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With 10 days until Election Day, two new major national polls indicate Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are in a dead heat in the race to succeed President Biden in the White House.

With the clock quickly ticking, the two nominees and their running mates are fanning out across the key battleground states this weekend.

On the trail

Trump starts Saturday with a rally in Novi, Michigan, in suburban Detroit. Later in the day, he’ll campaign in another of the crucial swing states — Pennsylvania — as he holds a rally in State College, home to Penn State University.

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential nominee, starts his day in Atlanta before holding campaign events in Erie and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Top Trump surrogates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his long-shot White House run and endorsed Trump, and former Democratic presidential candidate and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who days ago switched from an independent to a Republican, will team up for Trump in swing state North Carolina. And Elon Musk, the Tesla and Space X magnate who’s the world’s richest person, stumps for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Harris on Saturday will team up with former first lady Michelle Obama, arguably the most popular Democrat in the country, at a get-out-the-vote rally in Kalamazoo, Michigan. The stop comes two days after the vice president shared the stage in suburban Atlanta with former President Obama.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, makes two stops in battleground Arizona Saturday, first in Window Rock and later in Phoenix.

In a sign of just how important a role Pennsylvania is playing with its 19 electoral votes up for grabs, first lady Jill Biden campaigns for Harris in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, while progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a two-time runner-up for the Democratic nomination, stumps for Harris in Erie.

On Sunday, Harris is scheduled to make multiple retail stops in Philadelphia. Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, the media capital of the world.

Trump’s campaign says the former president, who has long wanted to hold a rally in the legendary New York City venue, will frame his closing argument during the rally. And the campaign will hold a backstage fundraiser for major donors with top-tier access costing $924,600.

Poll position

It can’t get any closer than this.

Two major national polls conducted Sunday through Wednesday and released Friday indicate Harris and Trump in a dead heat.

Grabbing headlines first is a New York Times/Siena College survey indicating the Democratic Party and GOP presidential nominees are tied at 48%. 

That’s a switch from a previous poll, earlier this month, when Harris held a slight three-point edge.

A CNN survey had the candidates deadlocked at 47% among likely voters nationwide. Its previous poll from late September indicated the vice president had a razor-thin one-point margin.

There were warning signs in the two surveys for both candidates, however. 

Harris lost her favorability advantage over Trump in both polls.

After replacing President Biden atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticket in July, the vice president’s favorable ratings soared. But they’ve steadily eroded over the past month.

Another red flag for Harris are polls indicating her support among Black voters is below Biden’s levels in the 2020 election.

For Trump, his support among White voters is on par with his standing in the 2020 election, when he lost the White House to Biden.

And the former president still faces a healthy deficit to the vice president when it comes to being trustworthy and caring about people.

While national polls are closely watched, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote. It’s a battle for the states and their electoral votes.

And the latest surveys in the seven crucial battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump and will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 election, are mostly within the margin of error.

The latest Fox News national poll indicated Trump had a two-point edge, but Harris had a 6-point advantage among respondents questioned in all seven battleground states.

Cash dash

While there’s a margin of error in the polls, there is a clear frontrunner in the battle for campaign cash, another important indicator in presidential politics. And it’s Harris.

According to the latest figures the two major party presidential campaigns filed with the Federal Election Commission, Harris hauled in $97 million during the first half of October.

That far outpaced the $16 million the Trump campaign said it raised during the first half of this month.

Both campaigns use a number of affiliated fundraisings committees to raise money. And when those are included, Trump narrowed the gap, but trailed $176 million to $97 million during the first two weeks of this month.

The new filings also spotlight that the Harris campaign continues to vastly outspend the Trump campaign. 

During the first 16 days of October, the Democratic presidential nominee’s campaign outspent Trump $166 million to $99 million, with paid media the top expenditure for both campaigns.

However, Harris finished the reporting period with more cash in her coffers. As of Oct. 16, she had $119 million cash on hand, while Trump had $36 million. When joint fundraising committees are also included, Harris holds a $240 million to $168 million cash-on-hand advantage.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The term ‘October surprise’ – denoting an unexpected plot twist late in an election cycle that typically throws a wrench in prognostications – first entered the U.S. lexicon in 1980.

