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British adolescents consume around two-thirds of their daily calories from ultra-processed foods (UPFs) that may increase the risk of poor health, according to new research.

Young people from white or disadvantaged backgrounds, and those living in the north of England, had the highest intake of calories from UPFs, results show.

There is growing concern that foods containing manufactured substances such as emulsifiers, preservatives, sweeteners and flavourings are a key driver of rising obesity, type-2 diabetes and cancer.

The findings strengthen the case for an overhaul of junk food marketing promised by the new Health Secretary Wes Streeting – made while Labour were in opposition.

Scientists at the universities of Cambridge and Bristol analysed food diaries kept by almost 3,000 adolescents in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey between 2008/09 and 2018/19.

On average 66% of their energy intake came from UPFs, though there was a small fall, from 68% to 63%, over the decade, according to results published in the European Journal of Nutrition.

But consumption varied significantly between certain groups.

In adolescents from deprived backgrounds UPFs accounted for 68% of energy intake, compared to 63% in those with a more privileged start to life.

White adolescents also consumed 67% of calories from UPFs, while for those in ethnically diverse communities it was just 59%.

While consumption reached 67% of energy intake in adolescents growing up in the north of England, it was just 64% in those in London and the South.

Lead author Dr Yanaina Chavez-Ugalde, from the Medical Research Council (MRC) Epidemiology Unit at the University of Cambridge, said: “Adolescents’ food patterns and practices are influenced by many factors, including their home environment, the marketing they are exposed to and the influence of their friends and peers.

“But adolescence is also an important time in our lives where behaviours begin to become ingrained.

“It’s clear from our findings that ultra-processed foods make up the majority of adolescents’ diets, and their consumption is at a much higher level than is ideal, given their potential negative health impacts.”

UPFs are controversial.

Some scientists have argued they are a distraction from the dietary advice on avoiding foods high in saturated fat, sugar and salt.

But others say UPFs are more than just junk foods.

They include products such as ready meals containing ingredients that wouldn’t be found in a kitchen at home.

Dr Esther van Sluijs, another of the researchers, said: “Ultra-processed foods offer convenient and often cheaper solutions to time – and income – poor families, but unfortunately many of these foods also offer poor nutritional value.

“This could be contributing to the inequalities in health we see emerging across childhood and adolescence.”

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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., had just completed a quasi-clandestine meeting with President Biden at Rehoboth Beach, Del., late Saturday afternoon.

An alarming number of House and Senate Democrats were growing increasingly uneasy with Mr. Biden as the prospective Democratic standard-bearer this fall. No one knew that Schumer made the pilgrimage to Rehoboth to huddle with the president – and have a frank conversation about what Democratic senators felt about him staying in the race. The number of Democrats who wanted him out likely increased after Biden lieutenants met with Democratic senators on Capitol Hill Thursday afternoon.

Schumer’s meeting with President Biden wasn’t entirely a surprise. After all, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., met with the president on Thursday night. Both men served as emissaries from their respective caucuses, carrying messages of concern from rank-and-file members about Mr. Biden forging ahead with his campaign.

The announcement that Schumer huddled with the president hit reporter in-boxes at 6:05 pm ET Saturday.

The message offered no details or specifics. But it didn’t need to. Just the fact that Schumer made a sojourn to communicate those messages from fellow Democrats to the President of the United States spoke volumes.

‘I sat with President Biden this afternoon in Delaware; we had a good meeting,’ read a statement from Schumer.

Such news would have rattled the political landscape.

But not on this Saturday night.

A gunman nearly assassinated former President Trump at 6:11 pm et, just five minutes after the Schumer statement.

Any conversation about President Biden and schisms inside the Democratic Party would wait.

The shooting bought Mr. Biden more time. Keep in mind that the debate where the president’s performance so rattled Democrats came on June 27. The shooting allowed President Biden to continue to hold the ball and drain the clock.

The political world was agog Saturday, watching to see if more Democrats would demand President Biden step aside. Mr. Biden conducted two conference calls Saturday afternoon. One with the House Progressive Caucus. The other with the House ‘New Dems’ Coalition. At that point, 19 Democrats had called on the president to stand down in his re-election bid. 13 were members of the New Dems. Fox is told that the call did little to buoy the confidence of skittish members. One source forecast that the number of Democrats calling for the president to bow out of the race may have spiked to 50 later that night or Sunday morning.

