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U.S. orange production has plummeted as the industry faces volatile threats from extreme weather events, an incurable disease and economic pressures.

Citrus growers are losing millions of dollars every year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. 

At the same time, orange juice futures have hit record highs.

“Citrus production in the United States [is a] pretty dire situation right now,” Daniel Munch, economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told CNBC. “When you have a lack of supply that’s unable to meet demand, prices for consumers shoot up.” 

Florida has seen a dramatic orange production decline in recent years. According to the USDA, there were over 658,000 orange acres in Florida in 1998. As of 2023, there were just over 303,000 acres of oranges planted in Florida, or a total acreage drop of more than 50% in just 25 years.

A large part of the problem can be traced to the spread of citrus greening disease, which is considered to be one of the most serious plant diseases in the world that is currently incurable.

“When citrus greening starts to enter the grove, it reduces the productivity of those trees, ultimately forcing them into death, and then therefore removal from the grove,” Amy O’Shea, CEO of Invaio Sciences, an agricultural sciences company, told CNBC.

The problems plaguing citrus production are not easily remedied as climate change has made extreme weather more common and scientists have yet to come up with scalable citrus greening treatments.

Some of the key research areas include fruit breeding for citrus greening-resistant varieties, antimicrobial treatments and other pest control solutions, like crop covers. 

Invaio is one of the companies researching and developing treatments for citrus greening.

“We’ve developed a very unique precision delivery technology called Trecise, that we’re able to insert into the tree and deliver a very reduced amount of an antimicrobial, “O’Shea told CNBC.

When Trecise is inserted into a tree, the active ingredient goes into its vascular system as opposed to being applied outside of the tree, according to O’Shea.

In August 2023, Invaio’s Trecise received emergency approval for use from the Florida Department of Agriculture and Community Services.

The volatility of these threats may cut into citrus harvest expectations, which leads experts to believe that higher prices for orange juice are likely to remain, at least in the short term. 

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

CarShield, a company that sells vehicle service contracts to automobile owners that it claims will cover the cost of certain repairs, has agreed to pay $10 million in a settlement with federal regulators over charges that its marketing tactics were deceptive and misleading.

In a statement Wednesday, the Federal Trade Commission said CarShield, which employs celebrity endorsers including rapper and actor Ice-T and sports commentator Chris Berman, had falsely lured customers with the promise of ‘peace of mind’ and ‘protection’ from the cost and inconvenience of vehicle breakdowns through its contracts.

The FTC also charged American Auto Shield, LLC (AAS), the administrator of CarShield’s vehicle service contracts, in the scheme.

The agency said that at least one ad, which ran 18,000 times on television, stated, ‘With CarShield’s administrators, they make sure you don’t get stuck with expensive car repair bills like this.’ It also touted CarShield contracts as ‘your best line of defense against expensive breakdowns.’

Yet many purchasers discovered that their repairs were not covered, despite making payments of up to $120 per month for CarShield’s product, the FTC said. 

‘Instead of delivering the ‘peace of mind’ promised by its advertisements, CarShield left many consumers with a financial headache,’ Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in a statement.

‘Worse still, CarShield used trusted personalities to deliver its empty promises,’ Levine said. ‘The FTC will hold advertisers accountable for using false or deceptive claims to exploit consumers’ financial anxieties.”

In a statement, CarShield said that while it disagreed with ‘many’ of the FTC’s assertions, it shares the agency’s ‘commitment to helping customers fully understand exactly what we provide and the value we offer.’

It said that its marketing efforts now include additional details about the elements of typically covered car repair and that full plans are now ‘easily viewed prior to making a purchase decision.’

And it said it had expanded its Shield Repair Network ‘by adding more than 10,000 preferred car repair shops, and added a concierge system to help customers quickly locate a repair facility convenient for them.’

A representative for AAS did not respond to a request for comment.