1980s

During that contest between Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, Reagan was cognizant that a sudden release of 52 hostages in Iran could boost his opponent’s campaign.

To that time, Carter’s term was marked by long-term economic ‘malaise,’ foreign policy stumbles like the hostage crisis and other concerns.

Reagan’s campaign manager, former SEC Chairman William Casey, warned that Carter might be planning such an ‘October surprise’ and urged allies in the intelligence community to alert them to any premonitions of a hostage release.

Ultimately, no ‘surprise’ ever occurred, and Iran’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei instead released the hostages after 444 days in captivity on the date Reagan was inaugurated in 1981, instead giving Republicans positive fodder.

As far as October surprises go, Reagan’s 1984 reelection campaign against former Vice President Fritz Mondale was quiet. The Republican went on to win a record 49 states, excluding Mondale’s Minnesota.

The same could be said for 1988, as Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis’ campaign appeared to flounder – particularly after he was mocked for wearing an oversized helmet while sitting on a tank in an ad.

If there had been a surprise, however, things may have been different far into the long-term, as Dukakis waxed during a 2008 interview that if he had ‘beaten the old man’ – then-Vice President George H.W. Bush – ‘we’d never heard of the kid, and we’d be in a lot better shape these days; so it’s all my fault.’

1990s

From 1988 to 2016 – except 2012 – a Clinton or a Bush had been a major party candidate in every cycle, and all but once the nominee.

In 1992, Iran returned to the campaign scene, as on Oct. 30, four days before the election, Reagan’s former Pentagon chief, Caspar Weinberger, was indicted for attempting to cover up Iran-Contra.

Bush the elder was vice president during that scandal, which surrounded allegations that the U.S. had funded Nicaraguan rebels known as ‘La Contrarrevolución’ with funds from arms sales to Tehran.

That December, Washington, D.C., federal Judge Thomas Hogan threw the case out on statute-of-limitations grounds. Bush later pardoned Weinberger.

After the 1992 October surprise, Bush was upset by Arkansas Democratic Gov. Bill Clinton. The candidacy of Texas billionaire businessman H. Ross Perot also contributed to Bush’s loss.

Following a relatively quiet 1996 cycle, the 2000 race between Bush the younger and then-Vice President Al Gore was marred by its own October surprise.

2000s

During the last week of the campaign, a report surfaced claiming that Bush had been arrested for DUI in Maine in 1976.

Bush ultimately confirmed he had been taken into custody after consuming beer at a Kennebunkport bar over Labor Day weekend that year, when he was 30 years old.

‘It’s an accurate story. I’m not proud of that… I admitted to the policeman I’d been drinking… I learned my lesson,’ Bush said at a Wisconsin rally.

Karl Rove, a top Bush aide who is now a Fox News contributor, suggested at the time that the October surprise may have cost his boss the popular vote in a handful of states.

Ultimately, Bush won – in one of the most closely-contested elections until the 2020 bout between former President Donald Trump and now-President Joe Biden.

Florida officials toiled over ‘hanging chads’ on paper ballots, while Republican consultant Roger Stone and then-Rep. John Sweeney, R-N.Y. – whom Bush later dubbed ‘Congressman Kick-Ass’ – were credited with staging the ‘Brooks Brothers Riot’ of dapper demonstrators at Miami-Dade’s election office.

In 2004, just before the election, Usama bin Laden was seen on video taking responsibility for 9/11 and calling Bush a dictator for his use of the Patriot Act. Then-Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., cited the video after his loss for bringing terrorism to the fore once again.

Wall Street powerhouse Lehman Brothers imploded in September 2008, and a recession of the likes not seen since 1929 enveloped the country, leaving Bush – and, by extension, Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona – with the blame. Disgraced CEO Dick Fuld was dragged before Congress.

And it was the charisma of then-Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., combined with slogans like ‘Hope,’ ‘Change’ and ‘Yes We Can’ that galvanized the youth vote. This surge of enthusiasm, set against the backdrop of the financial crisis – a major October surprise – is what undermined Republicans’ chances.

2010s

During the 2012 cycle, it was a Republican who was blamed for an October surprise that doomed the GOP nominee.

After Hurricane Sandy devastated the northeast, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie publicly gushed about Obama’s efforts during the recovery and was criticized for the warm reception he gave Obama, which purportedly translated into a last-minute boost for the incumbent.

