Russian missiles killed 11 people overnight in strikes on Ukraine’s eastern city of Dobropillia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday, saying such attacks “prove that Russia’s goals are unchanged.”

The attacks come as the Ukrainian war is at a critical point, with the United States having halted military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv as part of efforts to pressure it into accepting a peace agreement. The move has left Ukraine even more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

On Friday, after threatening Russia with sanctions to force through a ceasefire, US President Donald Trump said that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin was “doing what anybody else would do” in taking advantage of the current battlefield dynamics.

In addition to those killed, the latest strikes injured more than 30 others, Zelensky said, including five children.

Authorities said that more people could be trapped under the rubble, with at least eight residential buildings in the area damaged in the attack.

The Ukrainian president described the strikes as “a vile and inhumane tactic of intimidation that Russians often use.”

“Therefore, it is crucial to continue to do everything to protect lives, strengthen our air defense, and increase sanctions against Russia,” Zelensky said, adding that “everything that helps Putin finance the war must break.”

Zelensky has said he will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia next week ahead of negotiations between Kyiv and Washington. After that, his team will stay in Saudi Arabia “to work with our American partners,” he added.

Local officials said on Saturday that over the past day, Russian attacks had killed at least 23 people and injured more than 50 in eastern and southern Ukraine.

In addition to those killed in Dobropillia, Russian attacks elsewhere in Donetsk killed nine others and wounded 13, according to local authorities.

Ukraine’s emergency service said that a drone attack in the eastern Kharkiv region also killed three people and injured seven, while five people were injured in attacks on the southern Kherson region, according to local officials.

Ukraine’s air force said it had shot down 79 out of 145 drones launched by Russia overnight, while 54 drones did not reach their target.

Russia also used at least three missiles in its attack, the air force said, adding that it shot down at least one of the projectiles.

The attacks came just days after a deadly Russian airstrike on Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Zelensky.

The Apostolic Palace in the Vatican is home to the Holy See’s Secretariat of State, the engine room of the Catholic Church’s central administration. Entering the offices on the third floor of the Renaissance palazzo, you walk past frescoes of some of the first maps of the world, a reminder that the church had a global vision and influence long before globalization came into fashion.

Now, with Pope Francis entering his fourth week in hospital, those working in the Apostolic Palace are grappling with the continuing uncertainty over the pope’s health. The same is true for everyone working in the Vatican.

The two highest-ranking secretariat officials are Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See’s Secretary of State, and Archbishop Edgar Peña Parra, the “sostituto,” or “substitute,” who acts as a papal chief of staff. They have seen Francis in hospital on at least two occasions. During normal times, they would individually have a scheduled weekly audience with the pope and remain in regular contact with him.

Parolin, a mild mannered, thoughtful prelate, is an experienced diplomat from northern Italy who leads engagement in geopolitics and has been instrumental in brokering the Holy See’s agreement with China. Some talk about him as a future pope and it was Parolin who led the first of the daily prayer sessions for Francis’ health in St. Peter’s Square.

Peña Parra, a church diplomat from Venezuela, coordinates the work of the Roman Curia, the church’s central administration. A decisive and resilient character, he underwent a fierce cross-examination last summer in London in a landmark legal case brought against the Vatican over a real estate deal dispute. The judge sided with the Vatican – and Peña Parra – on the key points.

It is these two officials who oversee much of the day-to-day church government as Francis remains hospitalized. The Roman Curia is made up of different departments – known as dicasteries – located in offices in and around Vatican City State and Rome. The departments, such as those for appointing bishops, continue to hold meetings and carry out their day-to-day tasks.

While the work continues, it does so at a slower pace. Heads of state coming to Rome to meet the pope stay away, as do groups of bishops travelling to the Eternal City. Major events which rely on the convening power of the papacy are put on hold. The prevailing mood in the Vatican is anxiety and a sense of uncertainty.

“(We are) very used to him suddenly ringing for an opinion or to share some observation that he’s made. So, in that sense, things have gone very quiet.”