CarShield, based in Missouri, has an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau — but the company’s BBB listing features more than 300 pages of complaints and a 1.6 out of 5 customer rating. A recent report from WDAF-TV of Kansas City, Missouri, said CarShield had sued the BBB, with the case being settled out of court.

American Auto Shield, based in Colorado, likewise has a 2.9 customer rating despite an official A+ rating from the BBB.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Venu Sports, the sports streaming joint venture between Disney’s ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery and Fox Corp., will cost $42.99 a month.

The upcoming streaming platform announced its pricing on Thursday and said it plans to launch in the fall. It will offer a 7-day free trial. Further details are expected to be released when it launches. Venu is still pending regulatory approval.

The goal is for Venu Sports to become available ahead of the start of the NFL season, which begins on Thursday, Sept. 5, according to a person familiar with the matter. Fox holds the rights to Sunday NFL games, while ESPN is the broadcaster of Monday Night Football.

CNBC earlier reported the service would likely start at between $45 and $50 a month.

The high-end pricing — common in direct-to-consumer sports streaming services — was expected in part so it wouldn’t shake up any carriage agreements with traditional pay TV distributors. Live sports remain the highest rated TV programming and are the most costly part of the pay TV bundle. In turn, media rights valuations have ballooned, most recently the NBA’s 11-year, $77 billion package.

Users who sign up for Venu at $42.99 a month will have access to that entry pricing for 12 months, Venu noted Thursday — signaling there could be price increases ahead.

“Targeted at sports fans outside the traditional pay TV bundle, Venu is planning a launch in the U.S. in the fall and will offer thousands of live sports events from all the major professional sports leagues and top college conferences,” the company said in Thursday’s release.

The three media companies, which announced the joint venture in February, each own a one-third stake in Venu, which is run as its own company with its own management team. Former Apple and Hulu executive Pete Distad was appointed CEO. The subsidiary announced the name Venu in May.

The platform will include the entirety of the portfolio of live sports rights owned by its parent companies, including the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, college football and basketball, among others. Venu subscribers will also have access to 14 traditional TV sports networks of its parent companies, including ESPN, ABC, Fox, TNT and TBS, as well as the streaming service ESPN+.

“With an impressive portfolio of sports programming, Venu will provide sports fans in the U.S. with a single destination for watching many of the most sought-after games and events,” said Distad said in a news release. “We’re building Venu from the ground up for fans who want seamless access to watch the sports they love, and we will launch at a compelling price point that will appeal to the cord cutter and cord never fans currently not served by existing pay TV packages.”

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are also planning to bundle their streaming services, Max, Disney+ and Hulu. The upcoming bundle will be priced at $16.99 a month with ads, and $29.99 a month ad-free.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Yum Brands hopes to use artificial intelligence to take down drive-thru orders at hundreds of Taco Bell restaurants by the end of this year.

The restaurant company announced on Wednesday that it is expanding its rollout of the tech in the U.S. as it eyes implementing it in drive-thru lanes globally.

Yum Brands joins restaurant rivals such as Wendy’s and White Castle in betting on voice AI, but its plans are the most ambitious to date. While tech companies may promise that voice AI can speed up service times, reduce labor costs and boost sales through upselling, restaurant companies have taken a more measured approach so far, testing the tech to make sure both its employees and customers enjoy the experience.

In June, McDonald’s said it would end its trial of Automated Order Taker, an AI technology tested in partnership with IBM. The Chicago-based company now plans to turn to other vendors instead.

Yum Brands has moved quickly on its test. In May, executives said Taco Bell would expand its pilot of voice AI from five locations to 30 restaurants in California. Currently, more than 100 Taco Bell restaurants in the U.S. use voice AI. Taco Bell had nearly 7,700 U.S. locations at the end of 2023, according to company filings.

Yum Brands said the tech has improved order accuracy, reduced wait times, decreased employees’ task load and fueled profitable growth for the restaurant company and its operators.