Christie has long denied ever hugging Obama, as critics have claimed, calling it the ‘old, ‘nobody ever saw it because it didn’t happen’ hug’.’

At a 2016 town hall in Sussex, N.J., Christie questioned critics who still bring up the alleged chumminess, asking, ‘what would you have me do, exactly . . . say, ‘No, I’m for Mitt Romney, I don’t want you to come’ – or would you rather me wear my Romney sweatshirt while I was walking around with him – this is ridiculous stuff.’

In 2016, after originally declining to recommend that the Department of Justice prosecute Hillary Clinton that July for mishandling classified materials, FBI Director James Comey announced just days before the election that he was reexamining the Democratic nominee’s email saga.

Emails pertinent to the probe were suddenly found on New York Rep. Anthony Weiner’s computer. At the time, Weiner, a Democrat, was the estranged husband of Clinton confidante Huma Abedin.

Clinton narrowly lost several swing states and Trump commanded an upset to become the first non-politician or non-military officer elected president.

That victory came despite another October surprise that year – as a tape of Trump bragging to TV host and presidential cousin Billy Bush about being able to ‘grab’ women by their genitalia undeterred, sent shockwaves through the media.

2020s

A major October surprise occurred in 2020, when the New York Post broke the story surrounding the mixture of obscene imagery and documentation of foreign business dealings found on Hunter Biden’s laptop – after it was left at a Wilmington repair shop.

Social media organizations allegedly sought to stifle the ‘surprise,’ and a consortium of intelligence officials attested in a heavily critiqued letter that the report was Russian propaganda. 

The story was later confirmed to be accurate, though it came months after Joe Biden had upset Trump.

While not in October, Democrats faced a political earthquake in July when Joe Biden – following a widely mocked debate performance – decided against continuing his reelection bid, and the party chose Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place.

With an already contentious election cycle in 2024, it remains to be seen whether a major October surprise will reveal itself, or whether Americans will look back on an event that has already happened this month and deem it the quadrennial shocker.

Fox News’ Leonard Balducci contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Former British nurse and convicted child serial killer Lucy Letby on Thursday lost an attempt to appeal against her conviction for trying to murder a newborn baby, amid questions over the fairness of her trials.

Letby, 34, was found guilty of murdering seven children and attempting to murder seven more between June 2015 and June 2016 while working in the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital in Chester, northern England, making her Britain’s worst serial child killer of modern times.

She was convicted of an eighth count of attempted murder at a retrial earlier this year, after the original jury was unable to reach a verdict on a charge that Letby tried to kill a baby girl by removing her breathing tube.

Prosecutor Nick Johnson told Manchester Crown Court that, little more than an hour after the child was born, a senior doctor found the baby’s breathing tube dislodged and Letby standing there “doing nothing.”

Letby’s lawyer Benjamin Myers told London’s Court of Appeal on Thursday that Letby “maintains and has maintained she is not guilty of the offenses.”

He argued that the retrial was an abuse of process as Letby could not have a fair trial because of extensive coverage of her convictions, which featured “intense hostility towards her” and comments made by the Crown Prosecution Service and police.

“There was no way in which the jury in trial two were going to have the publicity and the comment and the hostility ameliorated,” Myers said.

Judge William Davis refused Letby’s application for leave to appeal against the conviction from her retrial.

Letby attended the hearing by videolink from prison and sat impassively as the judge stated the court’s reasons for refusing her application.

“The outcome of the first trial undoubtedly led to an unusually large amount of publicity and online debate,” Davis said. “That is because, on its face, the case was extraordinary.”

Letby’s attempt to overturn her convictions from the first trial was refused in May. She can now only challenge those convictions if the Criminal Cases Review Commission refer those cases back to the Court of Appeal.

Since her trials, Letby’s conviction has come under a spotlight, following criticism by some experts of medical and statistical evidence presented by the prosecution.

Some media have questioned whether she might be the victim of a miscarriage of justice, while a public inquiry into her crimes continues.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A group of North Korean soldiers have been spotted in Russia’s Kursk region, an area of ongoing military operations, Ukraine’s military intelligence service announced Thursday.

After receiving training in Russia’s far east, some troops have now made their way to the western Russia region where Ukraine has maintained a strong foothold since launching an incursion in August.