As we have written in this space before, late British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan opined that ‘events’ were the most important factors in politics.

Well, there was a seismic political event over the weekend. And that immediately arrested any effort by Democrats to potentially bounce the president from the race.

The inertia to sideline Mr. Biden which built for weeks suddenly froze.

And it helped President Biden stay put.

‘He’s dug in,’ said one senior House Democrat to Fox of the president. ‘We can’t have this circular firing squad.’

In fact, the ‘event’ of the Trump shooting highlighted the recent fractures in the party over Mr. Biden – while it actually brought Republicans closer together.

One senior House Democratic source told Fox that in recent years, ‘unity’ was the Democrats’ calling card. But the president’s poor debate in late June challenged that alliance.

‘That armor has been exposed,’ said one senior House Democratic aide. ‘And now Republicans are using their unity against us.’

That’s why Democrats are freaking out. Again.

Fox is told that Democrats know that the former President Trump’s survival and iconic photo after the shooting bolstered his standing with voters. Democrats were already down on their chances after the debate. Now they are even more worried. Especially as it pertains to House and Senate contests in battleground districts and states.

So conversations are again intensifying about President Biden’s political viability. It started with a letter from some Congressional Democrats asking the DNC to delay the virtual roll call on August 7. Schumer and Jeffries also spoke. They requested the DNC move back the nomination.

For Democrats, it’s probably a good thing that a week of the Republican convention in Milwaukee is shrouding the Democratic disarray. Most of the news cycle is dominated by the investigation into the shooting, the introduction of Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, as former President Trump’s running mate. Even discussion about Project 2025 is probably good cover for the Democrats right now. That’s because the internal schisms are real. And the party isn’t much further along from extracting President Biden from the ticket than it was a few weeks ago.

As Harold MacMillan would say this ‘event’ temporarily muted public calls to dump the president. But that’s all it did. It suppressed those conversations. However, the Democrats’ worry never really dissipated.

Some of that shroud may even continue when Democrats return to Capitol Hill next week. That’s because everyone will train so much focus on a scheduled hearing with Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle on Monday before the House Oversight Committee. That’s to say nothing of a hearing planned by the House Homeland Security Committee on Tuesday. Even a pre-scheduled hearing with FBI Director Christopher Wray on Wednesday.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will likely roll out his bipartisan task force to investigate the assassination attempt. And there will be all sorts of reactions from lawmakers as other details dribble out. Keep in mind this is the first time Congress has been back in Washington since the shooting.

Don’t forget that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a Joint Meeting of Congress on Wednesday. Surely the controversy over that won’t garner any attention.

Perhaps all the other ‘events’ help Democrats who want to remove President Biden from the ticket. Any such operation is messy at best. All the other things might shroud such extraordinary political gymnastics.

But that doesn’t mean those efforts aren’t going on behind the scenes. And because it involves the sitting President of the United States, all of this will eventually gurgle back to the top of the news cycle.

And that will be an event unto itself.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer reportedly told President Biden in a ‘blunt one-on-one conversation’ Saturday it would be best if he ‘bowed out of the race,’ according to an ABC report on X.

‘Chuck Schumer had a blunt one-on-one conversation with Biden Saturday afternoon in Rehoboth. Schumer forcefully made the case that it would be best if Biden bowed out of the race,’  ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl wrote. ‘Schumer’s office wouldn’t comment on the specifics of the conversation, telling me only, ‘Leader Schumer conveyed the views of his caucus.’’

The Senate majority leader’s office issued a similar response obtained by Fox News Digital on Wednesday, but waved off ABC’s report.

‘Unless ABC’s source is Senator Chuck Schumer or President Joe Biden the reporting is idle speculation,’ a spokesperson for Sen. Schumer said. ‘Leader Schumer conveyed the views of his caucus directly to President Biden on Saturday.’

The news comes as the New York Democrat pushed for the Democratic National Convention’s delay as questions persist about President Biden’s 2024 candidacy due to concerns over his mental acuity, according to multiple sources.