“With over two years of fine tuning and testing the drive-thru Voice AI technology, we’re confident in its effectiveness in optimizing operations and enhancing customer satisfaction,” Yum Brands Chief Innovation Officer Lawrence Kim said in a statement.

Five KFC restaurants in Australia are also testing voice AI tech in drive-thrus, Yum Brands said.

Yum Brands is expected to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The United Auto Workers has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris over Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump.

The union’s endorsement shouldn’t be surprising. UAW President Shawn Fain has been outspoken against Trump. The Detroit union also has historically supported Democrats, including President Joe Biden.

It comes after Biden withdrew his re-election bid and endorsed Harris to become the Democratic nominee against Trump.

Fain and Trump have been at odds — publicly trading remarks — since the union leader was elected early last year. Trump called for Fain to be fired during a speech earlier this month at the Republican National Convention.

The union responded with a post calling Trump a “scab and a billionaire,” continuing “that’s who he represents. We know which side we’re on. Not his.”

Quickly after Biden dropped out of the election, the UAW praised him and showed support for Harris, who walked a picket line with union members during a strike in 2019.

“The path forward is clear: we will defeat Donald Trump and his billionaire agenda and elect a champion for the working class to the highest office in this country,” the union said in a statement July 21 after Biden had dropped out of the 2024 race. That statement stopped short of formally endorsing Harris.

The UAW’s endorsement is crucial for any candidate looking to secure the battleground state of Michigan, because of the UAW’s potential influence there. The Detroit-based union has roughly 370,000 active members and 580,000 retired members, many of which reside in the Midwest.

Michigan voters helped both Biden and Trump to win the White House during the past two presidential elections.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Federal Reserve officials said Wednesday that while there are signs the economy is slowing, the Fed was not yet ready to cut its key interest rate.

Yet even as it held rates at their current level of about 5.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest statement included changes in language that acknowledged growing signs of economic weakness that suggest a greater willingness to consider lowering borrowing costs.

Notably, the FOMC observed some deterioration in labor-market conditions.

“Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low,” it said in the statement Wednesday.

At 4.1%, the unemployment rate is at its highest level since February 2018, though still below levels that would suggest a recession.

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that while layoff activity remained subdued in June, the hiring rate in the economy has slowed to a level not seen since 2014. The percentage of unemployed workers who have gone without roles for 27 weeks or more has recently begun to surge, with about 1.5 million total workers now in that category.

Yet the FOMC said Wednesday it would not budge “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” a line Fed officials have repeated previously. 

In a note to clients after the statement was released, Omair Sharif, founder and president of the Inflation Insights research group, said the Fed had taken a ‘baby step’ toward a cut that traders have bet will come in September.

‘I expect that further good news on the inflation front in July should set up the Chair to deliver a more meaningful signal that a rate cut in September is very likely,’ Sharif wrote.

Likewise, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management financial group, said the statement ‘cracks the door open to the September cut that everyone is expecting.’

In remarks following the statement’s release Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged a rate cut ‘could be on the table for September’ but said monetary policymakers ‘just need to see more good data.’

In recent testimony to Congress, Powell acknowledged that central bank officials had started the clock on lowering rates, saying acting “too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

The Federal Reserve helps set the interest rates that determine how much it costs consumers and businesses to borrow money for products and services.

For the past two years, it has sought to fight inflation by keeping interest rates elevated, in essence fighting fire with fire: By making borrowing more expensive, it has cooled demand in the economy and thus slowed the rate at which prices have increased.

Now, the Fed is signaling that the higher rates have done their job on the inflation front — and that keeping them aflame could lead to unnecessary damage to the rest of the economy.

Wall Street traders have signaled for weeks that a September rate cut is a virtual certainty, according to data from the financial services company CME Group.

But influential former Fed officials have begun calling for a more rapid timeline. Bill Dudley, a former New York Federal Reserve president, wrote this month that a rate cut should occur before September. In a Bloomberg News op-ed, Dudley said he had ‘changed his mind,’ with unemployment creeping higher and with all but the wealthiest households having depleted their immediate post-pandemic financial cushions.