In a post on its official Telegram account, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said the troops had been spotted in Kursk on Wednesday.

The intelligence service said the roughly 12,000 North Korean soldiers that have been deployed to Russia are receiving training at five military training grounds in the east.

Thursday’s 12,000 figure is larger than had been previously been flagged by US officials. On Wednesday, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers arrived in eastern Russia this month.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Ukraine had intelligence about Russia “training two military units from North Korea” involving perhaps “two brigades of 6,000 people each.”

Ukrainian intelligence services said Thursday that “several weeks” have been allocated for the coordination of the North Korean troops which includes 500 officers and three generals.

Moscow ‘in contact’ with Pyongyang

Ukraine had repeatedly warned that warming relations between Russia and North Korea could see Pyeongyang taking a more direct role in the war in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did nothing to dispel this suspicion when questioned by journalists at the BRICS summit on Thursday, saying Russia is currently “in contact” with North Korea.

“We have never doubted that the North Korean leadership takes our agreements seriously,” Putin told the press conference in Kazan, Russia.

“But what and how we will do is our business,” he added.

Putin’s Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has been tasked with overseeing the troop’s training, the Ukrainian intelligence service said.

The soldiers are thought to have received ammunition, bedding, winter clothing and footwear, and hygiene products from the Russian authorities, the Ukrainian intelligence service reported.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Violence is intensifying in Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, this week, which saw a United Nations helicopter hit by gunfire and two gangs apparently target US embassy vehicles.

The evacuation of “non-emergency” diplomatic workers will be rolled out in the “coming days,” the second source said.

Also on Thursday, a humanitarian helicopter used by the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) in the country was hit by heavy gunfire as it was airborne over Port-au-Prince, causing the agency to cancel Friday’s scheduled flights.

“Humanitarian air transport is essential to delivering a response across Haiti,” the WFP statement also said. Many roads in the Caribbean nation are too dangerous to use for overland transport due to gang attacks and roadblocks.

This isn’t the first time a helicopter used by the WFP is hit by gunfire. Last July, an apparent stray bullet hit a helicopter while parked at the Toussaint Louverture airport in Port-au-Prince.

Gang violence in Haiti has spiraled in recent years, with attacks becoming more brazen and violent. Gangs in Haiti control much of the capital, and the ongoing violence has left nearly 700,000 Haitians homeless in recent years. The UN reports that 3,661 people have been killed since January this year.

Earlier this month, three infants were among the scores of people brutally killed in a gang attack in central Haiti. Members of the “Gran Grif” gang used automatic rifles to kill at least 70 people in an attack that displaced 6,000 people, said a UN agency at the time.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The thousands of North Korean troops US intelligence says arrived in Russia for training this month have sparked concern they will be deployed to bolster Moscow’s battlefront in Ukraine.

They’ve also turned up alarm from the United States and its allies that growing coordination between anti-West countries is creating a much broader, urgent security threat – one where partnerships of convenience are evolving into more outright military ties.

Hundreds of Iranian drones have also been part of Moscow’s onslaught on Ukraine, and last month the US said Tehran had sent the warring country short-range ballistic missiles as well.

China, meanwhile, has been accused of powering Russia’s war machine with substantial amounts of “dual use” goods like microelectronics and machine tools, which can be used to make weapons. Last week, the US for the first time penalized two Chinese firms for supplying complete weapons systems. All three countries have denied they are providing such support.

Taking stock of the emerging cooperation, a Congress-backed group that evaluates US defense strategy dubbed Russia, China, Iran and North Korea this summer an “axis of growing malign partnerships.”

The fear is that a shared animosity toward the US is increasingly driving these countries to work together – amplifying the threat that any one of them alone poses to Washington or its allies, not just in one region but perhaps in multiple parts of the world at the same time.

“If (North Korea) is a co-belligerent, their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue, and it will have impacts not only on in Europe — it will also impact things in the Indo Pacific as well,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday in the first US confirmation of North Korean troops in Russia.

‘Driven by survival strategy’

Decades after the Axis powers of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan and the strident anti-West coalition of the Cold War era – and years since George W. Bush’s dubbed US enemies Iran, Iraq and North Korea an “axis of evil” – there’s a perception that a new, dangerous alignment is on the rise, with Putin’s war as its catalyst.