Schumer spoke with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and both men agreed to urge the DNC to delay a virtual roll call planned for this month to officially nominate Biden, three sources told Fox News Digital.

It was revealed Wednesday that the DNC was delaying its nomination plans to August after significant pushback from party members toward an initial plan to nominate Biden later this month.

‘We have confirmed with the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic National Convention that no virtual voting will begin before August 1,’ wrote DNC Rules Committee co-chairs Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., and veteran Democratic Party official Leah Daughtry in a letter obtained by Fox News Digital. 

Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., became the 20th congressional Democrat to call on Biden to step aside on Wednesday. ‘I believe it is time for him to pass the torch,’ Schiff said in a statement to Fox News Digital. 

His call came one day after a report claimed he told donors ‘I think if he is our nominee, I think we lose.’

Meanwhile, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed Wednesday evening that Biden had contracted COVID-19. The COVID diagnosis follows remarks from a day earlier in which Biden said a medical condition could lead to him dropping out of the race.

‘If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, the doctors came and said you’ve got this problem, that problem,’ Biden told BET’s Ed Gordon . ‘But I made a serious mistake in the whole debate and, look, when I originally ran, you might remember it, I said I was gonna be a transitional candidate. I thought that I would be able to move from this, to pass it on to somebody else. But I didn’t anticipate things getting so, so, so divided.’

Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser, Adam Shaw and Julia Johnson contributed to this report.

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Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance’s ‘America First’ foreign policy positions are taking the spotlight as he prepares to deliver his first major prime time speech at the Republican National Convention on Wednesday night.

Vance was announced as former President Trump’s running mate on Monday, and since, numerous politicians and media outlets, especially foreign ones, have begun sounding the alarm over what they describe as his ‘isolationist’ policies, warning a Trump-Vance presidency might go so far as to abandon Ukraine amid its war with Russia.

‘Trump’s choice of running mate raises fears in Ukraine and EU,’ one BBC headline read, with the piece going on to cite a German politician saying Vance is ‘more isolationist’ and ‘unpredictable’ than Trump.

The Washington Post wrote that Trump picked ‘a like-minded isolationist on foreign policy,’ and Politico wrote that Vance ‘spells ‘disaster’ for Europe and Ukraine.’

CNN’s Van Jones described Vance as ‘a horror on the world stage,’ warning ‘Ukrainians are now in deep trouble.’

When Vance talks about his ‘America First’ foreign policy beliefs, the focus often involves Ukraine as well as Israel and China.

He has been a vocal critic of the various foreign aid packages, which included assistance for Ukraine: ‘The problem in Ukraine … is that there’s no clear end point,’ he remarked on one occasion.

‘The United States has sent tens of billions worth of military aid to Ukraine with shockingly little accountability for where those resources have gone,’ he said in another instance.

Vance has largely made support for Israel amid its war with Hamas an exception to his opposition to foreign aid, and he has argued against ‘micromanaging’ their military operations. He’s also called for rooting out Hamas as a military organization and that the world should ’empower’ Israel to do it.

Vance’s opposition to foreign aid is driven largely by his view that it’s a distraction from China, which he describes as the ‘biggest threat’ currently facing the U.S.

The first-term Ohio senator’s speech is expected to fall fully in line with the night’s ‘Make America Strong Once Again’ theme, and it will, according to one source in his political orbit, be focused ‘heavily on his bio and incredible life story and how that ties into the America First agenda.’

His speech will also ‘connect his life experiences to the Trump policies, folding in his firsthand experience of a tough upbringing that shaped his views on a lot of the biggest issues he is passionate about,’ which include ‘trade, immigration, ending endless wars, fentanyl and drugs, and how inflation hurts the poor the most,’ another source told Fox.

Fox News’ Julia Johnson contributed to this report.

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MILWAUKEE – Five days after surviving an assassination attempt, former President Trump on Thursday will formally accept the GOP presidential nomination during the culminating moment of the 2024 Republican National Convention.

The shooting, at Trump’s rally Saturday in western Pennsylvania where one spectator was killed, along with the gunman, instantly impacted the tone and message of the convention, and altered the former president’s address.