‘Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk,’ Dudley wrote.

This week, Alan Blinder, a Fed vice chair in the Clinton administration, said in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the time to cut is now.

‘Why wait?’ Blinder asked, declaring the two-year fight against pandemic-induced inflation over as ‘the economy seems to be simmering down.’

Cutting rates would only be a matter of heading off a negative economic outcome: Companies have signaled that there’s upside, too.

Sectors whose success is especially sensitive to interest rates and consumer credit, like the housing and automotive markets, have shown particular weakness — including signals from companies in those industries that they expect sales to ramp up again once interest rates begin to fall.

“There is now a higher probability of interest rate relief beginning in September,” said Dave Foulkes, CEO of Brunswick Corp., a boat-making specialist. While new cuts would most likely have only a minor impact on 2024 results because peak season will have passed, they’d be “a potential tailwind for 2025.”

The Fed will announce the results of the Open Market Committee meeting at 2 p.m. Wednesday.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Online home goods company Wayfair saw sales decline in its fiscal second quarter as its CEO called the current slowdown in the home goods category “unprecedented” — and likened it to the 2008 financial crisis.

“Our credit card data suggests that the category correction now mirrors the magnitude of the peak to trough decline the home furnishing space experienced during the great financial crisis,” Wayfair CEO Niraj Shah said in a news release. “Customers remain cautious in their spending on the home.”

The e-tailer fell short of Wall Street’s expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Shares opened about 8% lower before paring some losses.

Here’s how Wayfair did in its second fiscal quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

The company reported a loss of $42 million, or 34 cents per share, in the three-month period that ended June 30. That’s slightly better than the loss of $46 million, or 41 cents per share, that it posted during the same quarter a year earlier. 

Sales dropped to $3.12 billion, down about 2% from $3.17 billion a year earlier. The slowdown in sales came even as average order values rose in the quarter from $313 to $307 and after the company opened its first large format store.

For the current quarter, Wayfair expects revenue to be down in the low single digits, compared to estimates of 1.7% growth, according to LSEG.

For more than a year, home goods companies like Wayfair have seen sluggish demand for things like new couches and dining sets as the overall housing market turned stagnant against high interest rates. Consumers are buying fewer new homes, which means they have fewer reasons to buy new furniture. Plus, with stubborn inflation, they’ve been more choosy on where they’re spending their discretionary income, and with options like restaurants, new clothes and trips, home goods have not been a priority. 

Wayfair has needed to entice customers with discounts to bring them in and doesn’t expect to see a resurgence in the category until interest rates are cut and the housing market bounces back. 

“We see declines that are similar to the declines that we saw in that 2008 to 2010 period and I think what that speaks to is that the category has been going through just a massive correction, a correction that we’ve previously only seen during a GDP recession,” Wayfair finance chief Kate Gulliver told CNBC in an interview. 

“Obviously we’re not technically in a GDP recession as a country right now, and so this is somewhat a unique thing to this category… we’ve seen that kind of recession-like correction in the category over the last few years.” 

During a call with analysts, Shah called the slowdown in the home goods category “unprecedented” and said it’s similar to what the space saw during the great financial crisis.

“Our credit card data suggests that the category was down by nearly 25% from the peak we saw in the fourth quarter of 2021,” said Shah. “Importantly, this calculation is on nominal dollars, adjusting for inflation suggests we’re now in the midst of a correction in excess of 35%, an unprecedented level of pullback in our sector.”

Reprieve could soon be on the way after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rate cuts could come as soon as September as long as economic data continues on its current path.

“Given how deep we are into the cycle, it’s fair to expect a turnaround to come soon, and Wayfair is well positioned to benefit,” said Shah.

Wayfair, which has implemented a string of mass layoffs to get its cost structure in line with the current size of its business, has struggled to reach profitability, but the quarter was the best for free cash flow generation and adjusted EBITDA in three years, Shah said. 

