Germany’s political system is set up to exclude extremists. Yet the country is waking up to a new political reality that has lurched to the right with the once outcast Alternative for Germany (AfD) party now firmly established in German politics.

The country’s mainstream conservatives, as polls predicted, won the largest share of votes in Sunday’s election according to official preliminary results and will be looking to form the next government, while the AfD came in second. But make no mistake – second place is a huge result for a party that although it likely won’t be in office once the dust settles, will enjoy expanded influence.

The party has doubled its support since the previous election in 2021, when it received 10.3% of the vote. It is now the first far-right party in Germany’s post-World War II history to have attained such broad levels of public popularity, and it has also significantly increased its share of seats in Germany’s parliament, or Bundestag.

The AfD reached a particularly large number of voters in eastern Germany, where it has long had a stronghold. But it also gained some significant support in constituencies in the country’s west, including the industrial city of Gelsenkirchen which has been suffering with stagnating economy and high unemployment, and Kaiserslautern, which is surrounded by a number of US military installation, including the Ramstein Air Base.

“We have never been stronger – we are the second-biggest force,” AfD co-leader Alice Weidel gloated, as she addressed crowds in Berlin after exit poll results were revealed on Sunday evening.

The mood at the far right’s election party in Berlin was ecstatic as the exit polls first flashed onto the screens, with people cheering and waving Germany flags.

For his part, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader and Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz claimed victory as he slammed US interference in the country’s election campaign – which saw high-profile figures from the Trump administration speak out in support of the AfD.

These interventions are “no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow,” Merz said.

Formed in reaction to Eurozone policies in 2013, the AfD had become accustomed to being on the fringe of German politics, in a country scarred by its Nazi past and where any far-right party has been treated with caution.

It only secured its first seats in the Bundestag in 2017 and struggled to find a platform on Germany’s traditional media due to its strident anti-migrant and anti-Islam rhetoric. This election marks the first time the party has ever fielded a candidate for chancellor.

The party has called for “remigration” – the mass expulsion of immigrants. The controversial policy has drawn comparisons to the Nazi era. The AfD is officially suspected of right-wing extremism by German authorities, and parts of it have been under government surveillance.

All that appears to have changed. The AfD is now Germany’s largest opposition party, making it a major political contender that cannot be ignored. It has driven the debate in Germany while forcing mainstream rivals to recognize that they need to do more on flashpoint issues if they want to retain votes.

Their rise reflects what has been happening across Europe where a host of hard-right parties have made gains. Whether in the Netherlands, France or Austria, such parties can no longer easily be dismissed as political outcasts when they have won over sizeable shares of the vote – or in the case of Italy, run the country.

Having a significant voice in parliament means that “they [the AfD] will be able to apply pressure on the major parties from a position of greater strength,” said Gemma Loomes, a Lecturer in Comparative Politics at Keele University.

“The surge in support will embolden the party to talk, perhaps even more aggressively, about the issues that matter most to them but that the major parties are reluctant to address,” Loomes added.

All this begs the question: can the so-called “firewall” – an unofficial agreement between Germany’s mainstream parties to band together to keep the AfD out of power – last?

Merz’s controversial decision to push through an immigration bill with help from the AfD in January could be an early indication of how he intends to proceed in his chancellery.

She believes there may already be a “crack” in the firewall.

“In five, or 10, or 15 years it may no longer be there,” she speculates, perhaps at the regional level initially, if not the national level.

“The real question for center parties is how do we address voters’ genuine grievances, and how do we do it in a way that doesn’t just amplify the far right.”

Meanwhile, AfD politicians already have their sights firmly set on the next election in 2029 – when they are determined the firewall” will no longer exist.

Similarly, Weidel told reporters in Berlin on Monday morning, “Friedrich Merz has decided to maintain his blockade stance towards the AfD. We consider this blockade to be undemocratic. You cannot exclude millions of voters per se.”

Merz’s right-wing pivot ‘fraught with danger’

Merz now faces a tightrope walk as he seeks to form a new government while carving out a new path for the CDU.

The CDU has been ever-present in Germany’s post-war era and oversaw the reunification of east and west.

