Iran rushed to downplay the impact of Israel’s strikes on its territory this weekend, suggesting that it has taken an off-ramp to avoid a wider war, but the attack set a precedent the Islamic Republic has tried to avoid since its inception 40 years ago.

The adversaries had spent decades avoiding direct confrontation, instead choosing to exchange punches in a shadow war. Israel used clandestine operations to assassinate key Iranian figures and execute cyberattacks on vital facilities as Iran continued activating its Arab proxy militias to attack the Jewish state.

Saturday’s attack marked the first time Israel has acknowledged striking Iran, bringing the shadow war into the open and crossing a threshold that has led some in the Islamic Republic to question the country’s deterrence capabilities.

In April, after Iran attacked Israel in retaliation for what it said was an Israeli attack on its diplomatic building in the Syrian capital Damascus, US officials said Israel responded by attacking Iran just days later. Israel didn’t publicly acknowledge that attack.

The latest attack, however, was different. Israel openly said it conducted “precise strikes” on military targets in Iran.

“Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” Israel’s military spokesman Daniel Hagari said, touting achievements in the attack.

Shortly after the assault, Iran’s state media published images showing everyday life continuing as usual in its cities. Schools continued operating and Tehran’s streets were shown gridlocked with traffic. Hardline commentators mocked the attack on television and social media memes poked fun at the limited nature of the Israeli response.

Internal debate emerging

In his first comments after the attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opted to give a measured response, saying the strikes should “neither be exaggerated nor downplayed.”

But that initial wave of dismissal eventually dissipated, and an internal debate emerged over whether Iran should deliver a harsh response to prevent Israeli strikes from becoming normalized against a regime focused on its own survival.

“The sense is that if they do not respond they will normalize the idea that Israel can strike Tehran without getting a response,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC said, adding that there is a “fear if they don’t do something now Israel will start treating Iran as they did with Syria which means every once in a while, (Israelis will) strike.”

Iranian officials say some military sites sustained “minor damage” that was “swiftly repaired.” Five people were killed, including four army personnel, the Iranian government said.

Experts however say that the damage was more significant than Tehran has acknowledged.

“This (attack) was much more damaging than Iranian officials have led on, Iran’s air defenses and some of the radars that are crucial to identifying incoming missiles, it seems that those were destroyed in the first wave,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Tehran spent years building regional proxies designed to serve as a security umbrella and the first line of defense against Israel. These militias, stationed at Israel’s borders, also acted as a deterrent, discouraging Israel from directly striking Iran. The idea was that if Israel were to strike Iran, Tehran would retaliate by unleashing its militias against Israel.

The longstanding balance of power prevented a regional war – until Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza last year, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. That prompted a fierce Israeli onslaught that has destroyed the enclave and killed more than 42,000 Palestinians. The expansion of that conflict to southern Lebanon led to Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, Iran’s most formidable proxy, and decimated the organization’s commanding hierarchy.

The degrading of Iran’s strongest allied militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the weekend strikes on Iran, have fueled another internal debate in Iran: whether regional proxies are an effective deterrence.

“There are certainly voices within the political establishment who question the efficacy of the ‘forward defense’ doctrine, or the notion that Iran’s regional alliance network can provide a security umbrella. If that is changing, one natural aspect of the debate is what could take place to restore deterrence,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, the editor of Amwaj.media, a London-based news site focusing on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula.

The nuclear option

Since the Trump administration abandoned the nuclear agreement with Tehran in 2018, to put curbs on its nuclear program, the Islamic Republic has been gradually ramping up enrichment of uranium, a key ingredient of a nuclear bomb if purified to a high level. Its stockpiles have reached 60% purity, a short step away from weapons-grade, which is 90%.

Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that they have no intention of weaponizing the country’s nuclear program, while simultaneously using its potential as leverage in negotiations with the West.

As Israel continues disintegrating Iran’s deterrence capability, the minority voices in the Islamic Republic favoring the weaponization of its nuclear program are becoming stronger, Parsi said. “The trajectory and momentum are with those who are saying if Iran actually had a nuclear deterrence this would not be happening.”

Experts cast doubt over Iran’s ability to quickly build a nuclear weapon even if it can purify uranium to weapons grade. The process to build and test an atomic bomb may take years, leaving Iran vulnerable to Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities.

The nuclear bomb option is “much more public now” and has become “normalized in conversation,” but Israel has been able to derail Iran’s nuclear program in the past and may be able to do it again, Grajewski said.