The company saw adjusted EBITDA of $163 million during the quarter, still below the $168 million that Wall Street had expected, according to StreetAccount. 

“We are running the business with the goal of demonstrating substantial growth in profitability this year, even as the top line remains challenging. And that will be our mindset every year going forward as well,” said Shah.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The assassination of the political leader of Hamas has plunged the Middle East into fresh crisis and dented already slim hopes of an end to the war between Israel and the militant group that rules Gaza anytime soon.

Hamas on Wednesday said Israel killed its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, Iran, hours after Israel claimed a strike on the Lebanese capital Beirut that killed a senior Hezbollah commander who it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for Haniyeh’s killing.

Experts say the assassinations throw an ominous shadow on efforts to procure a ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza, as well as hopes of de-escalation between Israel and its Iran-backed rivals in the region.

Here’s what the killing of the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders means for the Gaza war and the region.

Future of ceasefire talks unclear

Months of negotiations on a deal to end the war in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas had already hit repeated roadblocks before Haniyeh, a key player in the talks, was killed on Tuesday night.

As recently as early July, Haniyeh was in touch with mediators in Qatar and Egypt to discuss ideas on ending the war, sparking some hope that the two sides could be on the brink of a framework agreement.

All of that could now be thrown up in the air by his death.

“He was someone who saw the value of a deal and was instrumental to getting certain breakthroughs in the talks,” the source said, adding that “at this stage, it’s unclear what the effect will be on ceasefire talks.”

Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, a key mediator in the Israel-Hamas talks, wrote on X: “Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”

Qatar, which has helped release some of the Israeli hostages, sheltered the Hamas leader before his death, and the group’s political bureau has been based in its capital Doha since 2012.

Questions will also be asked about the calculations of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who many observers – including families of the hostages – have accused of deliberately stalling on negotiations and dragging out the war to safeguard his own political survival.

“Netanyahu has systematically sabotaged ceasefire talks because ending the war will likely end his political career,” said Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute, a US-based foreign policy think tank, in a post on X. “The assassination buys Netanyahu several weeks, if not months, in which there will be no serious expectation of a ceasefire deal.”

Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli hostage negotiator who once acted as a channel to Hamas, noted that negotiations were already deadlocked even before the assassination of Haniyeh.

Now, Baskin said, it is unclear how much longer Qatari and Egyptian mediators will allow themselves “to be played by Israel and Hamas,” adding that it may be time for the mediators to put a deal on the table and ask parties to “take it or leave it.”

A faltered negotiation process also extends the risk to the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza.

The Hostages Families Forum said Wednesday that “true achievement” in the war can only be realized with the release of all hostages still in captivity, saying they “implore the Israeli government and global leaders to decisively advance negotiations.”

“Time is of the essence,” the Forum said in a statement. “This is the time for a deal.”

There are 111 hostages still in Gaza, including 39 believed to be dead, according to data from Netanyahu’s office. Their families have repeatedly slammed Netanyahu for failing to secure their release.

No respite for the suffering in Gaza

Without a ceasefire, Gaza’s besieged population will find no respite from the war, which has so far killed more than 39,000 people, according to the health ministry in the strip. Swathes of the territory have been flattened, and a humanitarian crisis is rapidly spiraling out of control.

The war, which Israel launched in response to Hamas’ October 7 attacks that killed 1,200 people, has also displaced almost all of Gaza’s population of 2 million, with 86% of the territory now under Israeli evacuation orders.

Qatar’s foreign ministry on Wednesday said Haniyeh’s killing “would lead to the region sliding into a cycle of chaos and undermine the chances of peace.”

Egypt, a key mediator in the conflict but whose ties with Israel have been strained since October 7, had condemned what it called “Israel’s dangerous policy of escalation” and warned against “the nonsense policy of assassination and violation of the sovereignty of states.”