The cardinal, who is from the United Kingdom, explained that “the work goes on” even though it is an “uncertain period” with raised levels of anxiety.

“But we are hopeful that the good Lord will help him along and restore his health,” he added. “And if not, we can at least back him up by our prayers in sustaining his health at a moment when he needs our support. He’s always willing… to help us and it’s a wonderful opportunity for us to help him when he’s in need.”

The 88-year-old pope is still signaling that he’s governing the church from the hospital. Even as he battles pneumonia in both lungs, Francis is signing off documents “from the Gemelli hospital,” appointing bishops and a NASA scientist as a member of the Pontifical Academy for Sciences and calling the Catholic parish in Gaza.

It is also the pope himself who asked the doctors and the Vatican communication apparatus to provide the detailed daily bulletins on his health. And, on Thursday night, people heard the pope’s voice for the first time since his hospitalization. In what must have taken a big effort, Francis, struggling to get his words out after weeks of respiratory issues, thanked the people in St. Peter’s Square for their prayers.

Each night cardinals and senior Vatican officials gather in St. Peter’s Square to pray for Francis. The mood has been quiet and somber. Anthony Ekpo, a Vatican official and author of “The Roman Curia: History, Theology, and Organization,” said that the curia’s job had become focused on “prayerful support for the pope” along with “continuing the task of assisting him in the work of governing the Universal Church.”

The pope’s hospitalization has changed the tenor of the Catholic Church’s jubilee year, a once-in-every-25-years event focused on pilgrimage and forgiveness. A jam-packed schedule of events with the pope had been planned, but in Francis’ absence, senior cardinals have been tasked with leading the celebrations.

All of this is creating a pre-conclave atmosphere. Vatican observers watch to see how each cardinal deputizing for the pope acts, and whether they are papabile (literally “pope-able,” or a potential candidate to be pope).

Interest in papal elections has become intensified by the popularity of the movie “Conclave,” which several senior church figures have watched.

Francis, who despite physical difficulties has always remained mentally alert, has ensured no figure exercises outsize influence in his absence.

He has two personal secretaries, both priests, assisting him up at the hospital but they remain out of the public eye. Throughout his pontificate, he has rotated secretaries, refused a personal spokesman and never allowed a figure to emerge as “deputy.”

In contrast, John Paul II’s long periods of ill-health and hospitalization created a power vacuum in Rome. As his health faltered, top officials in the Vatican took control of key decisions with his private secretary, now Cardinal Stanisław Dziwisz, becoming a powerful gatekeeper. A similar role was carried out for Benedict XVI by Archbishop Georg Gänswein.

No one knows how long Francis will remain in hospital and the prognosis of his complex condition remains “reserved,” according to Vatican sources.

Friends of the pope say he is determined to get out of hospital and return to the Casa Santa Marta, his residence since the 2013 conclave. The Santa Marta is also where the cardinals stay during a conclave. Francis’ recovery could take many weeks, and the prospect he might resign has been speculated upon.

From March 9 to 14, the leaders of the Roman Curia will embark on spiritual exercises for the season of Lent, which this year focuses on “the hope of eternal life.” During this period, believers seek to spiritually follow Christ into the wilderness of the desert for a time of prayer, fasting and almsgiving in preparation for Easter.

For the Vatican, the Lent of 2025 takes place in a desert of uncertainty as the pope’s health hangs in the balance. They are hoping – and praying – that a way ahead emerges.

The seismic shift of the past fortnight is hard to digest.

Ukraine and its allies hope, deeply, that the plank Kyiv has been slammed in the face with, is – to paraphrase US President Donald Trump’s presidential envoy to Ukraine – just to get its attention. That the White House is merely pausing military aid and intelligence sharing, demanding about half of the country’s mineral wealth to repay an alleged debt, and expecting a public apology from its president, as a negotiating ploy. That this is just tough talk ahead of a hard deal.