The Trump campaign has said this week that the former president – following his brush with death – will use his speech to call for unity in the face of tragedy instead of criticizing his political adversaries.

Trump, in an interview Sunday with the Washington Examiner, said ‘honestly, it’s going to be a whole different speech now.’

‘It is a chance to bring the country together. I was given that chance,’ he emphasized.

And in an email to supporters on the eve of his address, Trump said ‘I will lay out my vision to UNITE OUR COUNTRY AND MAKE IT GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE!’

The push for party unity was on display during the first three days of the convention, with former GOP presidential rivals Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley – who battled Trump in a contentious primary season – delivered speeches from the podium in support of the former president.

Republicans are using the convention as a venue to reunite the party and energize delegates and activists ahead of the final stretch of the campaign in Trump’s 2024 election rematch with President Biden.

‘This is obviously an opportunity to bring the country together,’ Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita said earlier this week. ‘But let’s not forget we’re in the middle of a campaign, and we have to win that campaign.’

Trump is also expected to hit a major theme of his 2024 campaign – strength – and contrast it with what he argues is Biden’s weakness.

Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller, in an interview on Fox News’ ‘Jesse Watters Primetime,’ spotlighted the ‘strength and resilience from President Trump, especially only a few days after the assassination attempt.’

Miller also noted that the ‘tone’ and ‘approach’ of the former president’s speech ‘is going to be notably different.’ 

‘President Trump has spent much of the last several days dictating what he wants that speech to look like in real terms, saying ‘I want to say this and I want to go into the following,’’ Miller noted.

The Biden campaign isn’t buying the Republicans’ unity message.

Biden principal deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told reporters this week that Trump and Republicans ‘will always choose big, greedy, anti-union extremists over the working men and women of America.’

Trump’s address to the roughly 2,400 delegates and thousands of other attendees packed inside Milwaukee’s Fiserv Arena, and the millions of Americans watching the GOP convention, also comes less than two months since he was convicted of 34 felony counts in the first criminal trial of a former or current president in the nation’s history.

But weeks later, Biden severely stumbled with a disastrous debate performance against Trump, which has led to a rising chorus of calls from within the Democratic Party for the president to end his 2024 re-election bid and bow out of the race.

And now, in the wake of this past weekend’s assassination attempt, the presidential rematch has been further altered.

On the eve of the convention’s final day, Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, acknowledged that ‘as we meet tonight, we cannot forget that this evening could have been much different. Instead of a day of celebration, this could have been a day of heartache and mourning.’

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Republican senators confronted Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle at the Republican National Convention on Wednesday over the attempted assassination of former President Trump on Saturday, telling her that they owe the people and the president ‘answers.’

Video shows Sens. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and John Barrasso, R-Wyo., confronting Cheatle in Milwaukee. Sens. James Lankford, R-Okla., and Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., were also involved.

‘Stonewalling,’ Barrasso can be heard yelling at Cheatle as she moves through the convention center.

‘This was an assassination attempt, you owe the people answers, you owe President Trump answers,’ Blackburn said.

In a separate longer video, the senators can be seen questioning Cheatle. In response to their questions, she says that it isn’t an appropriate place to have the discussion, but says she is happy to answer questions, before leaving the suite. It is at that point she is yelled at by the lawmakers.

It comes amid furious criticism of the agency by Republicans and some Democrats over the circumstances surrounding the attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday. The shooter has been identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, and the FBI is investigating his specific motive.

Trump was shot in the ear, but one attendee was killed and two others injured. Lawmakers have questioned how the gunman was able to get so close and fire off multiple shots, as details have emerged of people seeing him climb up the building.

FBI Director Christopher Wray held member-wide briefings with both the House and Senate on Wednesday to discuss lawmakers’ questions and concerns. Barrasso told Fox News earlier that the meeting was a ‘100% cover-your-a—briefing.’

Cheatle has agreed to comply with a subpoena from House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer. She has called the shooting ‘unacceptable’ and ‘something that shouldn’t happen again.’

‘The buck stops with me,’ she told ABC News. ‘I am the director of the Secret Service, and I need to make sure that we are performing a review and that we are giving resources to our personnel as necessary.’