Parsi said if the Israelis were to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, regardless of whether the Iranians can get a bomb quickly or not, Tehran will seek to build a nuclear weapon.

“Even the more hawkish American presidents have not favored taking military strikes because the most likely outcome is that, at some point, that will make Iran turn nuclear,” Parsi said.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Tuesday it had taken the Ukrainian town of Selydove, southeast of the key city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Russian forces have been advancing on Selydove in the last several weeks, according to frontline reports. It’s part of Russia’s ongoing assault and incremental territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.

Selydove was an important staging area for Ukraine’s defenses and a key foothold to prevent Russia’s advance toward Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on Russia’s claims of control.

“[Russia] continues to assault with very large troop numbers. They used reserves from the north of the frontline’s Pokrovsk section to increase pressure on Selydove,” 15th brigade national guard spokesman Vitaliy Milovidov said.

“At the same time, the enemy is not destroying the city’s infrastructure,” he added. “Most likely, they want to keep the town as a foothold for themselves in the future. Selydove is a large town where you can accommodate a large number of people and hide equipment.”

Video released by Russian state media TASS on Tuesday reportedly shows troops raising the Russian flag in Selydove.

Russia also continued aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities overnight into Tuesday.

At least nine Ukrainian people were killed and 46 injured across the country as Russian forces attacked the cities of Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih and the capital Kyiv. In the Odesa region, a 71-year-old man was killed by falling debris following an intercepted Russian missile strike launched by a fighter jet from the Black Sea.

In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, a Russian bomb destroyed much of the Derzhprom building, one of the most celebrated landmarks, which is considered a cultural monument due to its modernist architecture.

The teenager charged with the murder of three young girls in a July stabbing attack at a dance class in northwest England will face a terrorism charge, British prosecutors announced Tuesday.

The suspect Axel Rudakubana, who was 17 at the time of the attack but is now 18, will be charged with the production of the biological toxin ricin, and possession of information likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing to commit an act of terrorism, the United Kingdom’s Crown Prosecution Service said in a statement.

Rudakubana will appear at Westminster Magistrates Court via videolink on Wednesday, police added.

The new charges he faces in relation to the attack in the town of Southport, England, are in addition to three charges of murder, 10 charges of attempted murder and one charge of possession of a knife. A trial is expected to begin in January 2025.

Three young girls – Bebe King, 6, Elsie Dot Stancombe, 7, and 9-year-old Alice da Silva Aguiar – were stabbed to death while attending a Taylor Swift-themed class in Southport in July, in one of the worst assaults against children in the country in decades. Eight other children also suffered stab wounds in the attack.

The fresh charges came after local police conducted searches of the suspect’s home, Merseyside Chief Constable Chief Constable Serena Kennedy said on Tuesday.

“Searches of Axel Rudakubana’s home address resulted in an unknown substance being found – testing confirmed the substance was ricin,” Kennedy told reporters at a news conference.

“We have worked extensively with partners to establish that there was a low to very low risk to the public – and I want to make that reassurance clear today.”

She added: “When the ricin was discovered, all necessary steps were taken so we could be sure that no one was at risk. This was a multi-agency response. Expert advice, and guidance was received and adhered to throughout the investigation.”

Dr. Renu Bindra, a senior medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, told the news conference that the authority was brought in to conduct a public health risk assessment and that “there was no evidence that any victims, responders or members of the public were exposed to ricin either as part of the incident or afterwards.”

The risk assessment “judged that the risk to the community and to the wider public was low,” Bindra said.

The attack on July 29 has not been declared a terrorist incident, the police chief said.

“I recognise that the new charges may lead to speculation. The matter for which Axel Rudakubana has been charged with under the Terrorism Act does not require motive to be established. For a matter to be declared a terrorist incident, motivation would need to be established,” Kennedy explained.

In the days after the tragic incident, dozens of protests erupted in several locations around the country. Several of the demonstrations erupted into riots after an anti-immigrant misinformation campaign stoked outrage and far-right agitators targeted hotels housing asylum-seekers.

It was the worst disorder seen in the UK in more than a decade, with more than 1,000 people arrested and hundreds sentenced to jail.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

The photo shows a large crowd of more than 200 people, crouching low amid the rubble of Jabalya in northern Gaza. Mostly men, many are almost naked, some are elderly, some visibly wounded. There’s at least one child among them.

Their tired faces give a glimpse into their misery. The men at the front are anxiously staring straight ahead, while those toward the back stretch their necks to see what is going on.