But a deeper change is apparent, and one that Europe has been reluctant to accept, and is scrambling to adjust to. The Trump administration sees itself not as an ally to Ukraine and its European backers, but as an intermediary between them and Moscow, hoping to rehabilitate Russia on the world stage. Trump has said he is “seriously considering” more sanctions on Moscow. Yet he has not applied them. So far, Russia has only tasted carrots and felt no sticks.

The pressure applied so far ahead of any deal is that of the contractor on its subcontractors – America on Ukraine and Europe – squeezing their terms to create a more attractive proposition for Russia. Hopes are high that a summit in Riyadh on Tuesday, between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team, will heal the Kyiv-Washington relationship.

This is the chasm that lies beneath Trump’s insistence that Zelensky “commit to peace.” Does Trump mean an indefinable vibe only he can determine? Does he mean the germs of a European peace plan, which so far involves a prisoner swap, a partial ceasefire at sea, in the air and on energy infrastructure, followed by a limited European peacekeeping force? (Russian officials have rejected much of this already). Or does he mean another version of peace that may be concocted between Moscow and Washington, without Europe or Ukraine at the table?

This last idea should be the most troubling for European security and Ukrainian sovereignty. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia, denied that a draft deal discussed in March 2022 in Istanbul – a rushed peace bid which fell apart in the early stages of the war due to the massacres in Irpin of Ukrainian civilians – would be the framework. But he called it a “departure point, at least.”

These proposed accords demanded that Ukraine relinquish its ambitions to join NATO, an aim which is now enshrined in the country’s constitution. The draft deal also demanded major cultural changes, the least of which was Russian being made an official language.

But above all, it tried to set limits on the armed forces Ukraine could retain which would have made them significantly smaller than Russia’s vast military. Its essence was capitulation. Not in terms of submitting to peace. But in removing Ukraine’s ability to convincingly defend itself in the event that Russia, as Ukraine says it has done more than 20 times in the last decade, violates a ceasefire and attacks again.

The pressure being laid onto Ukraine would suggest Tuesday’s meeting in Riyadh – already extremely high stakes after the Oval Office catastrophe just over a week ago – is not intended to be a simple, glad-handing moment of making up. We may learn the kind of peace Trump envisions, and how much of that mirrors Moscow’s ambitions.

Europe’s future security depends on how much “art of the deal” there is in this deal. Trump’s accustomed business world is one where he would seek to make a purchase or a contract attractive to the other side. Perhaps he might fire the head of the subcontractor if the other side didn’t like them (hence the loose talk of Zelensky’s fitness for office). He might screw down on their terms to improve margins (pausing military aid). He might flatter his prospective client (his reluctance to speak ill of Putin).

But the deal would ultimately involve the purchase of bricks and mortar, or their construction: a simple and predictable future course of actions or change in ownership of property, protected and cosseted by lawyers and courts – by the rule of law. If the other side broke the deal, Trump could sue. The precedents and courses of action were well-defined, and the rule of law on his side in ensuring the terms of the deal were kept.

Russia is not a massive fan of the rule of law. It negotiates normally to buy time to pursue its military goals. It seized the eastern Ukrainian town of Debaltseve literally during the first days of a ceasefire in 2015, negotiated following its limited invasion of Ukraine the previous year. Putin was raised in the KGB, lives on a diet of “maskirovka” (masking) and openly denied it was his troops who invaded Crimea in 2014, before laughingly accepting they were actually his a few years later. Were he a business, his credit rating would probably be distressed.

But Trump’s belief, his hunch, that Putin can be trusted and wants peace, is now guiding US policy, and rewriting America’s role in the largest war in Europe since the 1940s.

Signs of the damage this psychological blow has inflicted are already bubbling to the surface. Ukrainian forces are in peril in the Kursk region, and may lose this sliver of Russian land that was their only territorial card at the negotiating table. If they fall, the North Korean and Russian troops engaged there can then turn their attention to the rest of the eastern frontline where Moscow has made slow progress for months.

