Ghana’s Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia has conceded defeat a day after a tense presidential election, marking a historic political comeback for the opposition candidate, former leader John Mahama.

Bawumia said in his concession speech on Sunday morning that internally collated results showed that “Mahama has won the presidential election decisively,” ahead of a formal announcement by the electoral commission.

Bawumia said the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) party had also won the parliamentary election. He said he conceded “to avoid further tension and preserve the peace of our country.”

“I have since called H.E John Dramani Mahama to congratulate him as President-elect of the Republic of Ghana,” Bawumia said, adding that “the people have voted for change at this time, and we respect that decision with all humility.”

Opinion polls had predicted a first-round victory for Mahama amid widespread discontent over the country’s economy and a crisis over illegal gold mining.

Ghanaians have been railing against environmental degradation caused by unlicensed small-scale mining, a longstanding issue that has left large swathes of land pockmarked by pits and major rivers polluted.

Ghana is also grappling with its worst economic situation in decades as it reels from high inflation, youth unemployment, and a steep increase in the cost of living.

Bawumia, 61, a UK-trained economist who chaired the nation’s economic management team, faced criticism ahead of the elections over his handling of the struggling economy. On the campaign trail, Mahama also criticized him for saying little about the economy.

Mahama, 66, described the election as a “defining moment” for Ghana and vowed to “reset” the nation on a path “for good governance and accountability.”

He said Sunday he had received a “congratulatory call” from Bawumia, following his “emphatic victory.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said that the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria was a “direct result” of Israel’s military campaign against Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.

“This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East,” he said.

But in a sign of the potential danger Israel feels from unknown rulers in Damascus, Netanyahu said that he had ordered the military to seize the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria.

“Together with the Defense Minister, and with full backing from the Cabinet, I directed the IDF yesterday to take control of the buffer zone and the dominant positions near it,” he said while visiting the Golan Heights. “We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border.”

It is the first time Israeli troops would be stationed in the buffer zone since a 1974 agreement establishing the line of control between Israel and Syria, though they have in the past entered the no-man’s land for brief periods. Since 1974, the buffer zone has been patrolled by United Nations peacekeepers. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and annexed it in 1981.

Israeli leaders are watching events across the border in Syria with a mix of trepidation and glee, as 50 years of detente were upended in a matter of hours.

“We don’t know much,” said Boaz Shapira, a researcher with the Alma Foundation, a think tank dedicated to issues in northern Israel. “The situation that we were used to in Syria in the past – 50 years with the Assad regime – has changed completely.”

Bashar al-Assad was hardly an ally, but there was an understanding that allowed the countries to coexist. Though Israel occasionally offered treatment to casualties of Syria’s civil war, it maintained official neutrality in the conflict. The Israeli military has also for years targeted supply lines of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Syria – most notably killing Iranian military commanders in the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in April – but avoided targeting the Assad regime itself.

The rebels’ rapid capture of Damascus means that Israeli leaders will have to evaluate the implications for their own security.

Iran has now lost one of its most important bulwarks in the region. That will be cause for celebration in Israel, which has been fighting Iranian-backed forces in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) since October last year.

Netanyahu, who declared that the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a step towards changing “the balance of power in the region for years to come,” will see this as advancing that goal.

The collapse of the Assad regime is a “severe blow” for Iran, said Amos Yadlin, a former major general in the Israel Defense Forces, who also served as chief of the Military Intelligence Directorate.

“The rebels tearing down posters of (Iranian commander Qasem) Soleimani and Nasrallah from the Iranian embassy in Damascus illustrate the severity of the blow to the axis,” he said. “Rebuilding Hezbollah seems even more difficult with the loss of Syria, which was a logistical rearguard for weapons from Assad, Iran, and Russia.”

On the other hand, no one quite knows – including in Israel – who the rebels are who now control Syria, and how they will implement their power.

The offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which was formerly an al Qaeda affiliate. The US Government still has a $10 million bounty on the head of its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Kedar said that despite their radical roots, the opening indications were positive. “So far, they are rather rational,” he said. “For example, they are leaving the government to run the country.”

Jolani has called on rebel forces to leave state institutions unharmed. “To all military forces in the city of Damascus, it is strictly forbidden to approach public institutions, which will remain under the supervision of the former Prime Minister until they are officially handed over, and it is also forbidden to fire bullets into the air,” he wrote on Telegram.

“Here, they are learning from the mistakes of the American in Iraq. They don’t want to destroy the country. They want the system to work – of course under different rules and different leadership. This is a very rational way to run the country.”

Yadlin said that Jolani had “demonstrated great political sophistication and conquered Syria almost without a fight.”

“In the short term, the rebels are not a threat to Israel,” he said. “When he is required to establish his rule in Syria, he will not get involved with the most powerful military force in the region. Israel needs to shape the rules of the game against Syria in the same aggressive manner in which it does so in Lebanon.”