The photo, taken in Jabalya on Friday, shows residents of the refugee camp who tried to leave the area after being forced by the Israeli military to evacuate amid its ongoing ground operation there.

According to Khalaf, the men in the crowd seen in the photograph were asked to come forward five at a time, to be screened by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) before being allowed to proceed to Gaza City, which has been designated by the Israeli military as a safe place.

“Some individuals were selected for detention while others were released. Most of us ended up in Gaza City. The situation was terrifying and deeply saddening as we witnessed elderly men and injured individuals in distress, with no one showing them compassion or mercy.”

The little girl seen in the photograph is Jouri Abu Ward. The three-and-a-half-year-old was riding her bike, trying to get to Gaza City, when she and her father were detained at the checkpoint.

Repeated strip-searches in Gaza

The IDF encircled Jabalya and launched a new ground operation there more than three weeks ago, cutting off most supplies and forcing people to leave amid heavy fighting. The IDF said it saw signs of Hamas rebuilding in the area, despite a year of heavy bombardment and two previous ground operations which the IDF had claimed were successful.

Due to security protocol, “clothes are not immediately returned to the detainees,” the IDF statement continued, adding that the clothes are returned as soon as it is “possible to do so”

The Geneva Conventions, a set of international laws that set out the rules of armed conflict, says that any detainees must be treated humanely. The rules explicitly prohibit acts that “outrage upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment.”

The International Red Cross says that intrusive searches, including strip searches of detainees “should be undertaken only if absolutely necessary” and not in front of other detainees.

The United Nations and other human rights organizations have criticized Israel’s military for detaining and stripping people during its military campaign in Gaza, accusing it of weaponizing the practice.

The UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel said last month that it found that “forced nudity, with the aim of degrading and humiliating victims in front of both soldiers and other detainees, was frequently used against male victims.”

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International also condemned Israel for what they said was a widespread practice.

In a July 2024 report about Israel’s treatment of detainees and prisoners, Amnesty International said that public forced nudity for long durations violates the prohibition of torture and other ill-treatment and amounts to sexual violence.

Human Rights Watch has also accused the Israeli government of allowing these kinds of practices. “Israeli authorities have for months turned a blind eye as members of their military published dehumanizing fully or seminude images and videos of Palestinians in their custody,” said Balkees Jarrah, acting Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.

Portions of southern and eastern Spain were hit by severe flash flooding on Tuesday, as some locations received up to 12 inches of rain in just a few hours.

Footage from the city of Valencia showed mud-colored water flooding through the streets, tearing down walls, and sweeping away parked cars.

Extreme rain warnings were in effect for some areas including around Valencia, according to Spain’s Meteorological Agency, AEMET. These warnings called for the potential of 200 mm (4 inches) of rain in less than 12 hours.

In some locations, the rainfall estimates were exceeded in even shorter periods of time. Chiva, which is east of Valencia, received 320 mm of rain in just over four hours, according to the European Severe Weather Database.

The Valencia area averages 77 mm (3.03 inches) for the entire month of October.

Flooding was also reported in and around Murcia and Malaga with over 100 mm (4 inches) of rain falling in some of these areas.

A strong upper level low pressure is moving northward into the region from Africa.  The strong system is bringing a significant amount of atmospheric instability to the region.  Extreme amounts of rainfall are also being enhanced with moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and upslope flow into higher terrain which acts to squeeze out additional moisture.

Rainfall warnings continue through Wednesday for portions of eastern and southern Spain, according to AEMET. The warnings north of Valencia are for rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm (4 inches) and rainfall rates of 30 mm per hour (1.18 inches per hour).

Areas of southwestern Spain will see the threat of heavy rain continue through the end of the week.

Montecarlo is a small city in the province of Misiones, Argentina, with just under 20,000 inhabitants. Those who walk through its neighborhoods can find cobblestone streets, but most of the roads are made of dirt. Anyone who wants to travel from this town to Posadas, the provincial capital, has to drive for about three hours.

María (who asked not to be identified by her real name to avoid being recognized in her city) says that in Montecarlo, all the neighbors know each other. She has four children: the oldest is 13 years old, and the youngest is just over a year old.

As she speaks, she breastfeeds her baby, and explains that for some time now, she has been in charge of all the household and childcare responsibilities: her husband lost his registered job in February and had to move to a nearby town where he does cleaning work in fields.

In July, María noticed a delay in her period despite using contraceptives. The situation at home was not easy, and supporting four children on an informal income made it difficult for her family to get through each month. She says that having another child was not an option. As soon as she suspected she might be pregnant, she went to her regular gynecologist, who had helped her deliver her children.