In a statement, Egypt said the two killings risk “igniting” confrontation in the region.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday said the United States was “not aware of or involved in” Haniyeh’s killing and that the Biden administration had been working “from day one” for a ceasefire to prevent the conflict from spreading to other regions.

HA Hellyer, scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, said that unless there is an active effort to cool tensions in the region, “escalation will happen by, unfortunately, default.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russia has launched one of the largest drone attacks on Ukraine since the war began, mainly targeting overnight the region in and around the capital Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian military, which said all 89 drones fired were shot down.

It marks the largest attack on the capital so far this year, and the seventh time Russia has targeted Kyiv this month, military officials said on Wednesday.

The “massive” attack lasted more than seven hours and the drones came in two waves, Kyiv officials said, adding that “not a single drone reached its target.”

There were no hits to residential or critical infrastructure and no casualties in the Kyiv region, according to regional military head Ruslan Kravchenko. However, 13 houses were damaged and rescuers extinguished one fire caused by the downed drones. “The majority of the UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] debris fell outside of the settlements,” he added.

Dramatic video released by the Ukrainian Air Force shows one drone on fire, falling from the sky and landing in a field — causing a large cloud of smoke but no visible damage.

Russia also attacked the country’s Mykolaiv region with an X-59 guided missile from the airspace of the occupied Kherson region, which Ukraine said it also shot down. However, separate attacks on eastern and southern Ukraine killed at least two people Wednesday morning.

The Kremlin did not comment on the attacks in its regular briefing with reporters on Wednesday.

Repeated calls for more air defense systems

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk called the drone barrage targeting Kyiv “one of the most massive attacks by Shahed-131/136” drones, comparing it to the Russian attack on New Year’s Eve in which 90 Shaheds were launched.

“Just like then, today the Ukrainian air defense has withstood and repelled a massive attack by enemy drones,” he said. “Mobile fire groups of all the Ukrainian Defence Forces, tactical aviation of the Air Force and Army Aviation of the Land Forces, anti-aircraft missile units and electronic warfare units of the Air Force were involved in repelling the air attack.”

During another wave of aerial attacks days before the New Year’s Eve holiday, Russia fired an unprecedented number of drones and missiles at targets across Ukraine, killing at least 31 people and injuring more than 150 others, according to Ukrainian officials at the time.

Since then, Ukraine has repeatedly pleaded for allies to provide more air defense systems.

“Ukrainians can fully protect their skies from Russian strikes when they have sufficient supplies,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday.

“The same level of defense is needed against Russian missiles and the occupier’s combat aircraft. And this can be achieved. We need sufficiently courageous decisions from our partners — enough air defense systems, enough range,” Zelensky added. “And Ukrainians will do everything correctly and precisely.”

The Biden administration announced on Monday a new lethal aid package for Ukraine totaling about $1.7 billion and largely consisting of missiles and ammunition for missile, artillery and air defense systems that the US has previously provided to Ukraine.

Deaths in eastern and southern Ukraine

In southern Ukraine, a 68-year-old man in Kherson was killed in a drone strike on Wednesday morning, according to the region’s military head. A 73-year-old woman was also injured in that attack, and elsewhere in the region three people were injured in Russian shelling, the official said.

In the Donetsk region, one resident in the city of Toretsk was killed, and four others were injured in attacks elsewhere.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces said it will “continue to effectively hit important military targets of the Russian occupiers,” claiming that on Tuesday night Ukraine carried out a strike on a weapons and military equipment storage facility near the city of Kursk, Russia.

The governor of Russia’s Kursk region said a fire broke out at a facility there “after an attack by the Ukrainian armed forces.”

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One of the few things working in Iran’s favor after the humiliating news that Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital overnight is that the regime controls most of the information the world gets to see.

What Iran has said so far is that Haniyeh died after being hit by an “airborne guided projectile” in Tehran where he was attending the inauguration of the Iranian president. But we know little else. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike but has previously vowed to eliminate Hamas and its leaders following the October 7 attacks.