Ballistic missile and drone attacks have caused a horrific loss of civilian life this weekend, even after Trump threatened sanctions for Moscow “pounding” Ukraine, and may worsen as the pause in military aid reduces the US-supplied Patriots that Ukraine has depended on for air defense for its cities.

So far, the collapse in American support for Ukraine has mostly been confined to wild theater in foreign capitals. This week, we may learn details of the unclear peace Trump seeks. And then the grim toll of these remote, sanitary hotel meetings in suits will likely turn into dust and loss across Ukraine.

This follows a statement from the Vatican press office on Saturday that described “a good response to therapy” and a “gradual, slight improvement” since his episodes of acute respiratory failure on Monday.

The Vatican source said that this improvement was due to the “gas exchange” in the lungs and the oxygenation of the blood. However, the risk remains of another breathing crisis remains and the prognosis is still reserved, the source emphasized.

The pope continues to alternate between high flow oxygen therapy during the day and non-invasive ventilation at night, the Vatican press office said.

On Saturday morning, Francis prayed inside a chapel. In the afternoon, he rested and engaged in work activities, the office said, adding that Sunday’s Angelus prayer will again be released in written form.

Since Monday’s incident, the pope has remained in stable condition and received respiratory and motor physiotherapy. He released a pre-recorded audio message on Thursday thanking his supporters for their prayers.

Uncertainty has continued to swirl in the Vatican throughout Francis’ extended hospital stay.

North Korea unveiled for the first time a nuclear-powered submarine under construction, a weapons system that can pose a major security threat to South Korea and the US.

State media on Saturday released photos showing what it called “a nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine,” as it reported leader Kim Jong Un’s visits to major shipyards where warships are built.

The Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA, didn’t provide details on the submarine, but said Kim was briefed on its construction.

The naval vessel appears to be a 6,000-ton-class or 7,000-ton-class one which can carry about 10 missiles, said Moon Keun-sik, a South Korean submarine expert who teaches at Seoul’s Hanyang University. He said the use of the term “the strategic guided missiles” meant it would carry nuclear-capable weapons.

“It would be absolutely threatening to us and the US,” Moon said.

A nuclear-powered submarine was among a long wishlist of sophisticated weaponry that Kim vowed to introduce during a major political conference in 2021 to cope with what he called escalating US-led military threats. Other weapons were solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, spy satellites and multi-warhead missiles. North Korea has since performed a run of testing activities to acquire them.

North Korea obtaining a greater ability to fire missiles from underwater is a worrying development because it’s difficult for its rivals to detect such launches in advance.

Questions about how North Korea, a heavily sanctioned and impoverished country, could get resources and technology to build nuclear-powered submarines have surfaced.

Moon, the submarine expert, said North Korea may have received Russian technological assistance to build a nuclear reactor to be used in the submarine in return for supplying conventional weapons and troops to support Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine.

He also said North Korea could launch the submarine in one or two years to test its capability before its actual deployment.

North Korea has an estimated 70-90 diesel-powered submarines in one of the world’s largest fleets. However, they are mostly aging ones capable of launching only torpedoes and mines, not missiles.

In 2023, North Korea said it had launched what it called its first “tactical nuclear attack submarine,” but foreign experts doubted the North’s announcement and speculated it was likely a diesel-powered submarine disclosed in 2019. Moon said there has been no confirmation that it has been deployed.

North Korea has conducted a slew of underwater-launched ballistic missile tests since 2016, but all launches were made from the same 2,000-ton-class submarine which has a single launch tube.

Many experts call it a test platform, rather than an operational submarine in active service.

In recent days, North Korea has been dialing up its fiery rhetoric against the US and South Korea ahead of their upcoming annual military drills set to start Monday.

During his visits to the shipyards, Kim said North Korea aims to modernize water-surface and underwater warships simultaneously.

He stressed the need to make “the incomparably overwhelming warships fulfill their mission” to contain “the inveterate gunboat diplomacy of the hostile forces,” KCNA reported Saturday.

Clashes between government security forces and supporters of ousted former President Bashar al-Assad have killed at least 311 people in Syria since Thursday, according to a monitoring group that warns the actual death toll could be “much higher.”