That view is not universal. Israel’s Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism Amichai Chiklisaid said in a statement that “the bottom line is that most of Syria is now under the control of affiliates of al-Qaeda and Daesh.” He called for the Israeli military to establish full control within the buffer zone that has since 1974 existed between Israeli- and Syrian-controlled territory.

Indeed, Israel’s top priority will be securing its border with Syria. The IDF said the deployment of troops within the Golan buffer zone was made “to ensure the safety of the communities of the Golan Heights and the citizens of Israel.”

Shapira said he doubted Israel would want to provoke the new leaders in Damascus by pushing into Syrian-controlled Golan. “Taking more territory means we have to deal with other players who might not be so happy about it,” he added.

“There are dozens of different militias,” Shapira said. “It’s going to be very challenging for Israel.”

The Israeli military, in its statement about operations in the Golan, said: “The State of Israel does not interfere in in the domestic conflict within Syria.”

Israel’s top security and political leaders have been mostly mum on events in Syria – no doubt, as they evaluate how to react.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said that Assad’s ouster emphasized the need “to create a strong regional coalition with Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords countries (Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, Sudan) in order to jointly address regional instability. The Iranian axis has weakened significantly, and Israel needs to strive for a comprehensive political achievement that will also assist it in Gaza and the West Bank.”

The red, white, green and black Free Syrian Army flag flew over Damascus on Sunday as thousands of residents lined the main square in bursts of defiant jubilation – after President Bashar al-Assad relinquished his grip on power.

Over the past 11 days, a rebel alliance charged through Syria in the boldest challenge to the Assad rule in years – following decades of brutal reign by the Assad dynasty marked by fighting, bloodshed and an oppressive political crackdown.

“This is a regime that, for over 50 years, under the mantra of freedom, unity and socialism, oppressed, tortured and disappeared many millions in Syria.”

Now, as the anti-regime coalition starts to disband Assad’s military, and lays out its vision for a post-Assad Syria, experts wonder if the next phase will be a new dawn for a people strangled by a brutal autocracy – or whether sectarianism will bring a different type of authoritarian rule.

‘Extremely challenging’ transition of power

Jolani declared victory for the “entire Islamic nation” on Sunday, in his first public remarks since the rebel-led coup, which he said “marks a new chapter in the history of the region.”

“Syria is being purified by the grace of God Almighty and through the efforts of the heroic Mujahideen,” Jolani told a crowd at the majestic Umayyad Mosque, in Damascus. He denounced “Iranian ambitions” in Syria, where Tehran and its proxy Hezbollah were core backers of Assad’s government.

“My heart longed for this moment,” added Jolani. “There is not a single household in Syria that the war has not touched.”

Before armed fighters set off a stunning offensive last month, Assad’s chokehold had split Syrian territory among regime and rebel forces – some of which are backed by international powers, including the US and Turkey.

Soon after the fall of Damascus to southern rebels, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali pledged to cooperate with the rebels and endorse “a smooth and systematic transition of government functions” and preserve “state facilities,” in a recorded message.

Jolani echoed a similar memo, saying that all public institutions would remain under the prime minister’s jurisdiction “until they are officially handed over.” Syrian rebels also claimed that senior regime officials were preparing to defect to them in Damascus.

But delegating a new governing system will be “extremely challenging” for a “diverse coalition” of armed fighters, according to Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group.

Human rights concerns

As the rebels pressed on, so did Jolani’s charm offensive. The militant leader, who emerged as a young fighter for al-Qaeda against the US in Iraq, has sought to diminish the shadow of his extremist roots.

The United States designated HTS a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2018 and placed a $10 million bounty on Jolani.

Millions of Syrians, including those from minority Christian and other religious communities, are haunted by a legacy of persecution suffered at the hands of extremist groups like al Qaeda and ISIS. Human rights advocates have accused HTS and other anti-regime groups of cracking down on residents in areas under their control – including in the northwestern Idlib, western Homs, and Aleppo governorates – and tortured and abused dissidents.

“Anti-government armed groups have promised restraint and to uphold humanitarian norms, but they will ultimately be judged by their conduct not their words,” Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement on December 4.

In a state TV address on Sunday, a Syrian rebel commander insisted that “all sects” would be protected, adding: “Syria is for everyone, without exception … Syria is for the Sunni, the Druze, the Alawite.”

Maksad, the senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, warned the fall of the Assad regime could be a “moment of potential peril” for minority communities in the country, including religious groups like Alawites, Ismailis, Druze and Christians.

“There are concerns about the more Islamist jihadi elements of this rebel force,” he said, particularly when it comes to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the main group driving the country’s armed opposition, which has been designated a terrorist group by the US and many other countries,” said Maksad.