Such an alignment would bring together two long-time nuclear-armed powers, a state believed to have assembled a host of illegal nuclear warheads in North Korea, and Iran, which the US says could likely assembly such a weapon in a matter of weeks.

North Korea’s military partnership with Russia now links the grinding, hot conflict in Europe to an especially tense period in the cold conflict on the Korean Peninsula, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has elevated his threats toward the South, with which it remains technically at war.

Following the intelligence on the North Korean deployment to Russia, South Korea said it could consider supplying weapons to Ukraine, where the US ally has yet to directly provide arms.

For North Korea, where leader Kim has called to ramp up his country’s illicit nuclear weapons program, there’s been little to lose in sending what’s believed to be millions of rounds of artillery, short-range ballistic missiles and, more recently, troops to Russia.

In exchange, cash-strapped and internationally isolated Pyongyang has likely received food and other necessities – and potentially support developing its space capacities, which could also help its sanctioned missile program.

The importance of drone warfare in Ukraine has also seen Russia look to Iran for procurement – deepening a security alignment that dates to 2015 and the war in Syria, when both backed the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

And for Tehran – weighted by hefty Western sanctions and embroiled in the expanding Middle Eastern conflict with US-backed Israel – supplying Russia weapons is thought to potentially boost its defense sector, while its ties with Beijing and Moscow provide it with diplomatic cover.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who declared a “no limits” partnership with Putin weeks before his invasion, has claimed neutrality in the conflict and has largely steered Chinese firms away from supplying direct lethal aid.

Yet it has filled wide gaps in Russian demand of other goods, including products deemed by the US and others to be dual use, and benefited from Russia’s discounted energy. Beijing defends its “normal trade” with Russia. China has also continued to expand joint military drills and diplomatic ties with a country it sees a key partner in pushing back against the West in international fora.

But even as these four countries have their own motivations to cooperate with one another individually, especially within the context of Russia’s war, clear limits exist in any broader coordination, mutual trust, and even interest in working together – at least for now, observers say.

“This is a set of bilateral relationships driven by each country’s survival strategy, or what’s on the menu for geopolitics and what’s the crisis of the day or the decade that they are dealing with,” said Alex Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

“These are authoritative regimes … and they all see the US as a common adversary. That’s the glue that keeps them together, but whether we can talk about a degree of coordination (between all four) … I think we are very far from that,” he said.

That makes the pressing question whether these current alignments can endure beyond the war in Ukraine and evolve into outright coordination between all four nations.

The China factor

A key factor in how any further alignment develops is China, observers say – by far the most powerful player in the grouping, the lead trade partner for Russia, North Korea and Iran, and the nation viewed by the US as its primary adversary.

As its divisions with Washington have deepened, Beijing has ramped up efforts to challenge US global leadership and shape an international order into one that favors China and other autocracies.

Russia’s role in that effort was on show this week in its southwestern city of Kazan, where Xi and Putin hailed their commitment to building a “fairer” world on the sidelines of a summit of the BRICS group whose membership they’d jointly worked to grow this year.

The two have brought Iran into that diplomatic fold and also largely sided with Tehran in the conflict in the Middle East, where its proxies are fighting Israel. China, Russia and Iran have also held four joint naval drills since 2019, and China is by far Iran’s largest energy buyer.

At the same time, heavily sanctioned Iran is no longer the “favorite state for China’s Middle East policy” as Beijing builds relations with wealthier Gulf countries, according to Jean-Loup Samaan, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.

Beijing also carefully manages its relationship with North Korea – which is almost wholly economically and diplomatically dependent on China. Chinese leaders are widely seen as being wary of the burgeoning Kim-Putin alignment and the potential for an empowered North Korea to cause trouble and draw more US focus to the region.

When asked about the movement of North Korean troops into Russia at a regular press briefing Thursday, China’s foreign ministry said it “does not have information on that.”

While it practices its own aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan, the democratic island Beijing claims, China may not want to appear to lean too hard into these partnerships and hinder efforts to portray itself as a responsible, global leader.

“Russia, North Korea, Iran is the type of grouping that China least wants to openly associate itself with,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

China has been “desperate to clarify that it is not a trilateral alliance with Russia and North Korea,” and it also “has more options than these countries … and prefers working with larger number of countries” to compete with the West, he said.