Meanwhile, militants loyal to Assad have killed a further 147 people – 26 civilians and 121 security forces – SNHR’s director Fadel Abdul Ghani said.

“We expect the death toll to be much higher,” Ghani added.

The ongoing clashes are the worst outbreak of violence since Assad – a member of the minority Alawite sect – was toppled in December by Sunni Islamist militants who sought to reshape the country’s political and sectarian order.

Syria’s transitional president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, in a televised speech on Friday evening, vowed to pursue those responsible for killing the government’s security personnel. However, he also urged his security forces to “ensure no excessive or unjustified responses occur” following reports of the high number of civilian casualties.

The latest surge in violence highlights the challenges Syria’s new regime faces in appeasing disenfranchised groups, especially those that remain heavily armed.

Latakia and Tartous on the Mediterranean coast are areas where support among Syrian Alawites for Assad was strong. Alawites – some 10% of the population – were prominent in the Assad regime, and while many Alawites have surrendered their weapons since December, many others have not.

Assad, who fled to Russia in December, has not commented on the escalating clashes.

On Saturday, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) expressed extreme concern over reports of the high numbers of people being killed and injured in the two provinces.

It called for both sides to treat detainees “humanely and in a dignified manner,” and protect healthcare facilities and water and electricity infrastructure.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Friday said he “strongly condemns all violence in Syria and calls on the parties to protect civilians and cease hostilities.”

Guterres said he was “alarmed by the risk of escalating tensions among communities in Syria at a time when reconciliation and peaceful political transition should be the priority.”

Syria’s civil war began during the Arab Spring in 2011 as a peaceful uprising against Assad. The conflict killed more than 300,000 in the first decade of fighting, according to the United Nations, and has left the country deeply fractured.

As US President Donald Trump ratcheted up economic pressure on China over the past week, Beijing sent back its own message: Its rise won’t be interrupted.

A major political meeting taking place in the capital was the ideal backdrop for Beijing to respond. The “two sessions” gathering of China’s rubber-stamp legislature and its top political advisory body is where the government reveals its plans and sets the tone for the year ahead.

The top item on its priority list? Boosting consumer demand to ensure China doesn’t need to rely on exports to power its vast but slowing economy. And the next: driving forward leader Xi Jinping’s bid to transform the country into a technological superpower, by ramping up investment and enlisting the private sector.

Beijing is making these moves as it prepares for what could be a protracted economic showdown with the United States. Trump doubled additional tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on Tuesday and has threatened more to come – as well as tighter controls on American investment in China.

“We can prevail over any difficulty in pursuing development,” China’s No. 2 official Li Qiang told thousands of delegates seated in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People at the opening meeting of the National People’s Congress Wednesday. The “giant ship of China’s economy” will “sail steadily toward the future,” he said.

A foreign ministry spokesperson was more direct when asked about trade frictions on Tuesday: “If the US insists on waging a tariff war, trade war, or any other kind of war, China will fight till the end,” he told reporters.

And while Beijing’s priorities – and rhetoric – may echo those of years past, this time they are coming from a country that is starting to regain its swagger after being battered by its own Covid restrictions, a property sector crisis and by a tech war with the US.

“Confidence” has been an unofficial buzzword of the weeklong event, which ends Tuesday. It was used nearly a dozen times during a press conference held by China’s economic tsars on Thursday, splashed across state media coverage and included in a pointed reminder – that “confidence builds strength”– during the closing lines of Li’s nationally broadcast speech.

That optimism might be more aspiration than reality. Many in China are looking to the future with uncertainty. They’re more willing to save than spend, while young people are struggling to find jobs and feeling unsure whether their lives will be better than those of their parents.

But unlike last year, the country is entering 2025 buoyed by the market-moving successes of Chinese firms and technology. And while Trump’s return has Beijing concerned about economic risks, it’s also eyeing opportunity for its own rise.

Confidence boost

This mood isn’t just percolating in the halls of power.