During the consultation, María asked about her options for accessing an abortion, but the doctor told her he didn’t perform such procedures and asked her to leave.

After this initial negative response, María got an appointment at the local public hospital. There, she also asked for help, but they couldn’t provide her with information about her alternatives. So, she sought of a third option: she traveled to Eldorado, a neighboring city to Montecarlo, where the public hospital has a family planning section.

There, they sat her down with other patients and explained to all of them how the abortion procedure worked. When some of them asked if the hospital would provide the medication, they were told there wasn’t enough, and they would be given a prescription to buy the abortion-inducing drug misoprostol privately.

“At that moment, I didn’t have 100,000 pesos (about 73 dollars at the parallel exchange rate in July). My husband had lost his registered job, so I went to the public hospital to get it for free,” she explains, adding that she tried to inquire about misoprostol with professionals at the public hospital in her area, but they also didn’t have free medication.

“When I asked, they replied: no, we don’t have any. I started crying, going back home, I was overwhelmed with despair because my husband had gone far away to work, and I was left alone. It felt like every door was closed to me. And I got home crying with my baby in my arms”, María recounts.

Since the start of his administration, the government of Argentina’s President Javier Milei halted the purchase of essential supplies for abortion access and has not delivered a single box of misoprostol, mifepristone, or manual vacuum aspiration cannulas, essential elements to guarantee abortion access for pregnant individuals, according to an information request filed by rights group Amnesty International.

Abortions were legalized in Argentina in 2021 in all cases up to 14 weeks of pregnancy. According to the legislation, a person who wants an abortion has the right to do so safely and free of charge.

However, exercising this right is becoming increasingly difficult in the country this past year, as confirmed by organizations dedicated to monitoring reproductive rights in Argentina, such as Amnesty International, the Latin American team of Justice and Gender, and the Safe Abortion Access Network, among others.

According to the report presented in May by the National Directorate of Sexual and Reproductive Health of Argentina’s Ministry of Health, the distribution of medications and equipment for manual vacuum aspiration had not been carried out until that month due to lack of stock, and the guarantee of these supplies for the remaining months would depend on the progress of the public tender, which at the time of the official response, was underway.

Searching for a workaround

As a last resort, María searched for alternatives online. This is how she came across Amnesty International, an organization that works for the promotion and defense of human rights. Through a form on their website, she shared the obstacles she faced in accessing an abortion in her province, and within a week, professionals from the NGO contacted her and guided her on how to obtain the medications for free to assert her right to a legal, safe, and free abortion.

María is one of the cases where Amnesty International had to intervene to ensure a safe abortion. The law states that individuals who wish to access this procedure must have their right guaranteed within no more than ten days. It took nearly a month for María to get an abortion.

According to the organization, complaints about barriers to accessing voluntary termination of pregnancy through the complaint form available on their website increased by 80% in the year up to August 2024 compared to the previous year.

The contrast with data from previous years is striking, Galkin explains. “While in 2023, nearly 150,000 treatments of the misoprostol and mifepristone combination were guaranteed or distributed nationwide, this year the provinces have not received stock, and we have been confirming this with public information requests to various provinces,” she detailed.

Galkin from Amnesty highlighted that provinces are not only reporting a lack of access to supplies for legal voluntary termination of pregnancy but also a shortage of contraceptive methods. “There is a lot of concern about the impact this will have on family planning,” she emphasized.

A temporary solution

According to Amnesty International and RedAAS, provincial governments are seeking alternatives to fill the gap left by the national government in reproductive health.

“Some provinces have immediately made direct purchases because, otherwise, women’s and pregnant individuals’ rights end up being violated,” explains Galkin.

Ramos adds: “Provinces are purchasing in quantities that probably won’t meet the entire demand, but there is a willingness from some provinces to take on the purchase of supplies.”

The problem with leaving it to each province, both specialists explain, is that it deepens inequalities across different regions of the country, as not all regions have the same resources.

Ramos asserts that the impact of this withdrawal by Milei’s government on public health policies could be twofold: “Women who end up not accessing abortion and who may resort to unsafe abortions or continue a forced pregnancy. Those are the options for a woman who wants an abortion and can’t get the procedure.”

Galkin concludes: “It has been demonstrated, in two years of implementation, how it has contributed to reducing, for example, the maternal mortality rate from abortion by 53% from 2020 to 2022. Legal voluntary termination of pregnancy is another health service that must be included in the mandatory medical program and must be available to the population because it is a public health issue.”