‘A real risk’

Viewed from the West, however, China’s refusal to cut off economic lifelines to a UN sanctions-defiant North Korea and a Russia that has threatened the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is often seen as an open endorsement of these regimes.

In July, the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, an independent group tasked by Congress with evaluating US defense strategy, said China and Russia’s partnership had “deepened and broadened” to include a military and economic partnership with Iran and North Korea.

“This new alignment of nations opposed to US interests creates a real risk, if not likelihood, that conflict anywhere could become a multi-theater or global war,” it said.

China has repeatedly insisted that its relationship with Russia is one of “non-alliance, non-confrontation and not targeting any third party.”

NATO has also in recent years moved to ramp up relations with US allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific, with a meeting of defense ministers last week joined for the first time by Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

In the short term, Russia’s weapons partnerships also open the door for Iran and North Korea to potentially obtain and produce Moscow’s sensitive weapons technologies and even ship them around the world, according to Carnegie’s Zhao.

The current dynamics also raise the risk that future conflicts – including one where China is at the center and not Russia – see coordination between the four, some analysts assess.

For example, in a potential conflict in the South China Sea or over Taiwan, there is debate over whether Beijing would want to see North Korea or Russia play a role in creating a distraction in North Asia.

But some experts also warn against seeing this “axis” or such a future as a foregone conclusion – as these relationships remain opportunistic, rather than based on deep ideological alignment or trust.

For one, it’s possible that “some more moderate behavior” could be incentivized on the part of China, which could dial down this potential, according to Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

But as the optics stand today – “the risk is sufficiently present” that the US could face a future conflagration involves multiple of these countries, he said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Tropical Cyclone Dana made landfall along the northern coast of Odisha state as the equivalent of a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin with winds of 110 kilometers per hour (70 mph), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The storm was located about 250 kilometers (155 miles) southwest of Kolkata, moving north-northwest at 12 kph (8 mph), as of 9 a.m. local time (11:30 p.m. ET).

Dana brought rainfall between 50-150 millimeters (2-6 inches) across Odisha and West Bengal state, with the highest total of 160 mm (6.2 inches) reported in the town of Chandbali. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

Ahead of landfall, authorities evacuated hundreds of thousands of people, shut schools and canceled trains and flights in parts of the country. The India Meteorological Department (India MET) issued its highest red rainfall warning for parts of Odisha and West Bengal.

Odisha’s Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi told the Press Trust of India news agency before the storm’s landfall that around 300,000 people had been evacuated from vulnerable areas, adding that three districts were likely to be severely affected.

Authorities planned to evacuate more than 1 million people from 14 districts. Several teams of aid and rescue workers have also been deployed to the state, which is prone to severe cyclones and storms.

“The government is fully prepared to tackle the situation. You are in safe hands,” Majhi said.

India’s eastern coasts have long been prone to cyclones, but the number of intense storms is increasing along the country’s coast. Last year was India’s deadliest cyclone season in recent years, killing 523 people and costing an estimated $2.5 billion in damage.

Dana is forecast to weaken as it drifts west through Odisha, bringing moderate to isolated heavy rainfall along its path over the weekend.

Additional reporting by the Associated Press.

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At the Joseph Stalin Museum in Gori, the small Georgian town where the Soviet dictator was born, a line of guides is waiting to tell you the story of the local boy who made it big.

They can list the birthdays of Stalin’s family and recite the poems he wrote as a schoolboy (for Stalin “could have been a poet, but chose to be a great leader”). But on other things, they are less exact. Of the millions killed in the gulag, “mistakes were made.” Of show trials, they have little to say.

So revered is Stalin by some that when the government thought it time to remove his towering statue in 2010, they did so unannounced at night, lest locals protest. But while some older voters in rural towns like Gori might harbor fond memories of life under communism and pine for a Soviet past, they seemed set to be swept away by younger generations who have grown up knowing nothing but democracy, and who are happy to see Stalin consigned to history’s dustbin.

Now, as the Caucasus nation counts down to its October 26 parliamentary election, the specter of authoritarianism looms large once again.