On the streets of the capital, gleaming homegrown electric vehicles weave through traffic, including those from carmaker BYD, which now goes toe-to-toe with Elon Musk’s Tesla for global sales – a reminder of China’s successful push to become a leader in green tech.

Then there’s the box office record-smashing animation “Ne Zha 2” and the breakout success of privately owned Chinese AI firm DeepSeek. Its large language model shocked Silicon Valley and upended Western assumptions about the costs associated with AI.

In Beijing this week, “you can ask DeepSeek” has been a playful and proud punchline in casual conversation.

“Last year, people may have been impacted by the US narrative that China is declining, that China has peaked,” said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing. “We still have many difficulties. We still have many problems, of course, but it’s not that we’ve reached peak China.”

“China is developing quickly now and that’s attracted international attention, especially from the United States,” but that may not be a bad thing, said a medical graduate student surnamed Xia. “Trump’s increase on tariffs is competition … (and) if there’s no competition maybe China’s independent development is not sustainable.”

High stakes rivalry

But even as Chinese officials seek to project confidence, international observers say the economic stimulus measures announced this week show Beijing is girding itself for major challenges to come.

Premier Li alluded to that in his opening address. “The external environment is becoming more complex and severe, which may have a greater impact on the country’s trade, science and technology and other fields,” he said.

China doesn’t want to deal with that volatility while also grappling with a weak economy at home. That’s one reason why it’s trying to boost consumption and spur growth, setting an ambitious expansion target of “around 5%” this year. Beijing is also aware that trade frictions mean the economy needs to rely less on exports.

“It is likely that Beijing has thought through the scenarios of Trade War 2.0, but whatever happens, it is clear that China’s growth will have to rely more on domestic demand,” said Bert Hofman, a professor at the East Asian Institute at the National University Singapore and former World Bank country director for China, in a note.

Still, some analysts say Beijing’s initiatives are short on details and much less aggressive than needed to rev up the economy and boost consumer confidence.

“It adds up to a sense by the leadership that they want to refocus on growth and development, but still a desire to do only as much as necessary in terms of stimulus to get there,” said Michael Hirson, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

Xi may also be balancing this goal with another concern: a need to save some firepower to support the economy if China faces “a nasty four years dealing with Donald Trump,” he said.

Beijing also wants to direct resources toward the high-tech transformation of its economy and industries. That’s another key part of the government’s 2025 agenda – and a long-term objective of Xi, who unlike US presidents is not subject to term limits on his leadership.

Beijing is pushing for innovations in AI, robotics, 6G and quantum computing, announcing a state-backed fund to support tech innovation and even welcoming foreign enterprises – in a significant tone shift for Xi – to play a role.

China is still smarting from the first Trump administration’s campaign to keep its tech champion Huawei out of global mobile networks and from the Biden administration’s efforts to convince allies to join it in cutting Chinese access to advanced semiconductors.

Last month, Washington said it was considering expanding restrictions on US investment in sensitive technologies in China.

But Beijing this week has also touted its confidence in advancing no matter the barriers.

“Be it space science or chip making, unjustified external suppression has never stopped,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters Friday. “But where there is blockade, there is breakthrough; where there is suppression, there is innovation.”

“We are witnessing an ever-expanding horizon for China to become a science and technology powerhouse,” he said.

The Trump threat?

How much Trump’s policies will challenge China remains an open and urgent question for Beijing.

The US president has refrained so far from slapping Chinese imports with the blanket 60% or more tariffs that he had threatened on the campaign trail.

He’s been focused elsewhere, including on unleashing sweeping changes to US global leadership by decimating US foreign assistance, threatening to take control of other countries’ sovereign territory, and upending US alliances in Europe, while pulling closer to Russia at the expense of Ukraine.

There are potential risks for Beijing in that shake-up. For example, if a Washington-Moscow rapprochement pulls Xi away from Russian President Vladimir Putin, his closest ally, or if an American dial-down of security in Europe allows it to ramp up attention on Asia.