‘Heroic lions who made us proud’

But on the streets of Syria, such concerns were eclipsed by scenes of excitement and mass celebration. Thousands of people assembled at the foot of the main square in Damascus, where rebels ransacked Assad’s residence.

“After the fear that he (Assad) and his father made us live in for many years, and the panic and state of terror that I was living in, I can’t believe it,” Omar Daher, a 29-year-old lawyer, told the Associated Press.

Another Damascus resident, Mohammed Amer Al-Oulabi, 44, said: “From Idlib to Damascus, it only took them (the opposition forces) a few days, thank God. May God bless them, the heroic lions who made us proud.”

And further afield, Syrian refugees forced to flee the war shared their hopes of returning to a peaceful country.

“We thank our people in Syria and the free ones, for saving us from the injustice,” Wissam Ahmed, a displaced Syrian in Lebanon, told Reuters on Sunday. “We’re going to Syria, God willing, to rebuild our future and our homes. The feeling is really great, we cannot describe it more.”

This story has been updated with additional developments.

As many in Syria celebrated the end of the long rule of Bashar al-Assad, rumors swirled about his whereabouts. Russia says he fled Syria – where to exactly is unclear.

Assad has not been seen or heard from since rebels declared Damascus “liberated” after sweeping through the capital and seizing key sites. The location of his wife and two children are also not known.

Since the uprising began, and the rebels rapidly advanced through the country, Assad has kept a low profile.

After meeting with Iran’s foreign minister last weekend, he pledged to fight “terrorist organizations” but has otherwise made little comment as the rebels captured major cities.

Assad’s Presidential Guard were also no longer deployed at his usual residence, as they would be if he was there, the source said, fueling speculation ahead of Sunday’s developments that he may have escaped.

Syria’s presidential office denied that Assad had left Damascus or travelled to another country, saying that some foreign media outlets were “spreading rumors and false news.”

After the rebels took the capital, they said he had fled and were searching for him. Some of the fighters along with civilians began ransacking his official residences.

Amid the rumors, Russia’s foreign ministry issued a statement Sunday saying Assad had “decided to leave the presidential post and left the country, giving instructions to transfer power peacefully.”

The statement added that Russia “did not participate in these negotiations.”

Who might host Assad? Russia is an obvious destination, although the foreign ministry did not say where he was heading to. Iran is another possibility. Wherever he lands it is an abrupt and ignominious end to more than two decades in power.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s road to Damascus has been long. He has talked openly about his change along the way. From young al Qaeda fighter two decades ago, to rebel commander espousing sectarian tolerance.

It’s a journey along which he has had plenty of time to plan where and how he would mark his arrival, and to fine-tune his narrative – his message for those who put him in power, those who might bring him down, and others who can keep him in power.

It is no surprise that the Islamist rebel chose Damascus’s venerated Umayyad Mosque – not a TV studio, nor newly absented presidential palace, but a place of towering religious significance, which at 1,300 years old is one of the world’s most ancient mosques – to deliver that message.

“This victory, my brothers, is a victory for the entire Islamic nation,” he told his tiny entourage, who stumbled behind him against the backdrop of the mosque’s distinctive black and white stone splendor.

It was a message to all those who had taken him to power, and propelled his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters at startling speed across Syria to oust President Bashir al-Assad.

It was a message too to the newly liberated Syrians. “This victory, my brothers, by the grace of God Almighty (follows) the sacrifices of the martyrs, the widows, and the orphans. This victory, my brothers, has come through the suffering of those who endured imprisonment,” he said.

In a country where the God you chose, and how you pray, can define your class, limit your aspirations and pit you against your neighbor, Jolani sent a very clear signal in the Umayyad Mosque. He is a Sunni Muslim, part of Syria’s majority. Assad was an Alawite. There are Christians, Druze, Shia Muslims, Ismailis and more.

Yet the words he chose appeared intended to break those old bounds. “This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” he said.

Singling Iran out appears to be a message to Tehran’s theocracy – that their meddling is over, their easy land access to their mega proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon is over, their support for Syrian Hezbollah is over, and gone too is the home they once had for Iran’s weapons stockpiles.

But it is a message Jolani will know is being heard in Tel Aviv and Washington, where he is considered to be a member of a proscribed terrorist organisation with a $10 million dollar bounty on his head. A message that says to them, ‘your interests are understood in the new Syria,’ and an understanding on his part that these are the powers capable of bringing him down.

Speaking a few hours later, Biden said he had heard Jolani “saying the right things,” but insisted the rebel leader be judged by his actions.

Jolani’s message was also tuned for regional powers he’ll need to keep onside, promising to clean shop. “Syria is being purified,” he said, referring to the country’s regional reputation as a narco-state, saying Assad’s Syria had “become the world’s leading source of Captagon,” an amphetamine-type drug, and criminality through the region.

Jolani’s mosque speech was about arrival and survival. It’s his actions, though, that will secure the latter.