But she has come under criticism for comments she made talking about a ‘sloped roof’ that caused a safety issue.

‘That building in particular has a sloped roof, at its highest point. And so, there’s a safety factor that would be considered there that we wouldn’t want to put somebody up on a sloped roof. And so, the decision was made to secure the building, from inside,’ she said.

Her answers have so far failed to satisfy many Republican lawmakers, including Barrasso and Blackburn.

‘It is appalling that the Secret Service Director refused to answer our questions. This is one of the greatest security failures in the history of the agency. She can run but she cannot hide. She is a failed leader and she needs to immediately step down from her position,’ Blackburn said in a statement.

Fox News’ Liz Elkind and Aishah Hasnie contributed to this report.
 

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Kai Trump, the eldest grandchild of former President Donald Trump, spoke on day three of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where she shared the side of her grandpa that ‘people don’t often see.’

‘To me, he’s just a normal grandpa. He gives us candy and soda when our parents aren’t looking, he always wants to know how we’re doing in school,’ she said.

‘When I made the high honor roll, he printed it out to show his friends how proud he was of me,’ she added. ‘He calls me during the middle of the school day to ask how my golf game is going, and tells me all about his. But then I have to remind him that I’m in school and I’ll have to call him back later.’

Kai, 17, also reflected on the attempted assassination of her grandfather last Saturday at a rally in Pennsylvania, saying she was ‘shocked’ and found it to be ‘heartbreaking.’

‘On Saturday, I was shocked when I heard that he had been shot, and I just wanted to know if he was okay. It was heartbreaking that someone would do that to another person,’ she said.

Kai – who was welcomed to the stage by her father, Donald Trump Jr. – noted that ‘a lot of people have put my grandfather through hell,’ but that ‘he’s still standing.’

‘Grandpa, you are such an inspiration and I love you,’ she said. ‘The media makes my grandpa seem like a different person, but I know him for who he is. He’s very caring and loving. He truly wants the best for this country, and he will fight every single day to make America great again.’

‘Even when he’s going through all these court cases, he always asks me how I’m doing. He always encourages me to push myself to be the most successful person I can be. Obviously, he sets the bar pretty high, but who knows, maybe one day I’ll catch him,’ she added.

Kai, the daughter of Don Jr. and Vanessa Trump, now divorced, was recently a regaled guest of Dana White’s at the UFC 303 fight, which she attended opposite her dad. The Florida teen posed for photographs with White, the president of the UFC, former NFL superstar Aaron Rodgers and country music star Jelly Roll, among other A-listers.

Kai, born May 12, 2007, is an enthusiastic golfer. She is active on social media and regularly posts about her golf skills.

Kai also reflected during her speech on instances when she played golf with her grandfather, times when she had to remind him that she’s a ‘Trump, too.’

‘When we play golf together, if I’m not his team, he’ll try to get inside of my head. And he’s always surprised that I don’t let him get to me. But I have to remind him I’m a Trump, too,’ she said.

Last year, the Florida native started a YouTube channel. She kickstarted the outreach social media page with a video titled, ‘Get to know Kai Trump!’

‘It should overall be a fun channel,’ Kai said in the clip.

As Kai scampers around a golf course, her friend asks questions, and she gives viewers insight into some of her favorite things, which includes pumpkin spice lattes from Starbucks, proscuitto meat and ricotta cheese, and playing pickleball and tennis.

In March, Kai won the ladies’ club championship at the private Trump Golf Club in West Palm Beach. She has posted photographs and clips in the past playing with golf professional and PGA player Bryson DeChambeau.

Mixed into her fitness reels, Kai reminds social media users that she is an undoubted supporter of her grandpa.

Fox News’ Gabriele Regalbuto contributed to this report.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced on Monday as investors bet the unsuccessful assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump will lead to big gains for the Republican presidential candidate and the GOP at the polls in November.

Friendlier fiscal policies ahead were seen as further spurring a broadening out of the bull market that started to take shape last week. Small-cap shares and banks climbed on Monday.