But Chinese diplomats have also been taking advantage of the changes to play up their country as a responsible and stable global leader, despite criticisms of Beijing’s own aggressive behavior in Asia.

When it comes to tariffs, observers say Beijing is trying to moderate its response, holding out for a potential meeting between Xi and Trump or perhaps even a deal that could avert an escalating trade war.

While China immediately retaliated against two sets of US tariffs this year, including with levies on US energy and key agricultural goods, it has remained measured in its reprisals.

The country’s deficit with the US means it will have less room to hit back if a trade war escalates, but Beijing is expected to be calculating other measures like export controls that it could use for leverage.

And the view from some parts is that even if tariffs cause the Chinese economy short-term pain, it will be the US which loses in the long run. China is still an indispensable part of global supply chains. It’s also better prepared to weather this trade war than the last one, because it’s sending goods to more markets globally now, data show.

“If you play (imposing tariffs) with a peer competitor, it actually would not work that well compared to if you’re doing this with small countries or medium powers,” said Zhou in Beijing, who is also the author of the forthcoming book “Should the World Fear China?”.

China, he said, wants cooperation not friction.

“But since the US is still the stronger side in this relationship, (it will) decide which kind of relationship this is … so China has to say ‘OK – if this has to be to be one of competition, then we must dare to fight,’” he said.

A vital, US-run monitoring system focused on spotting food crises before they turn into famines has gone dark after the Trump administration slashed foreign aid.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors drought, crop production, food prices and other indicators in order to forecast food insecurity in more than 30 countries.

Funded by USAID and managed by contractor Chemonics International, the project employs researchers in the United States and across the globe to provide eight-month projections of where food crises will emerge.

Now, its work to prevent hunger in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia, Afghanistan and many other nations has been stopped amid the Trump administration’s effort to dismantle the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

“These are the most acutely food insecure countries around the globe,” said Tanya Boudreau, the former manager of the project.

Amid the aid freeze, FEWS NET has no funding to pay staff in Washington or those working on the ground. The website is down. And its treasure trove of data that underpinned global analysis on food security – used by researchers around the world – has been pulled offline.

FEWS NET is considered the gold-standard in the sector, and it publishes more frequent updates than other global monitoring efforts. Those frequent reports and projections are key, experts say, because food crises evolve over time, meaning early interventions save lives and save money.

US Secretary of State Macro Rubio, now the acting administrator of USAID, has repeatedly said he has issued a blanket waiver for lifesaving programs, including food and medical aid.

“But very soon, if the food assistance does continue to flow, but FEWS NET is not there, then there isn’t any good mechanism, at least no internal mechanism within the US, to help determine where that assistance is most needed.”

“It serves the US government, but it also serves the rest of the humanitarian community too. So, its absence will be felt pretty much right away,” said Maxwell, a professor of food security at Tufts University and a member of the Famine Review Committee for the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system.

The IPC, another mechanism to monitor food insecurity, is a global coalition backed by UN agencies, NGOs and multiple governments, including the United States.

While the two systems’ functions have become more overlapping in recent years to some degree, a key difference is that the IPC analysis for specific countries is conducted on a volunteer basis, while FEWS NET has full-time staff to focus on early warning of future crises.

Maxwell said that while there are other famine monitoring mechanisms, FEWS NET was the system that “most regularly updates its assessments and its forecasts.”

‘Decades’ of data taken offline

FEWS NET was created following the 1984 famine in Ethiopia, which killed an estimated 400,000 to 1 million people – and caught the world off guard. President Ronald Reagan then challenged the US government to create a system to provide early warning and inform international relief efforts in an evidence-based way.

The system going dark means that “even other governments that were using our [US] data to try to provide food relief to their own people can’t even access this,” said Evan Thomas, a professor of environmental engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder.

“This is, at this point, quite petty – we’re not even spending money to host a website that has data on it, and now we’ve taken that down so that other people around the world can’t use information that can save lives,” Thomas said.