Many observers fear the ruling Georgian Dream party will resort to anything to stay in power. It has buried the liberal values it espoused when it took office 12 years ago and effectively torpedoed Georgia’s bid to join the European Union. Its founder, the secretive oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has threatened to imprison his political rivals after the election and ban the main opposition party.

After spending years in the shadows, Ivanishvili – who made his billions in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union and served as Georgia’s prime minister from 2012 to 2013 – returned late last year as the party’s honorary chairman and has since given a string of conspiracy-tinged speeches. He claims Georgia is being controlled by a foreign “pseudo-elite” and that the opposition belongs to a “Global War Party” bent on dragging the country into conflict with Russia. This year, Georgian Dream pushed through a Kremlin-style “foreign agent” law, which critics say aims to shut down watchdogs who call the government to account.

For many, Ivanishvili’s rhetoric is eerily reminiscent of the past from which many Georgians are keen to escape. And the anti-Western posturing of Georgian Dream, along with the country’s controversial foreign agent law, directly mirrors President Vladimir Putin’s crackdown on domestic political opposition in neighboring Russia.

In a speech last month in Gori, Ivanishvili also broke a taboo in Georgian society. He said Georgia should apologize for the 2008 war with Russia, for which many Georgians blame Moscow. Russia fought the five-day war in support of pro-Kremlin separatists in Georgia’s South Ossetia region, just north of Gori. Combined with Abkhazia, another breakaway region, Russia today de facto occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory.

Ivanishvili said apologizing to Russia would help preserve “12 years of uninterrupted peace” the country has enjoyed under Georgian Dream’s leadership, which he warned the opposition could jeopardize. The message has some appeal to his rural base but sparked a political firestorm.

Mikheil Saakashvili, who was Georgia’s president during the war but has been imprisoned since 2021 for abuse of power while in office, called the comments a “betrayal.”

Younger, more pro-European Georgians were also outraged. Their earliest memories are not of easier lives under communism, but of Russian tanks rolling into Gori and towards the capital, Tbilisi. Walking out of the Stalin Museum – past his personal railway carriage, past the hut in which he was born – it is easy to find buildings still scarred with bullet holes from the 2008 war. Many buildings still lie in ruins, while Stalin Avenue has been kept pristine.

For these Georgians, Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 rekindled memories of Russian aggression in their own country. They want nothing more than for Georgia to slip from the Kremlin’s orbit and continue its march toward a European future.

But many fear the government is now heading in the opposite direction, and that Georgia could be on the cusp of returning to the one-party rule from which it escaped a generation ago.

At a press conference in Tbilisi on Thursday, Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili – a pro-Western but largely ceremonial figure who has urged Georgians to vote against the government – said she “rules out any outcome other than a victory for the pro-European forces,” citing polls which routinely show that only around a third of the public support Georgian Dream.

‘Soviet mentality’

A question puzzling many is why the formerly center-left Georgian Dream has made a sudden authoritarian pivot.

The party’s origin was unusual. It takes its name from a rap song by Ivanishvili’s son, Bera. Although some suspected Ivanishvili – whose net worth is equivalent to about a quarter of the country’s GDP – might pursue a pro-Russian path, during his brief premiership he tacked close to Europe and even promised eventual NATO membership.

“A modern civil society has been a cherished goal of the Georgian people since we regained our independence 20 years ago,” Ivanishvili wrote in an email to then-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2012, subsequently leaked. “Unfortunately, old habits are hard to overcome.”

Having abandoned its liberal origins, Sabanadze said, the party is now “clearly copying” the model of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Budapest this year, Georgia’s Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze praised Orban as a “role model,” parroting his claims to defend “homeland, language and faith.” The government has also passed legislation curbing LGBTQ+ rights.

But now it is poised to go much further. Ivanishvili has promised a “Nuremberg trial” against members of the opposition, who have been subject to increasing persecution. During street protests in Tbilisi against the foreign agent law, Levan Khabeishvili – chair of the pro-Western United National Movement (UNM) – said he was brutally beaten by police. He appeared the next day in parliament, his face blackened and swollen.

The Georgian government did not respond to a request for comment.

Preparing for the worst

A consequence of Russia’s war in Ukraine was the EU’s decision to offer Georgia candidate status. Brussels, keen to stem Russia’s influence in former Soviet countries, put Georgia – along with Ukraine and Moldova – on an accelerated path to membership.