Yet, at the same time, everything has changed since it was last in power.

No longer tied with the liberal, “open door” policies it became synonymous with under Angela Merkel, Merz has vowed to bring the party back to its more conservative roots as part of efforts to counter the far right.

However, Merz’s promise to pivot the CDU back to the right does not come without risks. The move threatens to further embolden the AfD while isolating the CDU’s more centrist supporter base.

For Loomes, it is a decision that is “fraught with danger.”

“The AfD currently has positioned itself as the only party willing to talk about immigration and to propose radical action to tackle the perceived problem,” she said.

“If the CDU positions itself in this space, it risks being perceived as a less authentic version of the AfD. Voters are convinced the AfD cares passionately about limiting immigration; they may be less convinced it is a genuine priority for the CDU.”

Merz’s new government will likely involve the other major centrist party, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), which led Germany’s previous coalition and came out third in Sunday’s vote.

However, coalition building could prove difficult, with the two parties potentially clashing on key issues, particularly foreign policy. There are no guarantees that the new government will not be as incohesive and unable to govern as the previous coalition.

Transatlantic winds

While Germany has long held far-right parties with a disdain not seen in its European neighbours, some Germans believe the time has come to break old taboos.

And the AfD’s powerful transatlantic ally is only serving to bolster this view.

Tech billionaire Elon Musk addressed crowds during a surprise appearance at the AfD campaign launch in January. “There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that,” he said, in a speech that echoes AfD talking points and was met with rapturous applause.

Meanwhile, in a scathing speech at the Munich Security Council, US Vice President JD Vance told Europe’s leaders that there is “no room for firewalls” in a democracy, a clear nod to the AfD.

Merz will have to contend with a Trump administration that has praised a key rival and appears set on dismantling long-term security ties between Europe and the US.

A strong Berlin government and a united Europe now seems more important than ever. The continent is searching for leadership as Trump moves ahead on Ukraine peace talks without its involvement.

For Merz, Europe’s independence from the US is a prime concern. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he said at a televised roundtable with other party leaders Sunday evening.

While Germany’s mainstream has held off a radical far-right government, Merz’s challenges are only just beginning.

The Israeli military this weekend deployed tanks to the occupied West Bank for the first time in two decades.

In the background of a Gaza ceasefire, Israel has steadily escalated an intense military operation in Palestinian cities in the West Bank, killing dozens and displacing tens of thousands of residents.

Since Hamas’ October 7 attack, Israel has regularly launched airstrikes on the West Bank, which was almost unheard of before. Its defense minister, Israel Katz, said on Sunday that he’d instructed the military to stay for a year and “to prevent the return of residents.”

US President Donald Trump has come under withering criticism for his proposal to expel 2.1 million Palestinians from Gaza. And yet, as the left-leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz alleged in an editorial Monday, “Israel is already doing in the West Bank what it threatens to do in Gaza.”

Here’s what’s happening.

What is the West Bank?

The West Bank, a territory that lies west of the Jordan River between Israel and Jordan, has been occupied by the Israeli military since 1967. It is home to more than 3.3 million Palestinians.

Israel captured the West Bank and East Jerusalem – including the Old City, with its religious landmarks – from Jordan after a brief war in 1967. Many Israelis believe that Jews have a biblical right to the land, which they call Judea and Samaria.

Since Israel captured the West Bank, around half a million Jewish Israelis have built homes in towns known as “settlements.” Because the West Bank is considered to be occupied under international law, these settlements are illegal, but they are condoned – and even encouraged – by the Israeli government.

In the 1990s, Israel and Palestinian factions started a peace process, which came to be known as the Oslo Accords. The agreement set up a Palestinian government, known as the Palestinian Authority, which would have jurisdiction in parts of the West Bank and Gaza, ahead of the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

Many communities in Palestinian cities are known as refugee camps. Though they now resemble urban neighborhoods, they were established after the 1948 Arab-Israeli war for Palestinians who fled or were forced from their homes during the creation of Israel.

In July, the International Court of Justice, the United Nations’ top court, issued an unprecedented advisory opinion that found Israel’s presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem to be illegal, and called on Israel to end its decades-long occupation.