The team at the University of Colorado Boulder has built a model to forecast water demand in Kenya, which feeds some data into the FEWS NET project but also relies on FEWS NET data provided by other research teams.

The data is layered and complex. And scientists say pulling the data hosted by the US disrupts other research and famine-prevention work conducted by universities and governments across the globe.

“Imagine that that data is available to regions like Africa and has been utilized for years and years – decades – to help inform divisions that mitigate catastrophic impacts from weather and climate events, and you’re taking that away from the region,” Muthike said. He cautioned that it would take many years to build another monitoring service that could reach the same level.

“That basically means that we might be back to the era where people used to die because of famine, or because of serious floods,” Muthike added.

Ukraine’s presence in Russia’s Kursk region has deteriorated sharply, with the advance threatening Kyiv’s sole territorial bargaining counter at a crucial time in the war.

Military bloggers from both sides say Ukraine is on the back foot – reports say Russian forces used a gas pipeline to launch a surprise raid in one area. Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday said its forces had captured three more settlements.

Ukraine launched its shock incursion into Kursk in August, swiftly capturing territory in what was the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II.

As well as capturing land that could potentially be swapped for Russian-occupied territory, the campaign aimed to divert Moscow’s resources from the frontline east.

But since then, Ukraine has struggled to hold onto its territory in Kursk and faces a fundamentally transformed diplomatic picture, with US President Donald Trump piling pressure on Kyiv to agree peace by halting military aid and intelligence sharing.

Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers warn Kyiv’s hold on the region is more tenuous than ever, with Russian troops backed by North Korean forces launching incessant attacks.

The latest reports suggest Russia is targeting Sudzha, a town on the border, in an attempt to cut off a key logistical supply route to Ukraine’s forces.

Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian military blogger, said Russian forces had on Saturday entered Sudzha through a gas pipeline.

“The Russians used a gas pipeline to deploy an assault company undetected by drones and wedged themselves into our combat formations,” Butusov wrote. He added that the pipeline was now under reinforced surveillance and that Moscow’s troops there were being “eliminated.”

However, Butusov warned that Russian and North Korean troops in Kursk region are at a “significant advantage in strength” and are “attacking continuously.”

Some 12,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Kursk, and their arrival has bolstered Russia’s offensive operations inside its own borders. Should Russia retake all of Kursk it could potentially pour its manpower into eastern Ukraine.

An unofficial Russian military blogger gave a similar account in the town of Sudzha, claiming that around 100 Russian soldiers had infiltrated the settlement after sneaking in via the pipeline – a move which he said was made possible after Kyiv shut off Russian gas supplies to the European Union via Ukraine on January 1.

Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from several directions, according to Yuriy Kotenok, a Russian military blogger.

“Any movements of the enemy in this area are detected by our drones and the enemy’s personnel and equipment are being struck,” he wrote on Telegram.

Kotenok also claimed that there is “information” that Ukraine is going to withdraw from the Kursk region, “based on the current situation.”

Sternenko, a Ukrainian blogger, said the logistics situation was “already critical.”

Another difficulty was the “poor conditions of the roads,” Sternenko said. With spring bringing warmer temperatures, the ground will thaw, making roads muddier and even harder to traverse, he said. “All these circumstances are very favorable to the Russians,” he added.

Kyiv’s fear is that Russia’s gains could cut off supplies to Ukrainian troops in Kursk. In a major report last month, the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor, estimated that Ukraine has at most 30,000 troops stationed in the region.

The Kursk incursion was embarrassing for Moscow and raised questions over its ability to protect its own borders. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since repeatedly pledged his forces would regain full control of the region.

Kyiv has since lost about half of the territory it once occupied in Kursk.

In the face of Russia’s gains, some Ukrainian bloggers have suggested that the Kursk incursion may have exhausted its strategic value.

“I didn’t think I would ever say this. But maybe it’s time to ‘close the shop’ from the Kursk direction. It’s hard for our guys there,” said Serhii Flesh. “As a diversion of enemy resources, I think this operation has long since justified itself. As a political bargaining card, it is now questionable.”