Many say this was despite Georgian Dream, rather than because of it. During protests against the “foreign agent” law, the images of citizens waving EU flags being buffeted back by water cannons put pressure on Brussels to reward the Georgian people, of whom more than 80% support EU membership, polls show.

Whether Ivanishvili wanted candidate status is not clear. Joining the EU would require cleaning up the country’s judiciary and giving up power if Georgian Dream is voted out on Saturday. His opponents doubt he is willing to do this.

Under the country’s new proportional voting system, Khabeishvili of the UNM says Georgia’s fragmented opposition will have no trouble forming a coalition after the election. But he fears that Ivanishvili will seek to cling to power after an election loss.

If this happens, he predicts huge protests in Tbilisi and throughout the country. Here, things could get ugly. Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said in August that Georgia’s Western allies are plotting a coup to remove Georgian Dream from power. He warned Russia will be on standby to prevent this.

For Sabanadze, the stakes could not be higher: How Georgians vote on Saturday, and how the government responds, will determine whether the country remains on a path to Europe or becomes more like Belarus.

“When I was in Brussels, I thought that Georgia would never become an authoritarian state again, because it’s just something that we find very difficult to accept,” she said. “Georgians will put up a fight. The Belarus scenario will not happen easily.”

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Britain’s King Charles has said the Commonwealth should acknowledge its “painful” history and urged the organization to “right inequalities that endure” as he opened a meeting of Commonwealth countries in Samoa on Friday.

“I understand from listening to people across the Commonwealth how the most painful aspects of our past continue to resonate. It is vital therefore that we understand our history, to guide us to make the right choices in the future,” Charles said in his first speech as head of the Commonwealth.

“As we look around the world and consider its many deeply concerning challenges, let us choose within our Commonwealth family the language of community and respect, and reject the language of division,” he said in the speech after the subject of slavery reparations reemerged in recent days.

Charles, who did not directly refer to slavery during his address, also said: “None of us can change the past, but we can commit with all our hearts to learning its lessons and to finding creative ways to right inequalities that endure.”

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, or CHOGM, is held every two years, and brings together delegations from the 56 member states to work together to try and tackle some of the world’s most pressing issues such as climate change, creating opportunities for young people and fostering inclusive and sustainable prosperity for all.

Charles was addressing Commonwealth leaders, foreign ministers and dignitaries during the welcome ceremony on Friday.

Ahead of the gathering, the BBC reported that diplomats were preparing text for the summit’s official communique that would commit to a “meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation” on the issue.

In recent years, the British monarchy has adopted a more conciliatory tone when addressing the past horrors of transatlantic slavery. In Kenya last November, his first trip to a Commonwealth nation as head of the body, Charles said, the “wrongdoings of the past are a cause of the greatest sorrow and the deepest regret.”

This is a developing story and will be updated.

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“Oink oink?” “Yes, of course.”

Communication with pigs may soon be possible as scientists say they have developed an AI tool that can interpret what the animals are saying.

While it’s not quite Doctor Doolittle, the algorithm is capable of decoding pig sounds and could potentially alert farmers to negative emotions, researchers say.

It’s hoped the tool can help improve animal welfare.

The scientists, from universities in Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, France, Norway and the Czech Republic, used thousands of recorded pig sounds from different scenarios to build the algorithm.

Scenarios include play, isolation and competition for food, and they found that that grunts, oinks, and squeals reveal positive or negative emotions.

“Emotions of animals are central to their welfare, but we don’t measure it much on farms,” says study co-leader Elodie Mandel-Briefer, a behavioural biologist at University of Copenhagen.

The study found that pigs kept in outdoor, free-range or organic farms, with the ability to roam and dig in the dirt, produced fewer stress calls than conventionally raised pigs.

Researchers think this method could one day be used to label farms, helping consumers make informed choices.

“Once we have the tool working, farmers can have an app on their phone that can translate what their pigs are saying in terms of emotions,” Ms Mandel-Briefer said.

So what do the sounds mean? Let’s have a look at some of the study’s findings.

• Short grunts typically indicate positive emotions
• Long grunts often signal discomfort
• High-frequency sounds like screams or squeals usually mean the pigs are stressed

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