What has happened since October 7?

There has always been tension between Palestinians and the Israeli government in the West Bank. Israel has for many years carried out regular incursions into Palestinian communities – targeting, it says, Palestinian militants.

But Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel ushered in a new era.

The Israeli military ramped up its restrictions on Palestinians, setting up new checkpoints and restricting who could cross from the West Bank into Israel. There was a spike of attacks by Jewish settlers on Palestinians, killing dozens.

Armored Israeli bulldozers often rip up tarmacked roads during these incursions. Israel argues it’s a necessary tactic to unearth improvised explosive devices, but it often leaves whole neighborhoods entirely impassable.

Israel has also targeted other aspects of Palestinian life in the West Bank. The Knesset, the country’s parliament, passed a law last year that would make it extremely difficult for the United Nations’ agency for Palestinians to continue operations, alleging that UNRWA, as it’s known, hasn’t done enough to crack down on extremism in its ranks. UNRWA educates 45,000 Palestinians in the West Bank and provides nearly a million annual patient visits at 43 health care facilities.

What’s happening now?

Israel launched an even more aggressive military operation in the northern West Bank in January, focused on the Jenin refugee camp, dubbed “Operation Iron Wall.” Israel says the operation is necessary to root out Iranian-backed militants who threaten its security.

The defense minister has said that Israel is applying its Gaza playbook to the West Bank.

“A powerful operation to eliminate terrorists and terror infrastructure in the camp, ensuring that terrorism does not return to the camp after the operation is over – the first lesson from the method of repeated raids in Gaza,” Katz said last month.

Israel’s operation has forced more than 40,000 Palestinians from their homes in the West Bank, according to the United Nations. The military has killed more than 1,000 Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since October 7, 2023, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Among those are at least 184 children. Just this weekend, the Israeli military admitted its forces had killed two 13-year-old children, and that it was investigating the incidents.

Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Saar, told reporters in Brussels on Monday that “it’s military operations taking place there against terrorists and (there are) no other objectives but this one.”

What role does Trump play?

It is impossible to ignore the role of Trump. His election has emboldened those in Israel who want the government to extend full Israeli sovereignty to West Bank settlements, a process known as annexation. Some want to go even further and annex all of the West Bank.

Trump said earlier this month that “people do like the idea” of annexation, “but we haven’t taken a position on it yet.”

“But we’ll be making an announcement probably on that very specific topic over the next four weeks,” he said.

Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who is in charge of West Bank settlements, ordered preparations for annexation, saying that Trump’s election “brings an important opportunity for the state of Israel.” The only way to remove the “threat” of a Palestinian state, he said, “is to apply Israeli sovereignty over the entire settlements in Judea and Samaria.”

The finance minister seems to play a big role in Netanyahu’s more aggressive approach. Smotrich was against the Gaza ceasefire and is pushing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to return to war there. He is a West Bank settler himself. In January, Smotrich said that the government now considers security in the West Bank to be an official “war goal.”

“After Gaza and Lebanon, today, with God’s help, we have begun to change the security concept in Judea and Samaria,” he said.

How did things change this weekend?

Israel’s invasion of Jenin refugee camp was already a significant escalation. But this weekend it became clear that it had no end in sight.

On Friday, Netanyahu visited Jenin and praised the “wonderful job” troops were doing. A photo circulated of him sitting with commanders inside a Palestinian home that the military requisitioned as a command center.

“We are eliminating terrorists, commanders,” he said. “We are doing very, very important work against the desire of Hamas and other terrorist elements to harm us.”

Then on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deployed a tank platoon to Jenin – the first time tanks have been sent into the West Bank since 2002, during the Second Intifada, or uprising. It’s a sign of just how militarized the operation there has become. The Israeli military no longer believes that ground troops – and even airstrikes – are enough.

And while Trump and Israel’s extremist ministers make plans to expel Gaza’s population, Israel’s defense minister Katz announced that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have left their West Bank homes in recent weeks will not be allowed to return.

“Today, I instructed the IDF to prepare for an extended presence in the cleared camps for the next year, and not to allow the return of residents and the resurgence of terror,” he said.