Haniyeh’s death came hours after Israel confirmed it carried out a strike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday that killed the most senior military commander of Hezbollah, another Iranian-backed militant group, who it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The precise details of what happened at around 2 a.m. (5.30 p.m. ET) in Tehran, will dictate what comes next, as Iran looks to present a narrative that justifies and fashions its response.

Whatever the truth and whatever Iran proffers, the attack is clearly a grave violation of its sovereignty and the supposed security bubble of the Iranian capital. Haniyeh was the regime’s guest, and its role as a regional power is compromised if it’s unable to guarantee the simple safety of visiting allies.

There are reports he was staying in a guest house for veterans, and it is unclear whose technical responsibility it was to protect this facility – and whether the elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) will be explicitly embarrassed, outside of the wider humiliation of an apparent Israeli assassination deep inside of Iran.

But Iran has stomached comparable violations in the past. The death of its leading nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was met with limited wrath in 2020. The killing of Quds commander Qasem Suleinami, the country’s most fabled military figure, months earlier, led to fiery rhetoric, but instead a limited hit on a remote US base. Iran has stepped back before – and may do so again.

There is no shortage of furious rherotic the day after the strikes, but there is no easy route for Iran. It is clear Tehran has been reluctant, for the months since October 7, to launch its most ferocious proxy, Hezbollah, into a full-scale war with Israel from Lebanon. Putting aside the huge humanitarian horror such a conflict would muster for Lebanese and Israelis alike, Hezbollah remains a powerful card that Tehran gets to play probably once. The regime retains apparent ambitions in its nuclear program and a military eroded by sanctions, so Hezbollah is an ace that must be tabled with astute timing.

Iran has also tried an unprecedented direct all-out attack on Israel before, in April, after senior IRGC commanders were killed in an Israeli strike on Damascus. In short, the 300 drone and missiles fired – straight from Iran at Israel – just didn’t get through. Around 99% of them were intercepted.

The regime’s response to Haniyeh’s death will define its role as a regional power, and, if it fails to appear potent enough, risks that slipping. A stealthy, asymmetric strike, weeks from now, may not fix the damage done to its prestige.

The risk of the unchartered territory we are in is that the gravity of expected responses is not defined – the tit for tat is occurring in an environment evolving by the day. Indeed, the characters making the decisions are changing rapidly, or under intense domestic pressure themselves. This simply accentuates the risk of miscalculation, or of actions taken to satisfy selfish, insular concerns, rather than a wider regional impact. In short, it is a mess that grows, and with it surges the chance of the unexpected.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s first statement on the matter said of Israel, “You killed our dear guest in our house and now have paved the way for your harsh punishment.” But remember this is a superannuated, octogenarian leader who has just endured years of popular unrest and rising conflict with Israel, and 24 hours ago saw a surprisingly moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, get sworn in. He is projecting strength internally as much as he is internationally.

Separately, Hezbollah had stumbled it seemed into an acute crisis though the militant group’s apparently mistaken targeting of Druze schoolchildren in the Golan Heights at the weekend. It may feel the strike on Haniyeh has removed the spotlight to respond, for the shortest while, although it may be dragged into Iran’s eventual response. But the fact the assassination of its commander, Fuad Shukr, now seems like a distant memory, exposing how rapidly events are unfolding.

Tehran is taking its time to reveal how, yet again, its innermost sanctum was violated by Israel. The IRGC trailed a statement about Haniyeh at 2.50 a.m. US time, but it eventually avoided most details of how he was killed. Perhaps it doesn’t know, or doesn’t want to say, or is working out what to say in order to find a response that fits – and that it can execute.

Still, red lines have been criss-crossed for months, and this morning we lept a few rungs higher up the ladder of escalation. The agonizing question of the next 24 hours – as Iran fashions its narrative of how this major humiliation came to be – is what remaining steps are there on this well-trodden ladder, and what is at its peak?

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