wales, the black and white image was published on Kensington Palace’s official social media channels.

It is captioned: “Wishing Prince George a very happy 11th birthday today!”

The latest photo follows the release of a family shot of George, his siblings and his father last month to mark Prince William’s 42nd birthday. Meanwhile, earlier this month, Kensington Palace released an image of George’s brother and sister, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis, shot from behind in England soccer kits after the Euros final against Spain.

The Prince and Princess of Wales have made it a tradition to release photos on landmark family occasions, like birthdays, Father’s Day, Mother’s Day and wedding anniversaries. Like this one, many of the pictures have been taken by the princess, who’s a keen amateur photographer.

Another recent pic of Charlotte, this time with George and her father, was tweeted by Taylor Swift on June 22. It showed the singer with the royals and her boyfriend, American football star Travis Kelce, backstage in London during her Eras tour. This may explain the significance in the official portrait of George’s friendship bracelet – a must-have accessory for all Swifties.

Kate stepped away from public duties in January, following what Kensington Palace said at the time was surgery for a non-cancerous abdominal condition. In March, amid speculation about her wellbeing, she revealed she had been diagnosed with cancer after the operation, and was undergoing treatment.

She gave an update on her health on June 14, saying she had made “good progress” in her recovery. But she said she expected her treatment to last for a few more months and was “not out of the woods yet.”

Veteran environmentalist Paul Watson was arrested in Greenland on Sunday and faces possible extradition to Japan allegedly over anti-whaling activities in the Antarctic years ago, his organization said in a statement.

The 73-year-old Canadian-American dual national was detained by police when his ship docked in the Greenland capital Nuuk to refuel, according to the Captain Paul Watson Foundation (CPWF) and Greenland police.

The ship John Paul DeJoria and a 25-member crew were en route from Dublin, Ireland to the North Pacific to intercept Japan’s newly launched $48 million factory whaling ship the Kangei Maru, CPWF said.

“We were immediately boarded by a SWAT team and … police who wasted no time in cuffing Paul Watson, our founder, and arresting him on a decades old Red Notice at the request of Japan,” Ship Operations Director Locky MacLean said in a video message onboard the John Paul DeJoria.

Police can be seen boarding the vessel and leading Watson away in handcuffs in the video.

In a statement, Greenland police said they arrested Watson upon his arrival in Nuuk due to a Japanese arrest warrant. He will be brought before a district court with a request to detain him while a decision is made on his possible extradition to Japan, police added.

His foundation believes the arrest “is connected to a previous Red Notice issued for Watson’s anti-whaling activities in the Antarctic.”

“This development comes as a surprise since the Foundation’s lawyers had reported that the Red Notice had been withdrawn. However, it appears that Japan had made the notice confidential to facilitate Paul’s travel for the purpose of making an arrest,” the statement continued.

CPWF said it “believes the reactivation of the Red Notice against Captain Watson is politically motivated, coinciding with the launch of the new factory ship.”

An early member of Greenpeace, Watson went on to found the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, an environmental group famous for tracking, exposing and occasionally ramming Japanese whalers. His attempts to disrupt Japanese whalers at sea gained him fame through Animal Planet’s “Whale Wars” TV show.

His activities have also previously landed him in legal trouble. In 2012, he was detained in Germany on an international arrest warrant issued by Costa Rica, which accused him of endangering a fishing vessel off the coast of Guatemala in 2002. He skipped bail but denied wrongdoing in that case.

In 2013, the Japan’s Institute of Cetacean Research and the Japanese firm Kyodo Senpaku Kaisha secured a US District Court injunction against Watson and Sea Shepherd, which prohibited him and his group from coming within 500 yards of the plaintiffs on the open sea.

Due to the injunction, Watson resigned as president and executive director of the conservation society in the United States and as president of the society in Australia.

In June, Kyodo Senpaku launched a brand-new whaling “mothership” – the Kangei Maru – a 370-foot, 9,300-ton vessel equipped with state-of-the-art drones able to travel a reported 100 kilometers (62 miles) to allow crews to quickly locate and kill whales.

The new ship replaces the Nisshin Maru, the infamous whaling factory vessel dubbed by activists as a “floating slaughterhouse” that was decommissioned in 2020 after more than 30 years of service, during which it frequently clashed with anti-whaling activists.

Japan is one of three countries, along with Norway and Iceland, that continues to hunt whales, and officials argue that the industry is an important part of its culture and history – and also provides food security.

The Kangei Maru boasts a slipway large enough to haul 85-foot whales from the sea that leads to an indoor flensing deck the size of two basketball courts.

There, workers will strip away the blubber before cutting up the whale flesh on enormous cutting boards, before vacuum-packing and storing the meat in 40 industrial freezers, ready for sale.

Commercial whaling was banned under a 1986 International Whaling Commission moratorium. But Japan has used a loophole to continue hunting whales legally for what it claims is scientific research.

In 2018, it announced its withdrawal from the IWC and resumed commercial whaling months later in defiance of international criticism.

“We are proud of catching whales and are very proud of this ship which will allow us to begin offshore mothership-style whaling this year,” Tokoro told reporters in June.