The blue-chip Dow jumped 210.82 points, or 0.53%, to 40,211.72. The S&P 500 added 0.28% to 5,631.22. Both touched new intraday highs in the session, while the former also saw a record close. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% to 18,472.57.

“The good news is that former President Trump was not injured more than the ear, that he was not killed,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” “As a result, I think the market will continue on its momentum ways.”

The Republican National Convention commenced Monday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, with Trump leading President Joe Biden in national polls.

Humana and UnitedHealth Group each rose in the session. The insurers could benefit from fewer cost pressures coming from a Republican administration.

The Russell 2000 gained 1.8%, touching its highest level since 2022 and recording a fourth straight positive day. Goldman Sachs said a second Trump term could help small caps outperform, citing their strong record after his victory in 2016.

Goldman Sachs shares added 2.6% after posting earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) both added more than 2%.

Goldman is one of the more than 40 S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter earnings this week as the new season ramps up. This list also includes household names such as Bank of America, United Airlines and Netflix.

Beyond earnings, investors parsed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said the central bank wouldn’t wait until inflation was at its goal of 2% before lowering interest rates. He also said a hard landing scenario was unlikely for the economy.

“We are getting very close to the point of the Fed … seeing the data that they need to see to be comfortable cutting rates,” said Bill Merz, head of capital market research at U.S. Bank Asset Management. “That’s what is the first and foremost thing in the psyche of the market.”

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Zyn users, rejoice: Production is about to ramp up in the U.S.

Philip Morris International (PMI), Zyn’s parent company, announced Tuesday it would invest $600 million to build a new production facility in Aurora, Colorado, dedicated to manufacturing the popular nicotine pouches.

The move comes as Zyn has been subject to nationwide shortages as a result of its runaway success.

“PMI and its U.S. affiliates are accelerating their mission to move adults who smoke away from cigarettes in the U.S. by investing in new U.S. manufacturing capacity to meet the increasing demand for nicotine options that are scientifically substantiated as better alternatives,” said PMI Americas President and U.S. CEO Stacey Kennedy in a statement.

“We believe Colorado is likeminded in its commitment to innovation, economic opportunity and public health, and we’re eager to work with the state and its talented workforce as we expand our U.S. manufacturing presence.” 

The facility will be constructed over the course of two years, creating 500 direct jobs that pay an average annual salary of $90,000, with ongoing annual economic impact of $550 million and an additional 1,000 indirect jobs. PMI also estimates 1,000 construction jobs will be created as the factory is stood up.

Tuesday’s announcement comes on top of a previously stated plan to increase Zyn production at an existing facility in Kentucky to provide more immediate relief to address the shortage.

Amid its widespread adoption, Zyn has also begun to face questions about its safety. PMI has said its products have been scientifically supported as better alternatives to traditional cigarette use. The FDA’s official stance is that nicotine is addictive and can lead to continued use of tobacco, and that any tobacco or tobacco-alternative products like Zyn are illegal to sell to users under the age of 21.

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Traders are now 100% certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September.

There are now 93.3% odds that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate, its key rate, will be lowered by a quarter percentage point to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. And there are 6.7% odds that the rate will be a half percentage point lower in September, accounting for some traders believing the central bank will cut at its meeting at the end of July and again in September, says the tool. Taken together, you get the 100% odds.

The catalyst for the change in odds was the consumer price index update for June announced last week, which showed a 0.1% decrease from the prior month. That put the annual inflation rate at 3%, the lowest in three years. Odds that rates would be cut in September were about 70% a month ago.

The CME FedWatch Tool computes the probabilities based on trading in fed funds futures contracts at the exchange, where traders are placing their bets on the level of the effective fed funds rate in 30-day increments. Simply put, this is a reflection of where traders are putting their money. Actual real-life probability of rates remaining where they are today in September are not zero percent, but what this means is that no traders out there are willing to put actual money on the line to bet on that.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent hints have also cemented traders’ belief that the central bank will act by September. On Monday, Powell said the Fed wouldn’t wait for inflation to get all the way to its 2% target rate before it began cutting, because of the lag effects of tightening.

The Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, he said.

“What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that,” added Powell.

The Fed next decides on interest rates on July 31 and again on Sept 18. It doesn’t meet on rates in August.

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